AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Nice +EPO/+AO pattern setting up. It could get warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted April 16, 2019 Share Posted April 16, 2019 Interesting read....https://news.psu.edu/story/569242/2019/04/15/research/north-atlantic-warming-hole-impacts-jet-stream#.XLXQo3XN7BY.facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 16, 2019 Author Share Posted April 16, 2019 I predict warmer temperatures, but not too warm, and moderate rain. Bland reality: How about this thought There's no more global system of high-low pressures being part of a whole, they happen in waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Nice pattern for warm. No true -NAO has been a force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 20, 2019 Author Share Posted April 20, 2019 18z GFS ensembles has a -NAO day 10 through the long range. With a warm ridge underneath This cold over New Foundland is new and why it may verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 20, 2019 Author Share Posted April 20, 2019 More on the coming -NAO -NAO's in the Spring are kind of nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 20, 2019 Author Share Posted April 20, 2019 ECMWF has -NAO block Days 9-10. It will be interesting to see what materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 From Don S . ( seems Don thinks May for the NYC area will be on the warmer side, I tend to agree. ) Also, the Western Atlanic is warming up as well, I noticed last week. I am just hoping we don't set records again for super high dews that last from May to October again, like last summer. <<<< This afternoon, the clouds broke and the sun returned. The temperature soared into the middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see even warmer temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -12.84 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.721. The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 97%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area. On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.009(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 19-adjusted figure of 0.878. The April 20 amplitude ended the 37-day stretch during which the amplitude was below 1.000. That was the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015. >>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 22, 2019 Author Share Posted April 22, 2019 570 ridge in Northern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 23, 2019 Author Share Posted April 23, 2019 -AO heat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 We are still headed down, the ultimate effect on the global temps and certain weather indicies to hard to predict. I believe there might be an asscoiation with more volcanic eruptions during the lower solar cycles, or lowest point in the solar min. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 15 hours ago, frd said: We are still headed down, the ultimate effect on the global temps and certain weather indicies to hard to predict. I believe there might be an asscoiation with more volcanic eruptions during the lower solar cycles, or lowest point in the solar min. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html The correlation to increased snowfall in the mid Atlantic seems to be the winter immediately following the minimum. However, it’s such a small sample size the correlation could be due to coincidence with other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 lol welcome back. Nice -NAO -EPO pattern coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: lol welcome back. Nice -NAO -EPO pattern coming up You would think that it's gonna do that "ofc its gonna verify in spring and not winter" again but not this year. So much for those -NAO forecasts and relentless cold that was promised by twitterweatherologists back in the beginning of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The correlation to increased snowfall in the mid Atlantic seems to be the winter immediately following the minimum. However, it’s such a small sample size the correlation could be due to coincidence with other factors. Good point psu, in a grand sense we should know soon enough, but some additional patience will be required, as it looks like we still have a ways to go. This will be a rather low solar min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Looks like May arrives with the WAR starting to gain traction, and also precip on the increase as well. From Mount Holly NWS : With the strengthening ridge retrogressing into the Southeast early next week, the front associated with the Monday night system will not make it far to the south. In fact, it may be within the CWA for much of the rest of the week. This would allow for subsequent systems to move into the area, providing frequent bouts of showers/storms. The first system appears to affect the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the GFS/CMC/ECMWF all hinting at this potential. With a lengthy southerly fetch to the south of the quasi-stationary front, instability should be increasing (both boundary-layer based near/to the south of the boundary and elevated poleward of the boundary). Increased mention of thunder on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. The CMC would suggest that ridging intensifies sufficiently for the warm sector to filter into the entire area on Wednesday, but the GFS/ECMWF are somewhat more skeptical (the GFS more so than the ECMWF). I am hesitant to follow the CMC, given its tendency to be too amplified and too ridgy in the medium range. Maintained mentionable PoPs across the area as a result, though they are subtly higher north of the Interstate 76 corridor. Notably, the models suggest heavy precipitation in New York/New England on Wednesday as a surface low moves through and considerable large-scale lift combines with increased moisture/instability to produce widespread showers/storms. My worry here is that the strong convection will actually prevent the front from surging northward as much as the more aggressive guidance is depicting. To some degree, this will depend on how much convection develops in the central plains and Mississippi Valley earlier in the week, with latent heat release via the convection acting to amplify the subtropical ridge to our south (i.e., downstream of the convection). Should this convection be more pronounced than progged, the farther north solutions are more likely to verify. By Thursday, the ridging begins to deamplify, no doubt aided by convective outflow to the north/west. Yet another perturbation will move through the Northeast, initiating more convection along the waffling boundary. Model consensus shows another such system may affect the region on Friday, with the front making only slow progress southward. As such, PoPs are maintained through the end of the week. This pattern favors heavy rainfall along and north of the quasi- stationary boundary. Though the heaviest rainfall would be to the north and west of the area given current model projections, there is certainly potential for this axis to shift southward with subsequent model runs. Additionally, at least northern portions of the CWA could see multiple inches of rain through the week. With models nudging the warm sector northward as subtropical ridging becomes entrenched to our south, generally adjusted temperatures upward next week. The biggest impacts were on Tuesday and Wednesday, where highs/lows were raised several degrees. However, with the front`s ultimate placement in question, the temperature forecast next week is of lower-than-average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 Certainly a shift North with the heaviest rain this week. What appeared like a heavy rain threat a few days is now hundreds of miles North of here. The Southeast starts to dry out. Pretty dry for the areas near Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 28, 2019 Author Share Posted April 28, 2019 Pretty monster -AO pattern.. we haven't seen anything like this for a while. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty monster -AO pattern.. we haven't seen anything like this for a while. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Quote "When pressure at the Arctic is exceptionally high, the AO is "negative," when pressure is low, it is "positive." Is this correct? For us newbies, please describe typical weather outcome or implication. Thank you so much (I read but often still don't understand).:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 28, 2019 Author Share Posted April 28, 2019 High pressure, yes. It sometimes displaces the Polar Vortex to the midlatitudes. It works better in a more chaotic system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: High pressure, yes. It sometimes displaces the Polar Vortex to the midlatitudes. It works better in a more chaotic system lol There was talk of a final; warming for the past several weeks. Of real interest is the -NAO, the most siginifcant drop in ages. Honestly, not sure the last time it went that low. Not on this chart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 Was thinking no heat , is this real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 Pretty legit -NAO/-AO for the first 10 days of May. Sometimes the May NAO switches from April. Cold in Northern Europe for the first time in a long time in 7-8 days. +PNA has become a common pattern since April 1. I think this is reflective of +ENSO. It may or may not continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 The Western Atlantic certainly seems to have the potential to be above average SST-wise during the summer. Wonder the implications as we near August to October in regards to tropical activity. To me another aspect of this may be a summer pattern of rather warm over night lows and above average precip, high dews, etc. Hard to say whether it is going to be like last summer where we set records for duration of high dew points. I remember waiting for Westerly winds for surfing off the Jersey beachs and all the prevailing winds last summer averagerd moreso SW, S, ENE , etc. few frontal passages. something says we get a few more frontal passages this summer but it still reverts back to a mostly warmer than normal summer. I don't think we go crazy hot and drought-like mostly because of normal rainfall to even above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 3, 2019 Author Share Posted May 3, 2019 -AO pattern taking hold for a while, and developing +PNA which is El Nino strengthening sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 4, 2019 Author Share Posted May 4, 2019 Real nice warming around declining arctic sea ice. (12z wrf). That seems to be the global dominance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Fascinating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 8, 2019 Author Share Posted May 8, 2019 Lol more exotic pattern shaping up the globe is moving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Follow up to yesterday with a focus on the West Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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