MJO812 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 52 and cloudy here Looks like a wet Friday night and Saturday ahead. Easter looks cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Clearing from south to north into C-NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Clearing from south to north into C-NJ Areas to our SW look to make a run on 80 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: While the forecast soundings aren’t as unstable as we saw Monday morning, the PWATS are forecast near record levels for April. So the area could see a widespread 1-2 inches of heavy with locally higher amounts where the best training sets up. NYC is on track to tie the all-time record of 15 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation. The record streak was established from Dec 74 to Feb 76. 2nd place is 14 consecutive months from Dec 10 to Jan 12. I've posted this stat before but I think it's pretty impressive....My station has had only one below normal precip month during the past 14....Running about normal so far this month at 2.28"....another couple inches would put it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: I've posted this stat before but I think it's pretty impressive....My station has had only one below normal precip month during the past 14....Running about normal so far this month at 2.28"....another couple inches would put it above. Bet on wet to continue much of the remainder of the year. THink we are looking at a summer repeat too. Warm-steamy and rainy, when not raining = hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Bet on wet to continue much of the remainder of the year. THink we are looking at a summer repeat too. Warm-steamy and rainy, when not raining = hot That is the current Euro summer forecast. Could also mean another year with more close in hurricane and tropical storm activity from the GOM to East Coast. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1118514451827843072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Models really backed off rainfall amounts for our area today. Let's see how it plays out tomorrow. The spc has extended the slight and marginal areas further north on their most recent update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Can you guess where the warm front is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Can you guess where the warm front is? so close, yet so far. north by 100 miles would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 55 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Some sunshine breaking through in lower manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Flash Flood Watch in effect here from late Friday night thru Saturday afternoon for 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 3" Current temp 65 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 48 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Flash Flood Watch in effect here from late Friday night thru Saturday afternoon for 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 3" Current temp 65 Love a nice rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 59 with breaks of sunshine. Topped out at 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Up to 80 here 10 miles north in the 60s 20 miles in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Up to 80 here 10 miles north in the 60s 20 miles in the 50s. Temp made it up to 66 here but has dropped back to the current temp of 62 I suspect temps will stay fairly steady here or even rise a bit overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 If it doesn't include svr , keep the rain storms away. As for severe in the NYC metro Sat am...big meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Through 7:45 pm CDT, Baton Rouge had picked up 4.82" rain. That smashed the daily record of 2.40" that was set way back in 1901. The storm responsible for this heavy rain will affect the region later tomorrow into Saturday. That storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain. To date, New York City has received 12.93" precipitation, which is 0.98" below normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -8.15 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.107. The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 90%. There is also an implied 68% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 57% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.753 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.671. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 35 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015. Within the next 3 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days. Finally, according to the GISS dataset, March 2019 was the 3rd warmest March on record (global land and sea temperatures) with an anomaly of +1.11°C. Only 2016 and 2017 were warmer. Meanwhile, on April 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 12,756,658 square kilometers. That broke the daily record low figure of 12,985,833 square kilometers, which was set just last year. However, Arctic temperatures have recently moved closer to normal, so the melt rate could slow in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Temp made it up to 66 here but has dropped back to the current temp of 62 I suspect temps will stay fairly steady here or even rise a bit overnight. Same here 66° high....Models are really all over the place with the placement of any heavy rains for tomorrow night- Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Just now, doncat said: Same here 66° high....Models are really all over the place with the placement of any heavy rains for tomorrow night- Sat. My temp has actually risen a few degrees over the last few hours, current temp 65 Yeah seems the models have a tendency to do that especially when convection is involved. I would expect heavy rain/storms (some strong to severe) anytime from late tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: My temp has actually risen a few degrees over the last few hours, current temp 65 Yeah seems the models have a tendency to do that especially when convection is involved. I would expect heavy rain/storms (some strong to severe) anytime from late tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday morning. Warm front pushed through like it's nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Next 8 days averaging about 62degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[53.9]. Should be +4.5[56.5] by the 27th. 60* at 6am, here. No BN days for the rest of the month is possible. We could back-in to 1st. Place, for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Mostly for straight line wind damage but folks in the Carolinas have to be on alert today. There will definitely be a few tornado chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Breaks of sun thru the clouds here. Current temp 67/DP 61/RH 74% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2019 Author Share Posted April 19, 2019 No let up in sight for this very strong WAR pattern. Warmer than normal temperatures with occasional shots of tropical moisture continues. Notice how the 500 mb pattern is perfectly mirroring the SST departures.This is how we end up with the same pattern for months and months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 ^^ Been a back and forth pattern with temps...Nov below, Dec above, Jan normal, Feb above, Mar below, April above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2019 Author Share Posted April 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, doncat said: ^^ Been a back and forth pattern with temps...Nov below, Dec above, Jan normal, Feb above, Mar below, April above. November and March were the few times over the last year that we saw the WAR relax. It pretty much ran the table for the DJF resulting in near record low snowfall over that period. Notice how the influence of the Greenland blocking often gets muted under this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 NO MORE WAR NO MORE WAR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 I should change my username to WARmonger. 61 and alternating between cloudy and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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