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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

another tease job 

mmm... nope. 

Tease requires it were ever suggested otherwise - ...the "crowd noise" may have tenor'ed in such a way that that allowed people to get carried away in hope ( not atypical for the obsessive "lensing" that goes on in here )  - or, the interpretation was just off period.  When either happens ... reality loses the battle. 

Either way, the models have never made this a threat here ...not really.. and the surrounding pattern didn't/doesn't really support it either.  

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Now this is how you get it done ...

Negative anomaly NW/ positive anomaly NE...   'cane has no other choice - 

the only problem here is... it's 370 hours away 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_64.png

My god what a disaster the end of that run was. Like 8+" of rain softening up the ground before the wind takes it all down. Thank goodness it's just a fantasy. That's how James loses his Patriots season.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm... nope. 

Tease requires it were ever suggested otherwise - ...the "crowd noise" may have tenor'ed in such a way that that allowed people to get carried away in hope ( not atypical for the obsessive "lensing" that goes on in here )  - or, the interpretation was just off period.  When either happens ... reality loses the battle. 

Either way, the models have never made this a threat here ...not really.. and the surrounding pattern didn't/doesn't really support it either.  

but the one you posted, the 300+ GFS, you now have teased us.. we are expecting it in 15 days.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

My god what a disaster the end of that run was. Like 8+" of rain softening up the ground before the wind takes it all down. Thank goodness it's just a fantasy. 

Are your sure ...  denuding the cape of all infrastructure may mean a whole winter without OES updates - 

 

 

j/k James

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

but the one you posted, the 300+ GFS, you now have teased us.. we are expecting it in 15 days.

I have no idea if ur kidding here or not... but ...no just in case

that's not teasing - it's "how you get it done" - it's a good example -

I said nothing about whether that happens or not.   just sayn' 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are your sure ...  denuding the cape of all infrastructure may mean a whole winter without OES updates - 

 

 

j/k James

I'm just morbidly curious what kind of numbers the Mt Washington observatory would put up in a scenario like that.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have no idea if ur kidding here or not... but ...no just in case

that's not teasing - it's "how you get it done" - it's a good example -

I said nothing about whether that happens or not.   just sayn' 

kidding of course, come on, you must know me better by now.  I'm not that much of a weenie.. 

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Dorian racking up the ACE for the Atlantic and still has a way to go. Should join the pretty exclusive list of Hurricanes producing more then 40 ACE. 

 

Year Storm# Name Dates TC Active Max Wind (kts) MSLP (mb) Named Storm Days Hurricane Days Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy
2019 1 ANDREA 5/20-5/21 35 1006 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4
2019 2 BARRY 7/11-7/14 65 993 3.50 0.25 0.00 3.3
2019 3 CHANTAL 8/21-8/21 35 1009 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.5
2019 4 DORIAN 8/24-9/3 160 910 10.00 6.00 4.00 35.0
2019 5 ERIN 8/28-8/28 35 1005 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4

 

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55 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I just got my first "slap" ever in Dorian thread.
Elinor, not that she needs defending was disparaged big time. I was just wanting to set the record.
What has become of the forum?
Kind of pissed me off...no matter...
Anyway, it's a beautiful day here in between the feeder bands that have now descended upon my area. Each one more intense then the previous. One is about to spin through in a few minutes. It ain't over in fact only just begun. Feeling grateful for what could have been to now what I think will be.  

Thats not Elinor. Its Zach...he was a bit of teen genius from the old board that has seemed to go the way of weirdness ala Chuck. Elinor is Turtle not Turtle Hurricane. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor :)  

It's been years Paul...my bad all around... I done did defend a faux member, no matter. Nobody should be called-out like that or what transpired. 
Power is coming and going. It's fragile to begin with being in the forest.
Been through worse in a good N'oreaster.

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

Was posted earlier on Twitter

 

 

Persons staying at the Central Abaco Primary School during the storm when it was compromised was moved to a new shelter location. Central Abaco Primary School had structural failures.

They don't say what location they got moved to.

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