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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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On 9/4/2019 at 11:04 PM, Dr. Dews said:

The UL jet needs to be west of where the gfs has it.

We do have some concern that rainfall may end up higher on
Nantucket. Although it is a low chance, HREF and CAMs suggest
maximum rainfall totals could approach 5" there which would lead
to more significant poor drainage flooding. Confidence is not
high enough to issue Flash Flood Watches at this time, since we
do not see all factors coming into play that would tend to favor
excessive rainfall. This includes position of upper jet, which
will be over SNE and should keep stronger synoptic scale lift
farther offshore (as opposed to more favorable position across
northern New England), and PWATs staying just below 2" with axis
of higher moisture offshore.

 

 

 

meh

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I've got a big bike ride tomorrow morning starting at 6am from Portland and doing a loop down to Kennebunkport and back. Would be on the bike till ~2pm. I can't seem to get a decent frcst on when the rain is going to start/end. NWS calling for showers, ending by late morning, but local news saying 1"+ RN in the area we're riding. Big difference between showers here and there and steady rn. I know there will be some winds (~20kts). If it's gonna be steady rn most of the morning, I'm not going to ride. Gotta make a decision by tonight.

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18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I might catch the eye, if there still is one at that point. That's a much closer drive for me than Richmond County CB

I actually got my counties screwed up the other day. I meant Guysborough not Richmond...but either way. At least as modeled the symmetry is decent at landfall so nw quad could pack a punch. 

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

So according to my scoresheet that would put Nova Scotia ahead of SNE in hurricanes 2-0 the last twenty five years 

Yeah, I was just thinking about that.  We had 6 in the 22 years between 1938 and 1960 and a scattering until Bob in 1991 but nothing since then.  It's interesting that just as the frequency of snow storms increased in 1992 we haven't had a landfalling hurricane.  Is there a correlation?

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