rclab Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: They were renting that one, IIRC. But they bought a fixer-upper in Park Slope about 30-years ago. I think they'll do okay when they sell/move in a couple years when they retire. $$$ Park slope houses also generate multi seven figure prices. They will be more than fine if they choose to sell. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep, I know. That turbulence would be insane. Every 5 seconds I would be in panic mode thinking the plane was going down....while the rest of the crew are openly laughing at me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL. This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoth said: Maybe we get that PRE after all. We'll definitely need to see a more stout s/w so as to pump heights to the NE. Otherwise it'd confined to far SE areas, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: We'll definitely need to see a more stout s/w so as to pump heights to the NE. Otherwise it'd confined to far SE areas, if at all. Agreed. Gotta watch that and trough orientation, as Tippy mentioned earlier. Not expecting anything, but it's quite a spectacle regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame. Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Semblance of a double eye wall... ERC nearing ? In any case, one must wonder what the status of Great Abaco island and Grand Bahama will look like when the sun rises over the aftermath ... days from now. I wonder if some of those cays might get denuded down to high tide sandbars.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Just thinking back whence .... as little as two weeks ago, how quiet the tropical Atlantic was. Some observationally sensitive designations to date, otherwise ... at the time rendered completely silent. Posts were matriculating in about the year without a season - if not explicitly stated, the tenor certainly palpable. Now, we have this Category 5 bomb and a constellation of other Invests between the GOM and Cape Verdi... It's not just the Atlantic, either. The western Pacific is suddenly bubbling with Invests, too... It's almost like some phenomenon must have passed over the whole planetary troposphere and proverbially uncapped it everywhere, simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Semblance of a double eye wall... ERC nearing ? In any case, one must wonder what the status of Great Abaco island and Grand Bahama will look like when the sun rises over the aftermath ... days from now. I wonder if some of those cays might get denuded down to high tide sandbars.. Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Can someone explain why when the GFS or many of the other models initialize, that the pressure reading is nowhere near the actual? It shows Dorian strengthening while it is more likely to be weakening as it moves north, especially from where the intensity is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 James going to get raked this run of the 00z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: James going to get raked this run of the 00z GFS lol Way west this run- only 100 mi off the elbow. Probably extratropical by then, although still near hurricane strength. ACK with close to 24 hrs of tropical storm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 I'm headed down to CC to board up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 Dorian misses the entire SE US coast by a hair, and is later captured/catapulted into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 This is tantalizingly close to a capture by that weakness heading over the great lakes.......man....lots to work out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Man, Grand Bahama just getting torn a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Man, those poor people have been getting raked. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Bands here in Stuart (Arundel Section) started last night and continue today with winds 15-20, gusting to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, Modfan said: Bands here in Stuart (Arundel Section) started last night and continue today with winds 15-20, gusting to 30. Go say hi to Cantore on the beach in Stuart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I think it unlikely Dorian will continue to endure with the same structural integrity as indicated in the 5 am NHC advisory. (165 mph and 916 mb of central pressure) Over the course of the day ... it quite possible Dorian will become increasingly victimized by its own impact to the environment in which it depends. Interestingly metaphoric, too ... as hurricanes are a lot like Humanity in that regard - they both must keep moving and exploring new resources of/for energy lest they fester and rot in one place for having profligately chewed through their resources. interesting - I realize the impertinent jest of a weakening Dorian must come along as a disappointment equal in proportion to the specter of the bomb its self ... But, for those who privately covet a fantasy where Dorian drills a hole completely thru to the core of the Earth... causing the planet to fracture and calve into two distinct pieces that go on to finally just disintegrate into a new asteroid belt, the reality is, the cyclone is nearly stationary over a region where the sea slopes deeply on the N side of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco. That steeper, deeper incline probably means cooler water plumb is accessing due to upwelling/ turbulent overturning etc. We'll "sea" how it goes but I bet this thing has maxed - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Id probably go 45/35/20 for landfall probs in NL, NS, and out to sea. Theres still a lot of lowering of heights in Atlantic Canada ahead of Dorian that make me hesitant to believe in the further west tracks like the gfs and the ukmet even with the partial phase from the clipper out of eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 The COTI ensemble track blend followed by the UKMET have been the best verifying pieces of guidance for Dorian at 120 hours so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Gfs is quite a storm here. Not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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