STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Concerned about Miami ... Here's the deal - Dorian is likely to exceed expectations for intensity guidance. I've just seen this kind of beat before...where the models don't even initialize a system beyond depression, when it reality it's nearing hurrican strength ...yet they still collectively suggest near rapid intensification is plausible. It's moving up into a region that is going to be nothing but improving for TC structure/genesis. It seems the models are tapping into the former circumstance proficiently enough, but are not accessing the inertia Dorian already has established. That's is troublesome... But mostly, it is the excessive thermal cline integration of ocean heat content it is moving toward, combine with superior shear - lack there off - that should have folks' attention. The reason this sticks Miami out like a sore thumb - despite the present concensus N of that latitude, is because strong/strengthening hurricanes gaining size, can synergistically enhance resistance to polarward motion because they "create their own environment." Basically what is taking place when that happens is ... the outflow ring of the cyclone begins to elevate surface pressure...as well as breaks down steering fields on the polarward size of the cyclone, and the tracks can sometimes bend back west when that happens. It may not be statistically entirely obvious that is what is happening, either, because of the surrounding synoptics are strong enough those forcing will damp the effect out - it's more like an effectiveness when other factors are relatively negligible, the cane will moot its self/tend to do so.. I see Dorian moving into an environment of superior development, that is breaking down synoptically ...which might render it to a west bump out there in time. Something to think about. I lived in S Fl for a long while they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0 So much money along the water. Super wealth Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Wild guess here but residents of Palm Beach County, if directly impacted, would probably receive federal assistance "the likes of which has never been seen before". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Storms firing in the NW quad around an apparent eye that has been forming over the past few hours, Better looking circulation and out flow developing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I lived in S Fl for a long while they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0 So much money along the water. Super wealth Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew. It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there. Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm. Disaster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said: Wild guess here but residents of Palm Beach County, if directly impacted, would probably receive federal assistance "the likes of which has never been seen before". Not if we nuke Dory first! Send in the B2s! Defend Mar-a-Lago to the last man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Such a strong forecast turn at a longitude as Far East as forecast leaves a lot of room for error imo . Maybe models will be consistent next 48 on Strenth of ridge but also where this does its turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Such a strong forecast turn at a longitude as Far East as forecast leaves a lot of room for error imo . Maybe models will be consistent next 48 on Strenth of ridge but also where this does its turn Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Modfan said: Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! Get after it...time to get excited for awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Modfan said: Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! So Palm City - Port St.Lucie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So Palm City - Port St.Lucie Yes. Hoping it goes further north towards Melbourne/Cocoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 Very complex forecast, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I lived in S Fl for a long while they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0 So much money along the water. Super wealth Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall Expansion in size is a slam dunk... In fact, I was just noticing the extraordinarily massive spacial layout in west Atlantic, N and NE of Dorian, that as modeled is setting up a truly massive low level easterly anomaly. Given what is happening along with deep layer ridge pulsation during Dorian quasi hook back west ( SW of NS ) that combination of those two factors really just creates a particularly massive region conducive to cyclogenesis spread out over the entire region off the eastern Seaboard... Sandy did something similar but this is not to be consider an analog. Expanding in size and intensify. I could see this having a tendency to generate an outer eye-wall given to this totality of events, but that's just because if the circulation grows immense that tends to happen. EWR's are not well understood... The idea of involving more of S. Florida in surge is predicated on the assumption that Dorian does indeed "synergistically" feedback with strong systems in light steering environment. Since Dorian appears slated to both destinies... I just thought it prudent to mention - but it's not actually modeled to do so. As is, a trajectory as planned put S. Florida/Miami most likely in a N freshening breeze that starts to go storm force in a NW or off-shore component, which of course is a different impact scenario altogether. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew. It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there. Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm. Disaster.....I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 It’s happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.Sent from my SM-G965U using TapatalkYessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Got until tomorrow afternoon to make up my mind if I'm going or not.. just looked up flights on Priceline and BDL to WPB is only $197 bucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Got until tomorrow afternoon to make up my mind if I'm going or not.. just looked up flights on Priceline and BDL to WPB is only $197 bucks.. You will be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: You will be missed. My girlfriends dad lives in port saint lucie.. his house was built to withstand a cat 4.. if it was a 5 might be a problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 37 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept. I was south of the curfew/limited access area. Had to go through military checkpoints to get home I lived at the Crossing which is at 112st..lots of destruction being in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west occurs alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong ) inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west occurs alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong ) inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in Need to know how strong that High is near Bermuda and positioning as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 The old GFS was almost fun for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Euro pulling a Matthew, but displaced about 100 miles west. Capital T trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I have a hypothetical and I wonder if I can get some opinions. My great uncle lives in Sarasota just off the beach. His house is at best a few feet above sea level. If Dorian ends up plowing straight through central Florida and emerges into the Gulf around the Tampa area, Sarasota would have a strong onshore wind. Does anyone here believe it could be strong enough to pose a coastal flooding threat? I'm inclined to think this is a stretch, but I really don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 New development w Euro Ens was a ridge breaking down faster and several members curving this north East of state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Afternoon models are so crucial for Florida to where the Slow down and north turn occur as usual Bahamas could see brunt and stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 BOston to Orlando Saturday and return flight on Monday $300. Who's in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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