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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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56 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It sucks that most normal people (or all other Presidents) would’ve just said, “since I was last briefed the models changed course to the East and Alabama won’t be impacted luckily.”  End of story instead of doubling and tripling down to prove correctness...eventually ending with the local NWS taking the fall in an unsigned statement.  

But the reasoning for not being able to just admit that is going to be the study of Graduate level Psychology students. 

It's because he has a need to be right about everything 100% of the time. Smartest man in the room syndrome. For all we know Alabama trounced some team that he is a fan of.

 

59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It sucks that most normal people (or all other Presidents) would’ve just said, “since I was last briefed the models changed course to the East and Alabama won’t be impacted luckily.”  End of story instead of doubling and tripling down to prove correctness...eventually ending with the local NWS taking the fall in an unsigned statement.  

But the reasoning for not being able to just admit that is going to be the study of Graduate level Psychology students. 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was attempting to poke the dwindling Trump supporter hornets nest.  It's encouraging - actually - that there was not more in the way of typical knee jerk reactions from my doing so - but that could also be a reflection of anyone actually reading what I write.  Ha!  The real story there is the apparent spat between the NWS and NOAA. 

First, NOAA appears to have tried to come to Trump's defense, and as the story espouses, this was in bad taste to the NWS.  Others should read and judge for themselves, but do so with the usual caveat emptor in mind that you are consuming any information at all via the modern tech-based-societal circuitry of shimmering morality and ethical standards for which information ownership-to-delivery, is now conveyed ...

( ...in other words ... don't )

But the NWS' Dan Sobian followed up with,  .. Let me assure you the hard working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight #NOAA,.."  ( c/o CNN).  Be that as it may, the gist of, "https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/noaa-tweet-nws-trump-alabama/index.html"

Granted, CNN is pretty shamelessly socially engineering it's headline practices these days.  So often I attempt to corroborate their story and contents against ..oh say, your NPR's and GBH's of those organizational ilk. It is coherent that CNN's headlines and even embedded prose delivery is spinning. Somewhere along the way ... "corporate media" sold out and began targeting an Americana, a population that is now too dumb'ed down by modern conveniences to think for themselves and need a f'n Venn diagram just to tie their goddamn shoes and will believe anything for someone else's profit ... Either that, or the idio'sphere has always just been an untapped resource to target manipulation for the same ending goal ... now merely exposed by connectivity ( I kinda like that, too). 

But I digress.   Point being, the whole "dispute," aspect should be taken with a grain'.  ...comes across as though NOAA is jumping on the sword for Trump ...which, amazes me.  Why in the f anyone breathing would sacrifice anything in the observable Universe for that c-s!ckr is so far beyond logic that the whole thing must be in suspicion as a "trumped" up story - who knows what really went down. 

 

Maybe Trump threatened to assign them to Muslim Outreach duties in the Middle East like Obama did to NASA. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeah, but in your defense ... that's sooo typical of that administration's tact - or has been to date... Fire anyone of rank and file, that offers the mere impropriety of opposition to the perspectives of the cadre, in lieu of hiring anyone that in fact supports said intentions -

What do we call that class  ? 

FAscism!

Very good - y'all get a A.

What?  Are we in the weeds - we can't f'n see this happening?  

Heh... western civilization ( actually, human beings) really now has a substantive reason for doom prophesy.  The era of the street-corner sign waving, auto-dismissive cookery is gone.  Our species is earmarked for extinction, or in the least ... a population correction, one so magnificent as to be too untenable and therefore ... escaping any affecting/effective meaning - hence the ease in denial. It's easy to deny something that has no meaning - perfect catch-22. 

So, lets clap hands chew bubble gum and watch porn - cuz as Ebonic wisdom always most succinctly put, we be f'ed anyway. 

Strongly agree.  Sometimes Im glad Im 62 and not 22.  

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I just feel for our NWS members, but I’ve gathered we don’t see eye to eye on that.  They try to prepare the public in an unfolding national emergency and they have to deal with the clown.

The statement was likely issued by Comms Director Julie Roberts who worked on his campaign. It is gaslighting 101

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I see NHC just upgraded back to a cat 2. This storm is toying with my emotions. Anyway conditions here are blustery with occasional strong gusts thrown in. I’d say sustained in the 25-30mph gusts in the 50’s. Worst is yet to come. Rain is torrential now. Falling in white sheets. I’m inland so I suspect conditions on the coast are much worse. So far one power bump but still holding in my area. Lots of others have lost theirs. 120k and climbing. Will post back when things change.

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7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I see NHC just upgraded back to a cat 2. This storm is toying with my emotions. Anyway conditions here are blustery with occasional strong gusts thrown in. I’d say sustained in the 25-30mph gusts in the 50’s. Worst is yet to come. Rain is torrential now. Falling in white sheets. I’m inland so I suspect conditions on the coast are much worse. So far one power bump but still holding in my area. Lots of others have lost theirs. 120k and climbing. Will post back when things change.

At least that area of winds that they reference is well offshore mainly s of the center.

This the ASCAT image the prompted the upgrade. And like the NHC said, it appears that the area of high winds is associated with transition. It has the look of sting jet feature of satellite with an area of subsidence induce cloudless skies. 

 

WMBds85.png

Sting.PNG

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

At least that area of winds that they reference is well offshore mainly s of the center.

This the ASCAT image the prompted the upgrade. And like the NHC said, it appears that the area of high winds is associated with transition. It has the look of sting jet feature of satellite with an area of subsidence induce cloudless skies. 

 

WMBds85.png

Sting.PNG

We had a sting jet with Michael in NC last year. 30 minutes of 60+

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We had a sting jet with Michael in NC last year. 30 minutes of 60+

Cool. We had obs with Hurricane Chris on one of the rigs offshore NS that support hurricane force winds after the NHC had downgraded. I sent them an email about it, but they never responded nor added it to the tropical cyclone report. I assume it was part of ET transition through since it seemed to come on the backside as it pulled away from them. 

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

At least that area of winds that they reference is well offshore mainly s of the center.

This the ASCAT image the prompted the upgrade. And like the NHC said, it appears that the area of high winds is associated with transition. It has the look of sting jet feature of satellite with an area of subsidence induce cloudless skies. 

Definitely has that look. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is the area of subsidence the primary way to identify a developing sting jet? 

I had no clue. I’ll start watching for that more with tropical now. 

Yeah it happens during the ET transition most often. They have occurred with UK gales as well.

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is the area of subsidence the primary way to identify a developing sting jet? 

I had no clue. I’ll start watching for that more with tropical now. 

Yes, and often you will see Cu develop on the nose of the jet as the increased convergence near the surface forces upward motion.

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54 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Yeah Dorian drinking some of that extra tropical booster juice. I notice that strange absence of clouds and thought maybe sting. Pretty cool. Maybe I can catch some of that later.

Good luck to you.  My cousins use to own the Waverly Inn downtown Halifax.  They past away but use to enjoy visiting.  Taking the ferry to Yarmouth and driving back to NH the long way.  The surf just must be crazy against the rocky shore.  Hope you get through it okay.  

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This thing reminds me of a bigger version of the 2005 Dec bomb that folded the tropopause and blasted SE zones with 90 mph wind gusts... 

Man...that storm was so unique.  15" of snow fell in 4 hours with almost no wind in interior Metrowest... meanwhile, lightning/thunder sheet rains flipped to snow during a macroburst ( so to speak ) that p-waved under the vort max and basically tarred and feathered everything in white flashing -

whole thing was over in 5 hours and rendered to a peaceful undercut red sky sunset ...

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

95mph at a Davis station...actually lots of 80mph+ at home sites out there.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F4358&time=GMT

What’s the difference again between the speed and gust on Davis stations?  Is speed a 1-min average or 5-min average?  

Sustained 47mph, gusting 95mph seems like quite the spread.  It’s huge damaging wind anyway, just curious what exactly are the specs for each ob?

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What’s the difference again between the speed and gust on Davis stations?  Is speed a 1-min average or 5-min average?  

Sustained 47mph, gusting 95mph seems like quite the spread.  It’s huge damaging wind anyway, just curious what exactly are the specs for each ob?

Not sure what software he’s using to upload to CWOP. 

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