Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2019 Author Share Posted September 1, 2019 20'+ surge, but the wave heights though?? at 25' asl.? Is that really what Josh planned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Recon was finding cat 5 winds on almost every pass last night. Definitely should have been Mm.. not really. Probably the biggest problem is allowing the mainstream civilian have access to up to the moment data .. that includes you and I unfortunately There are all kinds of false -flags in these reading technologies, particularly near the boundary between categories... We don't notice them so much when it's in the middle of a category, because we have "wind width" to fiddle with, such that noisy fluctuations are not even being noticed. But when a system being measured only has 5 mph of wind potential from being redefined up or down, there is going to be noise in the data that flops over the boundary - piggy-backed on these measuring trips, there are evolved corroborative methodology, and if those fail than there's no move to re-designate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Jesus, 175 sustained, gusts over 200. And every indication that its not done strengthening yet. My guess is it maxes at 205 ...central pressure of 882 mb.... Then, turns N and bottle rockets to Montreal, Quebec with such rapidity as to make it the first TC ever to succeed the 40th parallel as a Category 5 hurricane - ...Upon reanalysis, it becomes incontrovertibly necessary to redesignate, "HURRICANE JAMES" ... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: My guess is it maxes at 205 ...central pressure of 882 mb.... Then, turns N and bottle rockets to Montreal, Quebec with such rapidity as to make it the first TC ever to succeed the 40th parallel as a Category 5 hurricane - ...Upon reanalysis, it becomes incontrovertibly necessary to redesignate, "HURRICANE JAMES" ... Cape Cod permanently relocated to the Bay of Fundy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Cape Cod permanently relocated to the Bay of Fundy. the Gulf Stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Woah GFS getting close to a James dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Woah GFS getting close to a James dream Fun for Nantucket verbatim. That low in the Great Lakes would make this potentially a little more interesting. No reason to get aroused yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Woah GFS getting close to a James dream HA HA HA toldya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Seriously though .. the timing of Dorian's 'would-be' trough interaction with the westerlies' amplitude scheduled into the Lakes technically begins ~ 4 days from this 12z cycle. Considering the source, the operational GFS, that's only moderately confidence instilling - I'd say if the Euro starts sniffing out a closer pass that is coherently due to having a stronger trough incursion into the western OV longitudes on it's rendition of D4/5, otherwise ... it's just the GFS being the GFS. The problem is... in baser concept that trough is too flat and longitudinally oriented...such that when Dorian gets anywhere closer to ... roughly the VA Capes longitudes it should already be turning NE/ENE on a London trajectory that would put a Boeing Air Bus in envy - These models that are continuing to lift Dorian "tantalizingly" closer to eastern New England and NS appear to be doing so too much relative to that "flat" character of the open wave tough structure. But, that could be rendered moot either way if said trough gets spatially more amplified ( i.e., N-S meridian flow ), which unfortunately cannot be ruled out absolutely at this time range - but the Euro is getting ready to cross into it's wheel-house ...hence the sniffing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seriously though .. the timing of Dorian's 'would-be' trough interaction with the westerlies' amplitude scheduled into the Lakes technically begins ~ 4 days from this 12z cycle. Considering the source, the operational GFS, that's only moderately confidence instilling - I'd say if the Euro starts sniffing out a closer pass that is coherently due to having a stronger trough incursion into the western OV longitudes on it's rendition of D4/5, otherwise ... it's just the GFS being the GFS. The problem is... in baser concept that trough is too flat and longitudinally oriented...such that when Dorian gets anywhere closer to ... roughly the VA Capes longitudes it should already be turning NE/ENE on a London trajectory that would put a Boeing Air Bus in envy - These models that are continuing to lift Dorian "tantalizingly" closer to eastern New England and NS appear to be doing so too much relative to that "flat" character of the open wave tough structure. But, that could be rendered moot either way if said trough gets spatially more amplified ( i.e., N-S meridian flow ), which unfortunately cannot be ruled out absolutely at this time range - but the Euro is getting ready to cross into it's wheel-house ...hence the sniffing - Agreed. I think the only thing we'll experience up here is Steve posting pictures of some unremarkable swells from Misquamicut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: My guess is it maxes at 205 ...central pressure of 882 mb.... Then, turns N and bottle rockets to Montreal, Quebec with such rapidity as to make it the first TC ever to succeed the 40th parallel as a Category 5 hurricane - ...Upon reanalysis, it becomes incontrovertibly necessary to redesignate, "HURRICANE JAMES" ... Thanks Tip. My neighborhoods name changes to the Isle Of Cobble and I end up with 24 feet of waterfront or in property. My thoughts and hope are for all those in its path, Josh included. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Gfs is tantalizingly close for James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Some notables... 185 mph/ 911 mb ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Can you imagine if Dorian just circular-sanded ( formulate sound of power tool in head while reading this ...) the entire Grand Bahama island down to a sandbar - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Really such an impressive system, the coastal hugger before a recurve scenario would be quite the lucky break for millions on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said: Really such an impressive system, the coastal hugger before a recurve scenario would be quite the lucky break for millions on the east coast. Mm... Interesting. a "long time lurker" without publishing? or, B, a new exposure to this micro- zeitgeist and therefore green to the particular, more important, peculiar, social-media group... If the former, you should know better ( by now ) than to level a responsible, compassionate resolve for the well-fair of others at this particular group of return concentrated dystopian weirdos. Any reduction in the implication of any kind of Dorian-esque specter for that matter, will not be tolerated. I agree though... There's probably already catastrophic x-y-z happening to a-b-c on the Cays and Islands down there already ... but if we can mitigate beyond that by having Dorian's worst impact on the proper U.S. being drug -withdraw symptoms by said dystopian lusters, we're far better off. That way we may not have to also bear the equally powerful winds of AGW'ing's tie-in causality that's already on mass-media's drafting boards, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Agreed. I think the only thing we'll experience up here is Steve posting pictures of some unremarkable swells from Misquamicut. I never post unremarkable swell pics my boy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... Interesting. a "long time lurker" without publishing? or, B, a new exposure to this micro- zeitgeist and therefore green to the particular, more important, peculiar, social-media group... If the former, you should know better ( by now ) than to level a responsible, compassionate resolve for the well-fair of others at this particular group of return concentrated dystopian weirdos. Any reduction in the implication of any kind of Dorian-esque specter for that matter, will not be tolerated. I agree though... There's probably already catastrophic x-y-z happening to a-b-c on the Cays and Islands down there already ... but if we can mitigate beyond that but having Dorian's worst impact on the proper U.S. being drug -withdraw symptoms by said dystopian lusters that we may not have to also bear the equally powerful winds of AGW'ing's tie-in causality that's already on mass-media's drafting boards, too - Oh I’ve been around for a while and made my account back in 2012 around Sandy Madness, but I changed my name after moving to NH. I’m mostly into winter weather as many in our region are, but I’ve always found the tropics (and their historical impacts up here) interesting. I know the general vibe our subculture, but I figure no one up here will mind a comment like that since there’s no meaningful reason to be invested in a SNE impact at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said: Oh I’ve been around for a while and made my account back in 2012 around Sandy Madness, but I changed my name after moving to NH. I’m mostly into winter weather as many in our region are, but I’ve always found the tropics (and their historical impacts up here) interesting. I know the general vibe our subculture, but I figure no one up here will mind a comment like that since there’s no meaningful reason to be invested in a SNE impact at this point. That may not be entiiirely correct I'm waitin' on the Euro... If the GFS is right, this is probably one of the more costly devastating events in U.S. history. It tries to maintain upper tier power post land interaction as it then rolls up the eastern seaboard on the beach the whole way to Cape Hatteras .. a considerable tick west of priors. I mentioned earlier that the Euro run may be telling as to how much Dorian interacts with that trough in the Lakes - that's going to be key in the cyclones polarward behavior as it stands now... Canadian takes Dorion along a coastal scraping ( west adjusted...) from the central Penn. of Fl, implicating a mincemeat stewing of (natural ecology + man made obliteration)/2 down there, but then a more pallid version but problematic nonetheless all the way to Cape Cod... just missing SE but probably close enough that surf/tide may be an issue - unknown... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Unfukin real, somebody is going to be in the eyewall of a 185 mph cane for 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I’m actually shocked they could get that video out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Euro further west with a direct hit at Cape Hatteras with a strengthening system after weakening further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Wow that's was almost a James special. Might have to pay attention to this afterall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Well... I'll take a look - is if my opinion matters..heh. But, "if" the Euro indeed is/has trended west ...that may not be a trend that is final. We are on the D4/5 temporal relay out there between Hatteras and Cape Cod...which is where/when the Lakes amplitude in the westerlies' critical system interaction details will be occurring, details that are very sensitive to minute perturbations that cannot possibly be assessed at this time... That's all code for yeah... may be worth it to watch. But I wouldn't bust out the dystopian lootion and most towels just yet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 OSU gets blown off the rock on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: OSU gets blown off the rock on that run. Dorian's phase transition to extratropical is nothing shy of extraordinary ! It may enough be simultaneously both for several hours, with such an unusually hot, warm secluded core surrounded, by a rampart of baroclinic dynamics... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Those stadium effect pics posted by the AF recon planes are sick. I can’t imagine purposely flying into that. Getting anxiety just thinking about it - haha. Amazing what those pilots/planes can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Looks like a Cat 5, possibly the fifth time President Trump has heard of one for the 1st time: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I see they got their cat 5 over in the main thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Dorian could be a woman too...Years ago on One life To Live (ABC SOAP) there was a character Dorian Lord and she was really mean..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now