bkviking Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 3 hours ago, dWave said: Wind shifted to S/SE and temp jumped to 51 Heavy rain with Thunder in Port Jefferson. Would never have thought with grotesque cold marine layer here all day. These showers are therefore surprising as they held up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Infrequent thunder/lightning. I’m just south of the heavy rains, only 0.03”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Pretty good hail here oceanside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 2 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Yep. I've been shooting timelapses from high point since 230pm..all those cells slid just around me except this last one that's raining on me right now. I think I got some lightning I have to check when I get some but the timelapse will certainly be cool I actually drove down from the Binghamton area earlier today and traveled under the incipient stages of this line. I have no doubt you obtained some great shots from your spot based upon what I saw coming down I380 from the Scranton area. These cells were low topped but spectacular to watch as they evolved. Tonight I am seeing something I have not seen in the 14 years I have been here (I moved from LI). The Back door / seebreeze front has just moved a couple of miles to my west. There is about a 15 degree temperature difference across Bethlehem tonight with this front. That pales in comparison to the 25 degree difference across NYC last night with the same front. It is very rare that a front like this gets this far west from NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Yesterday, Caribou picked up 4.2" snow. That brought Caribou's seasonal snowfall to 162.7", making winter 2018-19 Caribou's 3rd snowiest winter on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was +17.01 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.159. As previously noted, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.5° for that period this year. Beyond April 10, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 63%. On April 8, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.063 (RMM). The amplitude was below the April 7-adjusted figure of 0.122. That was the lowest amplitude since the MJO had an amplitude of 0.045 on March 31, 2017. For now, the MJO is essentially irrelevant. However, within 10-14 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above in Phase 2. There remains considerable uncertainty whether the MJO would then progress to Phase 3 or continue to regress toward Phase 1. During the April 20-30 period, Phase 1 was approximately 1.2° warmer than Phase 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Double rainbow as the storms moved east today from High Point State Park. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: I actually drove down from the Binghamton area earlier today and traveled under the incipient stages of this line. I have no doubt you obtained some great shots from your spot based upon what I saw coming down I380 from the Scranton area. These cells were low topped but spectacular to watch as they evolved. Tonight I am seeing something I have not seen in the 14 years I have been here (I moved from LI). The Back door / seebreeze front has just moved a couple of miles to my west. There is about a 15 degree temperature difference across Bethlehem tonight with this front. That pales in comparison to the 25 degree difference across NYC last night with the same front. It is very rare that a front like this gets this far west from NYC. That is very interesting. I really thought one or two of the storms was going to go severe but they didn't make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 57degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.4[50.8]. Looks like it will be about +3.5[53.5] by the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 That was some seriously heavy rain yesterday and the lightning was pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2019 Author Share Posted April 10, 2019 Remarkable how persistent this cutter and hugger storm track has been since last fall. Both the Euro and GFS have 3 Great Lakes cutters over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Remarkable how persistent this cutter and hugger storm track has been since last fall. Both the Euro and GFS have 3 Great Lakes cutters over the next 10 days. The pattern eventually has to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: The pattern eventually has to change hope it changed start of october...when summer is over.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: The pattern eventually has to change We better hope this isn’t stuck as a result of the change in AMO. That’s my worst nightmare, a reversion to the 1980s coast rain inland snow pattern due to the lack of blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We better hope this isn’t stuck as a result of the change in AMO. That’s my worst nightmare, a reversion to the 1980s coast rain inland snow pattern due to the lack of blocking Maybe this is the normal pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Maybe this is the normal pattern? I do not think there is a “normal pattern” anymore. But if you look back historically there have been snowy and less snowy decades based on blocking. Wether it’s directly amp related needs more research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I do not think there is a “normal pattern” anymore. But if you look back historically there have been snowy and less snowy decades based on blocking. Wether it’s directly amp related needs more research That’s fair. Whatever it is, this winter was tame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I do not think there is a “normal pattern” anymore. But if you look back historically there have been snowy and less snowy decades based on blocking. Wether it’s directly amp related needs more research I definitely think the AMO has a part in it--since 2013 or so, cold anomolies have been showing up south of Greenland which inhibits blocking to a degree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: The pattern eventually has to change Could be a nice severe weather pattern though for the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Rainy pattern ahead on every model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rainy pattern ahead on every model Excellent, we really haven’t had much rain lately. Only got a brief shower here on the uws yesterday. Got much more rain at home on the island which is pretty rare this time of year based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rainy pattern ahead on every model same deal 10 days ago-we've all had about .50 or so of rain in that period.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Rainy pattern ahead on every modelApril showers bring May flowers Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 there was a massive hemispheric circulation change in 2013 which bluewave has posted about in detail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 41 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there was a massive hemispheric circulation change in 2013 which bluewave has posted about in detail The change did not get the superstar treatment at the time. Was this because it takes time to recognize that a big shift has occurred or because we did not appreciate the phenomenon? Is hemispheric circulation modeled effectively or is it a space where skill levels are still evolving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Things have really dried out over the last Month. Our last widespread heavy rain over 1.00” was back on March 21st. Maybe one of the cutters starting with next Monday will give some part of the area a good soaking. Early signs of a brutally hot & humid summer? Chances are trough stays in west-midwest while coasts heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Early signs of a brutally hot & humid summer? Chances are trough stays in west-midwest while coasts heat up. What do you think the odds of a hot and humid summer are? Out on LI last summer was warm but the humidity was not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 On 4/9/2019 at 9:51 AM, Snow88 said: We all complain when its hot.Try wearing the vest and the long pants all summer. Walk in our shoes before making a smartass post. Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: What do you think the odds of a hot and humid summer are? Out on LI last summer was warm but the humidity was not too bad What? Last summer was the most humid on record, going by dewpoints... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, psv88 said: What? Last summer was the most humid on record, going by dewpoints... Last summer was not too bad, humidity wise, as I recall. I certainly remember summers that were much more uncomfortable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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