STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week. Such a monster storm . Waste of swell potential here given recurve at 45 W ....could of been huge i see maybe 3.5-4.5 @ 17 seconds on bouys in a week-10 day’s Humberto delivered 9 @ 12.8 seconds in Rye NH last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Such a monster storm . Waste of swell potential here given recurve at 45 W ....could of been huge i see maybe 3.5-4.5 @ 17 seconds on bouys in a week-10 day’s Humberto delivered 9 @ 12.8 seconds in Rye NH last weekend Yeah, that seems about right. The amazing thing about. Swell with periods of 15+ seconds is the amount of energy they contain. Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger. So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell. Lucky for me on of the best on the east coast south of RI happens to be clos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 This tropical season reminds me of last winter....ton of activity and looks fine from afar, but few systems took a favorable track. 1995 like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: . Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger. So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell. When I think nice long period swell I look at the YouTube vids of perfect storm sending humongous NE swell down into Palm beach Surprising many . Accounts of one day had 3-4 foot NE swell jacking up to 20 feet on bouys by Afternoonin Palm beach from perfect storm far away 18 feet @20 seconds was peak swell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Looking at model runs on Lorenzo, a few recurve west towards Labrador/Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 5 hours ago, Modfan said: Looking at model runs on Lorenzo, a few recurve west towards Labrador/Canada Are you sailing to the Flemish cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Time to stick a fork in the tropical season for another year it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Time to stick a fork in the tropical season for another year it seems Lol...this can be said for almost every year up here in SNE. Who knows, maybe we get surprised with a rogue storm that gets in here?? As we all know/and can remember, October can be volatile when it wants to be... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 50 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Time to stick a fork in the tropical season for another year it seems "September remember; October all-over" ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" This is the Opal time of year. Home growns, as it were... Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows... That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin might have been a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: "September remember; October all-over" ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" This the Opal time of year. Home growns, as it were... Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows... That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin as that one appeared to be a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A... I was hoping to book a last minute vacation to the Outer Banks, October can be wonderful or dreadful down there....I have been watching closely for next week, the front looks like it is going to get hung up somewhere along the east coast, I wonder if something tries to develop next week along that front, somewhere along the SE coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Spanks45 said: I was hoping to book a last minute vacation to the Outer Banks, October can be wonderful or dreadful down there....I have been watching closely for next week, the front looks like it is going to get hung up somewhere along the east coast, I wonder if something tries to develop next week along that front, somewhere along the SE coast? Maybe ... I'm not sure how well the model performance is for those specific facet regions/ways in which these cyclones formulate - so if they are latching onto anything now, I'm not an authority on anything. I just know the climate regions. I mean ... a front meandering down there and book-ending a low that starts going out of control is bit different causally/physically in the models than a CV wave kiting westward along the 15th parallel ... couple K east of the Windwards. Different atmospheric kinematics. I will say, ...I was singularly impressed with the handling of Lorenzo in the models... particularly the Euro! It flagged that thing closing off and deepening smartly some six days prior to it emerging off the coast of Sierra Leone. No problem - nailed it. Actually the other guidance latched on early too... just happen to notice the Euro first so not sure who/what really gets the trophy. But this has been true in recent seasons... We're probably ... oh somewhere in the 50% success for spin-rate vs phantoms ...compared to back in the 1990s - you didn't dare enter a cumulus cloud into the modeling grids or you'd wipe islands off the face of the Earth. Seems the models have improved overall with genesis points... That said, yeah...I've been noticing a tendency for cyclonic curvature between the Gulf and Bermuda.. I'm also noticing - as I discussed elsewhere - this propensity for over-top high pressure to spread ESE from Canada through NE and the lower Maritimes.. That preponderant activity is putting enhanced baroclinicity and enhanced easterly trades in general into that same region. These are not altogether bad omens for development prospect so maybe keep and eye on things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Rye on the rocks nicely positioned to se SE long period swell boom Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 I'm in England this week. Maybe I'll meet up with what's left of Lorenzo this weekend! Sent from my LG-M322 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Let's hope for a hybrid this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Move on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Move on. This topic having 52 pages is LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 In Manchester until Monday. I'm in the cone!Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 Belfast banger....even the UK can score one but we can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Lol 52 pages of wasted zeros and ones in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 11 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: Belfast banger....even the UK can score one but we can't You're our new offa king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: You're our new offa king. or Ulster Scot peasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 17 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1 Interesting. It does make sense to me. There been a lot of talk about IKE (integrated kinetic energy) over the last several years to get such to get a more accurate idea for damage assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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