Juliancolton Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Of course the NAO and AO wants to go negative as we head into April. Never fails lol #ThoughtsAndPrayers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Of course the NAO and AO wants to go negative as we head into April. Never fails lol What would that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: What would that mean? Probably a cooler than normal mid April. We could see some late season nor'easters if the -NAO ends up being really strong. NAO effects will get more and more diluted as season progresses though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Stratosphere seems to be warming for the last two or three weeks. What does that do when we are outside the 'cold season'? Anyone know? These non-winter warmings do not seem to figure in forecasting, since I don't hear it mentioned out of season. I am guessing the reason is a smaller N---S T gradient in summer to start with at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Of course the NAO and AO wants to go negative as we head into April. Never fails lol models have been advertising that since Nov. Has yet to really happen... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Through April 1 at 5 pm, snowfall totals for select cities were: Binghamton: 81.0" (33rd snowiest winter); Buffalo: 118.7" (12th snowiest winter); Burlington: 102.8" (10th snowiest winter); and, Caribou: 154.1" (4th snowiest winter). Those cities could see one or two measurable snow events this week. There is potential that measurable snow could even be record in an area running from extreme northwestern New Jersey to Boston this week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -4.40 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.597. The AO has now been positive for 53 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the November 26, 2006 through January 20, 2007 period when the AO was positive for 56 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in coming days. Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal even as the period starts on a colder than normal note. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of an above normal anomaly in New York City after the first 10 days of April is 55% and approximately 60% for the month as a whole. On March 31, the MJO returned to Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.418 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 30-adjusted figure of 0.567. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 The continued bumps west for the mid week coastal storm are certainly intriguing especially for portions of New England. Something to continue to keep an eye on in the NYC metro area as well (not for snow) but for more substantial rain/wind impacts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: The continued bumps west for the mid week coastal storm are certainly intriguing especially for portions of New England. Something to continue to keep an eye on in the NYC metro area as well (not for snow) but for more substantial rain/wind impacts IMO. 0z NAM is well east-most are dry verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 0z NAM is well east-most are dry verbatim have you considered maybe the name could be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I do not remember trees being leafed out for the April fools day bomb. We only had a couple inches of the pastiest, paste here on the south shore but that occurred with extremely heavy rates and temps in the mid 30s. Parts of NE got absolutely buried! 13 hours ago, Brian5671 said: too early for leaves-I wonder if he was referencing the Oct 2012 storm It was a pretty warm March and things were popping a few weeks early. I got 17" in just a few hours after it was in the 50's during the day while I played golf. It started as rain, the wind shifted and it exploded. Insane snowfall rates for a few hours with crazy wind and trees snapping all over, power was out for 3 or 4 days, it was a mess. By late in the afternoon after the storm it was just a chilly spring day and at least half the snow was gone already. I remember pretty much every bit of it because it was so anomalous and after a near complete dud of a winter that almost destroyed my 1st year ski/snowboard shop that I had to move it out of the space we had rented on 3/30 it had an even more intense effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Currently 29° here...Lil chilly for 4/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 53degs., or about 4degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 24.0 damn cold for 4/2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 25F Time for Tulips now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: It was a pretty warm March and things were popping a few weeks early. I got 17" in just a few hours after it was in the 50's during the day while I played golf. It started as rain, the wind shifted and it exploded. Insane snowfall rates for a few hours with crazy wind and trees snapping all over, power was out for 3 or 4 days, it was a mess. By late in the afternoon after the storm it was just a chilly spring day and at least half the snow was gone already. I remember pretty much every bit of it because it was so anomalous and after a near complete dud of a winter that almost destroyed my 1st year ski/snowboard shop that I had to move it out of the space we had rented on 3/30 it had an even more intense effect. yeah it was a snowless winter up until that point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 AO and NAO falling to negative Where was this during the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 new Nam is bone dry for most here-won't even see a rain shower unless you're well east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: AO and NAO falling to negative Where was this during the winter? I doubt it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: new Nam is bone dry for most here-won't even see a rain shower unless you're well east Forecast soundings showing brush fire danger Wednesday. Very strong downslope flow really dries out and warms. Could see 40 mph or higher gusts with deep mixing to near 800 mb. High temperatures could easily overperform. It will be one of our warmer spring days if you don’t mind the gusty winds. KEWR NAM MOS GUIDANCE 4/02/2019 1200 UTC DT /APR 2/APR 3 /APR 4 /APR 5 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 38 67 39 60 38 TMP 46 46 42 42 41 40 42 57 64 64 57 48 43 40 45 51 56 57 51 41 41 DPT 22 25 29 33 32 32 33 31 26 22 18 16 18 20 23 23 22 19 18 23 26 CLD SC BK OV OV OV BK FW FW FW SC FW CL FW FW BK BK BK SC BK BK OV WDR 14 11 08 06 01 33 29 26 26 28 30 31 29 23 25 28 28 29 31 03 05 WSP 10 08 06 07 08 09 08 11 20 23 19 17 06 05 06 08 14 13 11 08 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I doubt it will verify. It always verifies in the spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: It always verifies in the spring Well, not this Spring. It's a global pattern. We haven't had -NAO in April since 2010 anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: new Nam is bone dry for most here-won't even see a rain shower unless you're well east Damn. Soil moisture is low for this time of year in sun exposed areas. (Hence the huge forest fire in the New Jersey pine lands this week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 We burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Welcome to brush fire season, the NYS burn ban went into effect a couple of weeks, as is tradition. https://www.dec.ny.gov/chemical/58519.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 COC Taking shape http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_SE/loop60.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Fire weather watch for all of NJ tomorrow. Gusts to 45 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Fire weather watch for all of NJ tomorrow. Gusts to 45 possible new NAM is dry and it's been fairly dry the last few weeks...anything that gets going will spread fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 505 PM EST TUE APR 02 2019 ...RECORD SNOWFALL IN CHARLOTTE NC... A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED ON APRIL 2 IN CHARLOTTE. CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IN CHARLOTTE DATING BACK TO 1879. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1113149874441211905 For only the 2nd time in 100 years we saw measurable snow in April in #Charlotte. It was also the 6th latest date on record. Here's the updated totals map with a swath of 1-2" from Chester, York, Lancaster... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 505 PM EST TUE APR 02 2019 ...RECORD SNOWFALL IN CHARLOTTE NC... A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED ON APRIL 2 IN CHARLOTTE. CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IN CHARLOTTE DATING BACK TO 1879. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1113149874441211905 For only the 2nd time in 100 years we saw measurable snow in April in #Charlotte. It was also the 6th latest date on record. Here's the updated totals map with a swath of 1-2" from Chester, York, Lancaster... Kind of a good pattern for it, actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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