CIK62 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is +0.9[50.6]. Should be about +3.4[54.1], by the 20th. None of the next 8 days are BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Sounded like a pretty generic and broad forecast to me. "May should be nice if we don't get any BDCF and cut-off lows" Isn't that how it is every May? It probably will be dry if it doesn't rain . 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, doncat said: It probably will be dry if it doesn't rain . It will probably be dark at night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2019 Author Share Posted April 12, 2019 8 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like the models (NAM/GFS) have been trending a bit wetter for today (Friday) into Saturday. Mt.Holly also was concerned for heavy rain especially Friday night into Saturday morning with thunderstorms also possible. Looks like more heavy rain/storms will be possible later Sunday, Sunday night and into the first half of Monday. 7 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Was just looking at that on the models. We might get some thunderstorms around 11pm tomorrow. Training cells are also possible leading to flash flooding. Yeah, PWATS are forecast to be near record levels for mid-April Friday night. Forecast soundings have training of heavy elevated convection potential. Would be nice to see a rainfall event overperform for a change with how dry it has been recently. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 What dry? We got absolutely drenched up here on Tuesday afternoon. It poured for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2019 Author Share Posted April 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What dry? We got absolutely drenched up here on Tuesday afternoon. It poured for a while. Less than .50 of rain here over the last 2 weeks. It was the driest 3-29 to 4-11 since 2000 for FRG. Only 2.05 for March compared to the 3.82 normal. 1 2019-04-11 0.43 0 2 2015-04-11 0.44 0 3 2011-04-11 0.52 0 4 2018-04-11 0.57 0 5 2013-04-11 0.58 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What dry? We got absolutely drenched up here on Tuesday afternoon. It poured for a while. I'm dry up here, driveway is a dusty mess at the moment, March was a below average rainfall month up here and Tuesday was well below .25" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Temps overperforming. 65 here, forecast was 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Yeah felt pretty warm here in lower Manhattan. Got more breaks of sun than anticipated. Had lunch by South St Seaport, no shade over there , took me by surprise how warm it felt. Wall st Heliport showing 65. Bx thermometer shows 60 though with that ENE wind. 55 at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 68 at central park now. LGA jump to 66..south wind now..front pushing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Current temp 67/DP 56/RH 59% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Hrrr continues to suggest heavy rain and possible thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 a miracle just happened. a warm front pushed through the nyc area in april 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 It seems like there is a stronger push to get the warm fronts north of the NYC metro area this year then there has been the last couple of years at least. They usually get stuck around C/S NJ this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Mt.Holly and Upton ref tonight/tomorrow and Sunday/Monday. Mt.Holly: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 330 PM...A warm front associated with a deep low across the Great Lakes is currently moving north through the area with a trailing cold front well to the west over the Ohio Valley. Some showers associated with weak shortwave energy currently moving across portions of eastern PA and the Delmarva and expect these to affect the I-95 corridor within the next couple hours as they move east. However no thunder with this as the instability remains off to the south and west. Heading into this evening, above mentioned area of showers will continue to affect the area as it moves east across NJ. Forecast models generally have these diminishing with time however guidance has not been handling this too well so far and this warranted raising POPs into early this evening. Following this first round of showers there should be a bit of a lull before heavier showers and storms, now currently over western PA southward into Virginia, move in by the late evening and overnight. We have concerns for heavy rainfall with this second round of showers and embedded storms. PWATs should rise to 1.5 inches in the warm sector as moisture is drawn northward with a few hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE being shown by models. Also, the south/east progression of the front should slow down with the mean flow running nearly parallel to it. So for these reasons not only will heavy rainfall be a concern but also the potential for training of heavier shower/storms in a SW to NE orientation. So this all said, urban and and small stream type flooding looks to still be a threat overnight as localized rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible within just a few hours. Even some potential for localized flash flooding as WPC has added parts of eastern PA into a marginal excessive rainfall threat. Highest threat area looks to be along and N/W of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will remain quite mild overnight and even a bit humid in the warm sector as lows will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Weak front oriented SW to NE will be draped across eastern PA to start the day with ongoing showers ahead of it along and S/E of the I-95 corridor. Some of these may continue to be heavy. The good news is showers and any left over storms will taper off through the morning from west to east with the passage of shortwave energy aloft. Beyond this time weak ridging aloft will temporarily move in for the afternoon with some mid level drying also occuring. For this reason expect threat for showers to continue diminishing in the afternoon with any activity being isolated over the southern Delmarva. Otherwise, some sun develops with most areas once again seeing highs in the 70s as front dissipates over the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight of the long term forecast will be the strong storm system expected to affect the east coast Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold front that will stall across the southern portion of the forecast area is expected to lift back northward as a warm front overnight Saturday as an area of low pressure moves across the Midwest region, and continue to slowly lift across the area during the day Sunday. This may be a slow process with how fast this front lifts across the area, but with increasing moisture and lift associate with several short waves riding over the frontal boundary, there will be a chance of showers Saturday night through Sunday. As mentioned before, the main concern with the forecast is overnight Sunday into Monday morning. As the low pressure moves into the northeastern states overnight Sunday, a secondary warm front may move across the area, before a cold front follows behind it. As the warm front lifts across the area, PW values increase across the area to 1.50-1.75 inches. Enhanced lift associated with additional short waves/vorticity impulses overriding the warm front will likely lead to a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. There is not a significant amount of instability forecast at this time, however, there could be enough to help lead to areas of convection, which may lead to additional enhancement of heavy rainfall. At least poor drainage flooding is possible with any heavy rainfall. If any thunderstorms do develop, there could also produce some strong/gusty winds as well. There is also a non-zero severe weather threat with any stronger/deeper convection that develops late Sunday night and early Monday morning just ahead of the cold front. Lower and upper level kinematics will be supportive of strong storms, if (and that is a big if), enough instability is available ahead of the front. Low level (boundary layer) thermodynamics appear to be the biggest question mark at this point for any severe potential. This will need to be monitored in future forecast updates. Upton: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A warm front lifts north of the Lower Hud Valley and Southern CT this evening. Breezy southerly winds likely in its wake and ahead of approaching frontal system for NYC metro/LI/CT late this afternoon into tonight. Deep closed low approaching Lake Superior this evening will move east northeast through southern Ontario and then into northern Quebec this weekend. Ahead of it, an axis of southern stream shortwave energy will lift through the region tonight, with a weak frontal boundary pushing into the region tonight and then southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. Deep layered lift of a +2-3 std PWAT subtropical moisture plume, with marginal elevated instability, converging ahead of a an approaching surface trough, will bring a band of heavy rain and perhaps a few embedded tstms to the region tonight. Operational and high- res guidance indicating a likely 1/2 to 1 inches of rain for most of the region, with potentially 1 to 1 1/2 inches, most falling in 6 hours. Heaviest period of rainfall appears to translate from west to east between 11pm and 6am. See Hydrology section for associated impacts. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Deep closed low continues to move east northeast through Quebec and into the Canadian maritimes this weekend. At the surface, the frontal boundary pushes se of the region Saturday morning. With upper energy still well off to the NW and deep SW flow aligned with the front, the showers could be stubborn to push east of LI/CT in the morning, and even moreso the mid cloud deck through the afternoon. This make for a challenging temp forecast for Saturday. With afternoon clearing, temps could soar well into the 70s to around 80 degrees across NE NJ, Lower Hud and interior SW CT. Across se portions of the region and south coastal areas, temps will likely remain in the lower 60s with cloud cover and onshore component to flow. A cold front then slips south through the area Saturday Night, with Canadian maritimes airmass working into the region. A strong low-level inversion and saturation under it could result in some stratus formation Sat Night. If stratus doesn`t form radiative cooling could lead to locally dense fog fomation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm front remains to the south of us for probably most of the daytime on Sunday as the parent low remains well off to the west and a LLJ doesn`t really get going here until the evening hours. Have therefore sided closer to the cooler MET MOS guidance on an easterly wind flow. Can`t rule out a shower at any point in the day, but thinking is that better chances would occur in the afternoon with the approach of stronger isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. Low pressure center then heads from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Northeast. This, along with a strengthening LLJ shifting in over here, allows the warm front to move through. Deepening moisture, convergence and lift will lead to a widespread rainfall across the area. Elevated instability and wind shear allow for a chance of strong thunderstorms, and with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches - near the record daily max for this time of year, rainfall will be moderate to potentially locally heavy. Flash flooding potential at this point is somewhat uncertain. Part of this depends on how much rain we`ll get tonight into Saturday. Even without tonight`s rainfall there`s potential for at least widespread minor flooding. Rising dewpoints advecting over the cold area waters could aid in fog development, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. As the storm center moves into New England on Monday, its cold front passes through sometime in the morning to midday hours with rain chances dropping off behind its passage. Instability and shear ahead of the cold front maintain a chance of strong thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture and shortwave lift then remain during the rest of the day to continue the threat of additional showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I have some moderate to heavy rain falling here now. Temp 61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 thunderstorm in bk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Latest discussion from Upton regarding Sunday night into Monday morning: Quote Low pressure center then heads from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Northeast. This, along with a strengthening LLJ shifting in over here, allows the warm front to move through. Deepening moisture, convergence and lift will lead to a widespread rainfall across the area. Elevated instability and wind shear allow for a chance of strong thunderstorms, and with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches - near the record daily max for this time of year, rainfall will be moderate to potentially locally heavy. Flash flooding potential at this point is somewhat uncertain. Part of this depends on how much rain we`ll get tonight into Saturday. Even without tonight`s rainfall there`s potential for at least widespread minor flooding. Rising dewpoints advecting over the cold area waters could aid in fog development, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. And Mount Holly: Quote As mentioned before, the main concern with the forecast is overnight Sunday into Monday morning. As the low pressure moves into the northeastern states overnight Sunday, a secondary warm front may move across the area, before a cold front follows behind it. As the warm front lifts across the area, PW values increase across the area to 1.50-1.75 inches. Enhanced lift associated with additional short waves/vorticity impulses overriding the warm front will likely lead to a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. There is not a significant amount of instability forecast at this time, however, there could be enough to help lead to areas of convection, which may lead to additional enhancement of heavy rainfall. At least poor drainage flooding is possible with any heavy rainfall. If any thunderstorms do develop, there could also produce some strong/gusty winds as well. There is also a non-zero severe weather threat with any stronger/deeper convection that develops late Sunday night and early Monday morning just ahead of the cold front. Lower and upper level kinematics will be supportive of strong storms, if (and that is a big if), enough instability is available ahead of the front. Low level (boundary layer) thermodynamics appear to be the biggest question mark at this point for any severe potential. This will need to be monitored in future forecast updates. The cold front is forecast to make its way into the area around daybreak Monday, then a secondary front/surface trough will likely cross the area during the day Monday. The heavier showers will likely be continuing through the morning hours Monday then move offshore as the initial cold front moves off the coast. As the secondary front/surface trough moves across the area during the day, additional showers will be possible. As the winds turn west to northwesterly, they will become gusty during the afternoon hours, with gusts reaching at least 35 mph, with potentially higher peak gusts. Maximum winds and gusts are currently forecast to occur around dusk on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.2[51.2]. Should be +3.0[53.9] by the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Heaviest rain event in 3 weeks here with .88 at Wantagh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 0.97” for this event so far. We needed the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 About .75 here. Things will really start "Waking up" vegetation wise with the weekend's warmth and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Record warm minimum so far of 61 at Newark for today. So temperatures will be off to the races once we get some breaks of sun. It’s only been one year since we set the previous record of 58 degrees. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Newark record warmest minimum for 4/13 4/13 58 in 2018 58 in 1977 57 in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: About .75 here. Things will really start "Waking up" vegetation wise with the weekend's warmth and rain. Definitely, the undergrowth is getting thicker and greener. Seems a little behind on the leaf out here though, considering it's mid-April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1.04” up here, the biggest precipitation event here since 1/24 when I picked up 1.62” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sun by noon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Record warm minimum so far of 61 at Newark for today. So temperatures will be off to the races once we get some breaks of sun. It’s only been one year since we set the previous record of 58 degrees. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Newark record warmest minimum for 4/13 4/13 58 in 2018 58 in 1977 57 in 2006 I'm already over 60 here in Mahopac. 48 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Sun by noon Sun is popping here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Picked up 0.09" of rain so far today. Storm total 0.56" Current temp 69/DP 63/RH 74% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 This weather is too humid 70 degrees with high humidity not the way I wanted my Saturday to be. It’s like hard to breathe with this air! We all want warm weather but this humidity is really annoying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now