Modfan Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Right eye wall The only saving grace is we have 3-4 day a for it to adjust; praying GFS is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, Modfan said: The only saving grace is we have 3-4 day a for it to adjust; praying GFS is wrong It will be but further S track the euro depicts ain’t much better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Big drop in pressure tonightSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 GFS MLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Big drop in pressure tonight Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk down to 973mb 100 mph. Per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: What do we know about that HMON model ? It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool. The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained... It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too. Oper. Euro and so forth. Its the old gfdl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Hwrf has better scores than the hmon for track...and hwrf is the best model of all for intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 HWRF A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP. Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR, propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank. My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike. Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck. Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday. I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again. As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: HWRF A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP. Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR, propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank. My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike. Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck. Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday. I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again. As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week! stay safe......still time left models everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Regardless of modeling, August has been a wet month for St Lucie County South to Palm Beach; we don't need any more rain. Currently getting bands of showers and storms pin wheeling in of the ocean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Best of luck to both of you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Yikes NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 EURO was just close to nailing us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: EURO was just close to nailing us.. That was a Donna track displaced a bit east. Not buying it, but we watch all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Devastating situation for Grand Bahama with how it practically stalls over the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Yikes NHC New prediction from NHC, same wind speed. @modfan where are you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Yikes, a friend of mine has a flight to Orlando on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 If Dorian does that to Florida, I hope at least he buys her dinner first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Looks like eye is starting to form on Dorian per sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 New 12 Z prediction by NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Has DisneyWorld been directly threatened by a storm of this magnitude in recent memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dpb1983 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Hi-Res NAM has Dorian bottoming out at 885 MB over the Bahamas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 HMON has a 3-hour intensification rate of 10 mb by 20+ knots of wind... dropping from just under 970 mb to the upper 950s with wind from 99 knots to 121. And it doesn't stop there. Another three hours and it's down to 950 mb by 130 knots! That's ah ... heh. The only problem is ... it has it doing that now - which it isn't. Interesting... I mean it may be intensifying, it's the rate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Euro just south of the benchmark at 192. Plenty of time to back it NW a bit and get some good snows west of the river. Rain for James. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Looks like Dorian may miss Florida. I had not paid any attention to the storm for us New Englanders but just looked at the Euro and it has Dorian as a 950mb cane just barely off Cape Hatteras to SE of the benchmark to about Eastport Maine. Just close enough for James to honk a little. Should be some nice surf on south facing beaches next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 30, 2019 Author Share Posted August 30, 2019 The model hugging in the main thread is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: The model hugging in the main thread is atrocious. FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Main thread is much better than someone constantly posting about high dews. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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