Hoth Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If that had any validity or skill I would be Ecstatic Euro did pop something off the SE coast. Hard recurve would mitigate surf to some degree though. That legacy GFS would probably be a Bill redux from a waves perspective, which would be sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If that had any validity or skill I would be Ecstatic Invest 95L now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Invest 95L now.. The most likely is some mess approaches the SE probably to close to DR , Cuba or S Florida to organize and then veers NE OTS as a weak 1007 mb low imo would love this to organize earlier and away from island interference and take a more due N track for the swell train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 We could use a tropical system to follow about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 20 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: Nice Look at that path leading right to NE. Given the right circumstances this could be the year for a big one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 30, 2019 Author Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Look at that path leading right to NE. Given the right circumstances this could be the year for a big one. Would be better if we had anomalously warm waters NE of us, though, promoting slightly higher pressure and maybe stronger blocking episodes. That is nitpicky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W. As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics. I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here. Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands. It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area. Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC 3,500 K miles west. For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Greg Postel @GregPostel 3m It's worth monitoring what the models say about the large-scale circulation ("jet stream") over the eastern U.S. in the next 1-2 weeks (if, for nothing else, its potential steering of any incoming tropical systems lurking out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Any opportunities for some home grown I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: Greg Postel @GregPostel 3m It's worth monitoring what the models say about the large-scale circulation ("jet stream") over the eastern U.S. in the next 1-2 weeks (if, for nothing else, its potential steering of any incoming tropical systems lurking out there New GFS was close but it will change a 100 times between now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: New GFS was close but it will change a 100 times between now and then First time something has shown up in a few weeks, so hopefully something to start tracking over the next 10 days and leave the other folks to talk about Dews in the main thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Canadian also has something there at 240.. at this point something there is all we can ask for.. wait and see EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Home grown seems to be only threat and a modest one for next 15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Home grown seems to be only threat and a modest one for next 15 days To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time. Recurve on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Old GFS woah to bad its 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Old GFS woah to bad its 10 days away No wonder it's retired.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 I mean gfs is temping at 12z and 18z w prolly 10 foot swells from FL to Nantucket but I see this as fantasy till the king develops it past islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 Nhc gives this 70% to develop in 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2019 Author Share Posted August 1, 2019 The CV disturbance has potential, hopefully it runs silent and deep and develops later than sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 The 00Z GFS is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 6 hours ago, Nova737 said: The 00Z GFS is interesting. funny how the next run has nothing.. i'm sure it will be a CAT5 on the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: funny how the next run has nothing.. i'm sure it will be a CAT5 on the next one Exactly. :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 never too early to start tracking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Zzzzzz early Sept . Set alarm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Everyone is better off tracking siberian snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 Aug ~20th-25th should bring the seasonal ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 On 8/9/2019 at 8:47 PM, WxWatcher007 said: In New England, probably. I don’t get this it doesn’t happen in New England mantra on this forum. Everyone acts like once in 100 years is the New England norm. It’s really not though we are in a hurricane drought that will end at some point. 30 years without a hurricane is a long time. Please stop acting like we don’t get hurricanes because it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was kidding, but going nearly 30 years without a hurricane landfall kind of speaks for itself. A hurricane is always a low probability deal up here, more than just about any other stretch of the US coastline. Not so much for other impactful forms of tropical but that’s infrequent enough as well. The really high impact storms tend to be few and far between, even on the Cape and islands. For much of the 19th and early 20th century, most people were probably not even aware that they were getting hit by the remnants of a tropical system. It had been such a long time since a major strike that people largely wrote off the threat of hurricanes by the 1930s. It will be interesting to find out how woefully unprepared we are and how badly underfunded our utilities' storm sinking funds are when the next cat 2 or 3 hits us squarely on the chin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now