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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where is the post?

What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay)

You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match :D

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You want to really know who's going to see some Sci-Fi action with this storm? Try being right on the Great Guana Cay north of Abaco Sunday at 1PM. Now that is a place to be to see Dorian it's most deadliest. Try your best to take pictures a BE SAFE!!!:twister:

 

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I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

 

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

 

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

I do agree got to watch it but as of now no big deal

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay)

You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match :D

ARE you cheetah?

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48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf ;)

Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL.  That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.

 

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

They should've  last night... 

What ...why?

Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? 

This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha...  jesus guys.  It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner -

I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Jesus, 175 sustained, gusts over 200. And every indication that its not done strengthening yet.

For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in
intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the
interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the
hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along
or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast
to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening.
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17 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

 

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

Lol - why exactly? 

..I mean, other than it seems tauntingly deliberate as to shirk on one's ability to jolt dystopian "joy" circuitry with the sought after dopamine -

It's okay not to buy that solution ... but I'm not sure the former "oddity" of modeled track actually should logically precipitate the latter conclusion.   Fact of that matter is... if one were to take any 'missing' parabolically recurving trajectory and redraw it, it would look similar... Just because this one happens to be doing so 20 or 30 miles off shore the whole way is just purely of function of where that is happening.. But they all turn and high-tale it to the graveyard eventually -

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What ...why?

Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? 

This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha...  jesus guys.  It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner -

I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times

Recon was finding cat 5 winds on almost every pass last night. Definitely  should have been

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20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in
intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the
interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the
hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along
or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast
to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening.

Yeah, I was speaking in the immediate timeframe. Up to 180 and 913mb at 11. Beast is bombing out. Incidentally, this thing has been remarkably free from ERC interruption. I know it's instant weenie tag material to suggest such a thing, but where does one find data to support annular structure? I just see the thick eye wall with little powerful outer banding, no secondary wind maxima, relatively little cirrus outflow compared to many storms of this intensity, no disruption at all while passing over water with lower heat content yesterday and axisymmetric appearance as interesting. No idea what else goes into that determination though. 

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