Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 Floyd 20 year anniversary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Where is the post? What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay) You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 You want to really know who's going to see some Sci-Fi action with this storm? Try being right on the Great Guana Cay north of Abaco Sunday at 1PM. Now that is a place to be to see Dorian it's most deadliest. Try your best to take pictures a BE SAFE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 This cane is HAWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE. I do agree got to watch it but as of now no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay) You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match ARE you cheetah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville. Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf Florida could still get hit in my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL. That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods. I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 the bickering in the main thread over mph vs knots and is it a 4 or 5....hilarious I did like that it was called a stud of a cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Fringed on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Yea wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Looks like NHC finally pulled the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Looks like NHC finally pulled the trigger. They should've last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Great Abaco will be devastated. Good luck to Josh and all of the residents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Great Abaco will be devastated. Good luck to Josh and all of the residents Yeah, that is one scary looking cane. Insane eye wall and no sign of stronger outer banding usurping it. I would be shitting a brick if I lived on the mid-coast of Florida too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Jesus, 175 sustained, gusts over 200. And every indication that its not done strengthening yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I won't be surprised if Josh doesn't make it, or he gets seriously injured. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I won't be surprised if Josh doesn't make it, or he gets seriously injured. He’ll be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: They should've last night... What ...why? Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha... jesus guys. It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner - I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Now up to 180 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Jesus, 175 sustained, gusts over 200. And every indication that its not done strengthening yet. For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 17 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE. Lol - why exactly? ..I mean, other than it seems tauntingly deliberate as to shirk on one's ability to jolt dystopian "joy" circuitry with the sought after dopamine - It's okay not to buy that solution ... but I'm not sure the former "oddity" of modeled track actually should logically precipitate the latter conclusion. Fact of that matter is... if one were to take any 'missing' parabolically recurving trajectory and redraw it, it would look similar... Just because this one happens to be doing so 20 or 30 miles off shore the whole way is just purely of function of where that is happening.. But they all turn and high-tale it to the graveyard eventually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 34.93" Start low...we can always go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Concrete shelters above 25 feet will be the only way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What ...why? Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha... jesus guys. It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner - I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times Recon was finding cat 5 winds on almost every pass last night. Definitely should have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Ugh I have a sinking feeling about what Josh is going through right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening. Yeah, I was speaking in the immediate timeframe. Up to 180 and 913mb at 11. Beast is bombing out. Incidentally, this thing has been remarkably free from ERC interruption. I know it's instant weenie tag material to suggest such a thing, but where does one find data to support annular structure? I just see the thick eye wall with little powerful outer banding, no secondary wind maxima, relatively little cirrus outflow compared to many storms of this intensity, no disruption at all while passing over water with lower heat content yesterday and axisymmetric appearance as interesting. No idea what else goes into that determination though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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