weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 28 minutes ago, MarkO said: BOston to Orlando Saturday and return flight on Monday $300. Who's in? I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 We might get the remnants as usual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Looks like Florida has a big ol bullseye on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We might get the remnants as usual.. Look at the gfs and legacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Certainly a bit of a clown solution on 12Z GFS. Crazy to look at but not worth seriously talking about atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Look at the gfs and legacy 12z at hour 312? lol - Looks fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Not a great swell producer for Long Island and New England. Its an issue of fetch more so then strength. The tiny size just isn’t going to cut it for creating much swell with periods over 12 seconds. Any captured fetch will be aimed towards the SE. I still think we see some swell with sets to maybe 5-6’ for south facing beaches. But with swell periods below 13 seconds beach washovers and erosion seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 lol the GFS.....thats ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I like the 12Z GFS run. >:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I'm always suspect of solutions showing a storm meandering along the east coast for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 33 minutes ago, ice1972 said: lol the GFS.....thats ridiculous They should just cut that model off at like 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Modfan said: As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track. Best of luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, Modfan said: As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track. Check out the UKMET it has been nailing the track so far. It also has a second LF near Pensacola at 902 , dont know about that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 12z GFS bufkit for MCO is a disaster. Over 10'' of rain and winds gusting over 70 knots for quite a duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Euro slower stronger further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Into the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Sandy's modeled trajectory was scheduled to do something similar to that EPS cluster and we all know that it wound up taking the southern route.. just sayn' No analog per se, but sometimes it's hard to imagine thing and maybe that would help - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though. oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Matthew redeaux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 12z Euro ensembles take Dorian couple hundred miles offshore from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 18Z is a @Modfannightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 This could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z is a @Modfannightmare Whatcha you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 What do we know about that HMON model ? It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool. The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained... It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too. Oper. Euro and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Modfan said: Whatcha you seeing? Right eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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