April/May Medium-Long range

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The -AO coming up makes me think if we keep this pattern Jun-Aug

[frd]

I would be surprised by a non-hot summer as depoicted by this.

Many are calling for super hot and triple digits for this coming summer.  

Ah, many were calling for severe cold and snow in the winter too.  I always recall DT stating watch the concensus and go counter. 

Sometimes there is too much concensus. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, frd said:

I would be surprised by a non-hot summer as depoicted by this.

Many are calling for super hot and triple digits for this coming summer.  

Ah, many were calling for severe cold and snow in the winter too.  I always recall DT stating watch the concensus and go counter. 

Sometimes there is too much concensus. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No particular reason, more a feeling then anything else, but I have been favoring a coolish summer myself. Think any heat we do see will be late August into September.

[frd]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

No particular reason, more a feeling then anything else, but I have been favoring a coolish summer myself. Think any heat we do see will be late August into September.

You could be right showme. Maybe we transition to the warmest anomalies of the summer in August and September. This would certainly fit some summers in this decade. Granted, there have been some recent summers in this decade as well where the late Spring and early summer experienced the worst, heat-wise.  After those temp spikes we had warm summers with high dews which made it seem hotter. 

The current Atlantic cold pool would argue for possibly more intrusions of cooler air in the weeks ahead. 

Was talking with bluewave and asked him a question about the warm SW Atlantic SSTs, and the relationship to supporting a warm feedback pattern. 

What bluewave shared with me was very interesting. When you look at recent record warmth the past few years many records are located along the outter ring of the WAR. So basically the SE and Eastern Coastal and interior locations experienced numerous high temp records.

Seems to a degree you could speculate that the SW Atlantic warmth may be extending the Summer heat into the early Fall for the Eastern States close to the coast. Also maybe a relationship to the high night time min temps, with those high dews. Very fascinating indeed.  

The last few years shows another interesting occurrence, HL blocking wants to develop late in the winter and many times in the Spring. The winter itself, lacked real -NAO. What this means I am not sure.      

 

 

[frd]

From Don S.  over in the  NYC forum: 

 

The recent strong shot of cold that has gripped the Middle Atlantic and New England regions is nearing an end. Readings will be notably warmer tomorrow across much of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -9.79 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.455. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period.

On May 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 20.42 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 12-adjusted figure of 1.995.

Looking ahead, historic experience suggests that it remains very likely that May will see one or more days with high temperatures in the 80s as far north as New York City. Further, the EPS signal above to sometimes much above normal readings could be possible during the closing 10 days of May.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May is approximately 51%.

[high risk]

Lots of 90s showing up either in our area or close by over the next 2 weeks.     While there seems to be a signal for northeast troughing as we go through June which may keep us cooler (if correct), the big western trough that will likely sit there for at least the next 10 days is going to pump up a healthy east coast ridge.

[frd]

22 hours ago, high risk said:

Lots of 90s showing up either in our area or close by over the next 2 weeks.     While there seems to be a signal for northeast troughing as we go through June which may keep us cooler (if correct), the big western trough that will likely sit there for at least the next 10 days is going to pump up a healthy east coast ridge.

Certainly going to be hot in the SE and maybe implications for us further down the road, or maybe not. 

Also of note, the drying trend in the SE as well , maybe eventually get feedback and of course warming waters as well in the SW Atlantic 

 

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

I may not know what I talking about, at all, but with respect to HEAT for us - doesn't the excessive moisture of the last year help to put a bit of a cap on that? I thought for crazy heat readings dry is usually a component? Perhaps not.

Also, I am not one who wants HEAT so, maybe grasping at straws. I just want a period of normal temps in the 70s and low 80s before heat arrives.

[nw baltimore wx]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I may not know what I talking about, at all, but with respect to HEAT for us - doesn't the excessive moisture of the last year help to put a bit of a cap on that? I thought for crazy heat readings dry is usually a component? Perhaps not.

Also, I am not one who wants HEAT so, maybe grasping at straws. I just want a period of normal temps in the 70s and low 80s before heat arrives.

In general, I think the answer is yes, the temperature will be capped a bit.  However, the heat index can go through the roof because of the humidity.

[frd]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

I may not know what I talking about, at all, but with respect to HEAT for us - doesn't the excessive moisture of the last year help to put a bit of a cap on that? I thought for crazy heat readings dry is usually a component? Perhaps not.

Also, I am not one who wants HEAT so, maybe grasping at straws. I just want a period of normal temps in the 70s and low 80s before heat arrives.

That is why I believe it may not be record setting heat as showme mentioned, but alas I fear very high dews and above normal overnight low temps.

Last summer was aweful for lawn fungus. Left many bare spots.   

I remember Joel Myers many many years ago stating you need super heated air to move ENE from the SW states to really hit all time highs, over rather dry grounds. 

Right now the mid center of the US is wet and the next 7 days via the WPC  is super wet.  

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

In general, I think the answer is yes, the temperature will be capped a bit.  However, the heat index can go through the roof because of the humidity.

Agreed on high mins and humidity - just trying to avoid actual 99 high temp readings at the same time...

[high risk]

10 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I may not know what I talking about, at all, but with respect to HEAT for us - doesn't the excessive moisture of the last year help to put a bit of a cap on that? I thought for crazy heat readings dry is usually a component? Perhaps not.

Also, I am not one who wants HEAT so, maybe grasping at straws. I just want a period of normal temps in the 70s and low 80s before heat arrives.

    The wet ground will likely prevent us from getting super hot, but this is going to be a warm air mass.   The 850 temps will support low 90s here - maybe we'll chop off a few degrees on Sunday, but it seems like the local airports all have a decent shot at 90.

     The good news in the extended is that while a healthy eastern ridge favors well above average temps here, there will be a couple of northern stream shortwaves this week to knock the ridge down for a day or two, and then the mean ridge axis may set up a little further west and allow the mid-Atlantic and northeast to escape the major heat that affects areas south and west of here.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

The wet ground will likely prevent us from getting super hot, but this is going to be a warm air mass.   The 850 temps will support low 90s here - maybe we'll chop off a few degrees on Sunday, but it seems like the local airports all have a decent shot at 90.

     The good news in the extended is that while a healthy eastern ridge favors well above average temps here, there will be a couple of northern stream shortwaves this week to knock the ridge down for a day or two, and then the mean ridge axis may set up a little further west and allow the mid-Atlantic and northeast to escape the major heat that affects areas south and west of here.

From Maue, his use of words inspires extremes at times , ah the weather 

Death ridge

 

 

[high risk]

Maue is right that the southeast is going to bake in the extended.      You can see on the 500 map, though, that the ridge axis will hopefully be just far enough west to put our area in flow that's more northeast and spare us the worst of the heat.

[frd]

Wonder if the wave 6 pattern forecasted later next week ( high wavenumbers k=6+ ) is a byproduct of the recent huge -AO and -NAO.

Ventrice points out this global pattern has produced extreme weather events before, and mentions the SE heat wave coming up :

 

 

[frd]

Wow, the the continued forecasted extreme heat in Fla. , Ga., NC and SC. 

Euro and the EPS are remarkable in terms of the early season heat potential.  

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-NAO is starting to happen a little bit

https://i.ibb.co/b/f384-1.gif/img]

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nice -AO. +PNA keeps dropping in, but it doesn't look like something that would be good for the Winter, =bad Pacific.

[frd]

Starting to see the change with the QBO. Wonder the implications, if any, for the winter of 19/20?

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Big time -AO coming. +PNA too in the medium range, but I'm not sure any of this matters.

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Big time -AO coming. +PNA too in the medium range, but I'm not sure any of this matters.

Will it keep it cool/wet? That definitely matters when you hate summer heat like I do. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Probably not, Showers are popcorn variety unless something comes down from space lol