Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tons of spread.. do you have 12z? Spread and mean are east from 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Theres very likely to be a tropical cyclone their guys .. that’s the least uncertain part. Like you said before the pattern isn't conducive as depicted right now for a NE cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Spread and mean are east from 12 Z Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Hopefully the trough catches this. Boring weather up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully the trough catches this. Boring weather up here. Ya I agree. Chances are very low as we all know. But it’s a boring time of year for weather enthusiasts. I’ve never been a big fan of September. Summer trying to hang on, and autumn can’t quite get a grip on us yet...like you said, SOOO Boring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 ICON now going ots. Almost bet Euro will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 GFS starting to cave.. but still over Florida. Old GFS caving even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON now going ots. Almost bet Euro will follow 8-9 days away...can you really trust any output at this far of a lead??? i mean if you bet OTS ...you’re gonna be right 95% of the time, or more. So I guess that’s the way to lean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 00z Ukmet has the a strong storm out about 100 NM west of Bermuda at t+144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Euro well east. EPS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Hard to believe that Euro depiction of landfall in NJ from yesterday prob won't happen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 It's still the follow up system that should be watched. The east coast looks fairly exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Zero chance with this first system. It would have to be from another system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Deflector shields to maximum, Mr. Sulu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Deflector shields to maximum, Mr. Sulu. Lol....exactly. Nothing! And I Mean Nothing gets up and in here that’s Tropical!! Next?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Looks like a bit of a loop se then s May occur N/NE of Bahamas (Well SE of Carolinas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 I think I might have developed tropical suppression depression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 There was no "party" to begin with. I remember when I was 14 years old... the weather forecaster would mention a snow storm or tornado along the way of their broadcast, through a din of qualifiers signifying remoteness ... But I didn't often hear much less register those qualifiers in my auditory sensory processors in my shimmering sophistication as an observer back then... The next days always dawned jilted - Going forward... a would-be Humberto (?) is a good candidate for a looper. I realize no model is really doing that, but, I could see this thing being reasonably well-handled over these next three days ...then it starts moving ENE away...only to get abandoned by the trough as it flattens over the top of the west-Atl Basin STR. It then moves ESE then S ... talking some 8 days out... the models having shown poor ability to adjust/correct toward such a behavior for the obvious reasons. Speculation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Looks like we've entered the phase of development where the zygote TC spits out meso-vortices... Meanwhile, hi res vis imagery looks animate what appears to be a mid-level curl beginning to more observerably fold cyclonically inward about 60 or so naut miles ENE of the midriff Bahama archipelago - The models will likely play the blind initialization game in the initializations; until they're nailing down something more of an entity in that matrix ...any and all behavior obviously comes along with a caveat emptor. IT does bring up an interesting question for these early stages of development with these things... The tropical physical model of TC's is one heavily coupled to the sea/llvs ... but, it does some times seem as though the mid levels have a role in where the low lvl centers get "picked" hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Should see different solutions until models initialize correctly.. recon found the center east.. but as of now looks like it's for the fishes or Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 number one to many are going with out to sea which i dont support and jb doesnt either. The one behind it will be big has lot of water to get strong already big that far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Canes like Islands 2 fer Bermuda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Canes like Islands 2 fer Bermuda EPS and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE. also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: EPS and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE. also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure.. Doesn't matter where the center is with the hemispheric setup for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region. Nothing... We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario. Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though. In fact, the opposite. In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...) JB? ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: EPS and GEFS still have members making a sharp turn and bringing it close to SNE. also some EPS members ots or in the Gulf.. all are still at play until models latch onto a center and strength.. still think we wait until Sunday to know for sure.. it's over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 It never was/began lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Is this the system in the Bahamas or the one further out in the Atlantic expected to develop? That’s the one I thought may have the slightly better chance to impact someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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