April 2019 Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

I'll go out on a limb and say those high Kuchera ratios are not going to pan out with temps in the 30s in mid April.

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'll go out on a limb and say those high Kuchera ratios are not going to pan out with temps in the 30s in mid April.

On the 18z NAM, the Kuchera ratio maps show reasonable ratios for the Sunday event, around 8:1. 

Still may not be low enough...but probably in the ballpark.

[Stebo]

Yeah Wisconsin can have this, I'll take a hard pass.

[IWXwx]

Still holding at 59°, while Jackstraw, Indystorm and company 50 miles to my south are roasting at 80°

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

On the 18z NAM, the Kuchera ratio maps show reasonable ratios for the Sunday event, around 8:1. 

Still may not be low enough...but probably in the ballpark.

Kuchera should do better than 10:1 in this case, but could still be inflated as you said. 

We are used to seeing Kuchera maps showing greater than 10:1.  That is not always the case though.

[beavis1729]

I guess 5's are wild...here are current temps across NE IL:

UGN 45

ORD 55

LOT 65

IKK 75

[Indystorm]

20 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I guess 5's are wild...here are current temps across NE IL:

UGN 45

ORD 55

LOT 65

IKK 75

Even 50 dew point now at Indpls.  Cheers!  But seriously, unless I missed something pressure wise I do not believe this storm has bombed like it was expected to do.  Current pressure is 990 mb. I saw 988 earlier but I don't remember the lowest pressure it achieved.

[cyclone77]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Very nasty out there at 38 degrees, and east winds gusting over 40mph.  Should make it to near 70 later on though, with dews well into the 50s.

 Or not lol 

[Hoosier]

Hey beavis, here are some snow stats for ya with the potential weekend system in mind.

For Chicago:

# of 1" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  12 ; last occurrence:  4/14/2014

# of 2" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  6 ; last occurrence:  4/14/1980

# of 3" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  2 ; last occurrence:  4/23/1967

Will check out some other cities in coming days.

 

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

 Or not lol 

NegativeEPO weeps

[SchaumburgStormer]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NegativeEPO weeps

Warm front hung up at I-80? I’m shocked.... 

[geddyweather]

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NegativeEPO weeps

Sitting here in CG at 54 degrees. Lima, just 13 miles to my south (KAOH), is at 77 in that surface map. I can literally see the handful of cumulus associated with the warm front from my upstairs window inching closer. Fun day for fans of temp gradients.

[geddyweather]

Also, here's this satellite image....bah gawd. What month is it again?

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front hung up at I-80? I’m shocked.... 

Most of the models were too aggressive with the northward push.  I think it would've been a different outcome if we had a deepening low.  An occluding low in this position... not gonna work.  

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, here are some snow stats for ya with the potential weekend system in mind.

For Chicago:

# of 1" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  12 ; last occurrence:  4/14/2014

# of 2" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  6 ; last occurrence:  4/14/1980

# of 3" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  2 ; last occurrence:  4/23/1967

Will check out some other cities in coming days.

 

Thank you sir.

Most surprising to me is 6 occurrences of 2”+ this late in the season. I didn’t think it would be that many. Of course Chicago has a long period of record. 

[Baum]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, here are some snow stats for ya with the potential weekend system in mind.

For Chicago:

# of 1" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  12 ; last occurrence:  4/14/2014

# of 2" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  6 ; last occurrence:  4/14/1980

# of 3" calendar day snows on/after April 14:  2 ; last occurrence:  4/23/1967

Will check out some other cities in coming days.

 

I believe the latest big snowfall for Chicago is April 14, 1961...though as you've listed before it did not fall in one calendar day. Thus, 58 yrs to the date...if it were to occurr

[Hoosier]

Thread for weekend storm:

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Most of the models were too aggressive with the northward push.  I think it would've been a different outcome if we had a deepening low.  An occluding low in this position... not gonna work.  

Yeah, much like models under-doing WAA during winter storms, they always seem real eager to blast that WF north in the spring. Then we end up with 25 degree temp gradients from I-90 to I-80

[Jonger]

Is there a way to lookup how much wind my area has averaged over a set time period and how that compares to normal.

Weather is really important to my company and it seems like the last month has been an absolute wind-fest compared to normal. We can't go more than 2 days without extreme wind recently.

 

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, Jonger said:

Is there a way to lookup how much wind my area has averaged over a set time period and how that compares to normal.

Weather is really important to my company and it seems like the last month has been an absolute wind-fest compared to normal. We can't go more than 2 days without extreme wind recently.

 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=grr

F6->Lansing->archived data->March.

There is an average for the days there. 9.4kts peak hourly of 36kts on the 10th peak gust of 48mph also on the 10th.

[weatherbo]

Getting missed by the storm to the south and east yesterday did not hurt my feelings one bit, all it provided here was a cold day in the mid-30's with a blustery northeast wind off the lake- too cold to feel much like "spring".  Temps this week should be in the mid-40's to near 50 with nighttime temps falling to near freezing, along with a nice soaking rainstorm mid-week, should continue to melt off the seasonal snowpack. Lakes still frozen over but that's likely to change this week in a few spots.  This weekend ice fishing on the Dead River Basin a few miles south of here, ice was still 13-15" thick.  Creeks and waterfalls all running high.

The snow this time of the year always starts to feel unnatural to me.  It's just way too bright.  Bug and skeeter season just around the corner.

[beavis1729]

Nice pics Bo, as always. Great to hear the lakes near you are still frozen...amazing.

What do you think of winter 2018-19? For awhile, it looked like you were going to have an epic season up there, but it seems like the snowfall completely shutoff at some point. I guess it’s not too unusual given the frozen Lake Superior...but as an example, MQT has only had 17” since March 1, whereas 44” is normal. 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Nice pics Bo, as always. Great to hear the lakes near you are still frozen...amazing.

What do you think of winter 2018-19? For awhile, it looked like you were going to have an epic season up there, but it seems like the snowfall completely shutoff at some point. I guess it’s not too unusual given the frozen Lake Superior...but as an example, MQT has only had 17” since March 1, whereas 44” is normal. 

Thx!

I'd rate it a B+.  Will end up slightly above average in snow (around 275"), with the majority this year from very wet systems, much denser than the average 18:1 ratio seen here in winter.  That allowed for the huge 5-6' snow depths seen in spots of the Huron's and the Keweenaw.  That along with seeing the most ferocious blizzard I have ever witnessed in February and also receiving over 100" the same month, helped offset the boring month of March where only 8" fell.  Also there was basically no thaw all winter.  Can't ask for much more than that.

 

[NegativeEPO]

wow, finally a decent warm-up!

 

Oh wait, it's Spring 2019... back into the trash cold a couple days later that will probably lock in for the rest of the month. Barely into the 40s lakeside... absolutely brutal stuff.

 

 

 

GFS isn't any better. In fact, it's showing possible record cold towards the end of the month into the beginning of May. I've accepted that this is the new normal now though. As the arctic continues to warm at an alarming rate, the midwest/east will be its dumping ground for cold. Warming waters combined with melting sea ice contributes to the non-stop ridge that has been present in Alaska and the Arctic, and that ridge forces the cold south. The cold has to go somewhere after all, and it takes direct aim at us... ALWAYS. As the rest of the planet continues to warm, average temperatures in the eastern CONUS will continue to decline, to the point where April snows (possibly even May snows) might become a common occurrence. Again, this is all related to climate change and a warming arctic/melting ice caps. Its effects are already irreversible, so we may as well accept it at this point. It will only get worse as time goes on too, perhaps even catastrophic at some point.

[NTXYankee]

14 minutes ago, NegativeEPO said:

wow, finally a decent warm-up!

 

Oh wait, it's Spring 2019... back into the trash cold a couple days later that will probably lock in for the rest of the month. Barely into the 40s lakeside... absolutely brutal stuff.

 

 

 

GFS isn't any better. In fact, it's showing possible record cold towards the end of the month into the beginning of May. I've accepted that this is the new normal now though. As the arctic continues to warm at an alarming rate, the midwest/east will be its dumping ground for cold. Warming waters combined with melting sea ice contributes to the non-stop ridge that has been present in Alaska and the Arctic, and that ridge forces the cold south. The cold has to go somewhere after all, and it takes direct aim at us... ALWAYS. As the rest of the planet continues to warm, average temperatures in the eastern CONUS will continue to decline, to the point where April snows (possibly even May snows) might become a common occurrence. Again, this is all related to climate change and a warming arctic/melting ice caps. Its effects are already irreversible, so we may as well accept it at this point. It will only get worse as time goes on too, perhaps even catastrophic at some point.

I think even AOC would find you mildly entertaining.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Thx!

I'd rate it a B+.  Will end up slightly above average in snow (around 275"), with the majority this year from very wet systems, much denser than the average 18:1 ratio seen here in winter.  That allowed for the huge 5-6' snow depths seen in spots of the Huron's and the Keweenaw.  That along with seeing the most ferocious blizzard I have ever witnessed in February and also receiving over 100" the same month, helped offset the boring month of March where only 8" fell.  Also there was basically no thaw all winter.  Can't ask for much more than that.

 

Despite the horrific December, I would say this was an epic snow depth Winter in parts of the upper peninsula. In 12 years of traveling North during the dead of Winter, I have never seen snow anything close to that deep from Mackinac to Newberry, and even the locals in Newberry said they cannot recall a Winter like that. I mean everything is relative to climo, but all those years that we were having fantastic winters downstate, much of northern Michigan was having very subpar winters by their standards. Not this year. I can name you 3 winters since 2008 that I went up North in February and left deeper snow in Detroit than what was on the ground in mackinaw (of course I was not staying in mackinaw, just the principle lol). This year Mackinac looked like they were near Lake Superior lol.

[Cary67]

4 hours ago, NegativeEPO said:

wow, finally a decent warm-up!

 

Oh wait, it's Spring 2019... back into the trash cold a couple days later that will probably lock in for the rest of the month. Barely into the 40s lakeside... absolutely brutal stuff.

 

 

 

GFS isn't any better. In fact, it's showing possible record cold towards the end of the month into the beginning of May. I've accepted that this is the new normal now though. As the arctic continues to warm at an alarming rate, the midwest/east will be its dumping ground for cold. Warming waters combined with melting sea ice contributes to the non-stop ridge that has been present in Alaska and the Arctic, and that ridge forces the cold south. The cold has to go somewhere after all, and it takes direct aim at us... ALWAYS. As the rest of the planet continues to warm, average temperatures in the eastern CONUS will continue to decline, to the point where April snows (possibly even May snows) might become a common occurrence. Again, this is all related to climate change and a warming arctic/melting ice caps. Its effects are already irreversible, so we may as well accept it at this point. It will only get worse as time goes on too, perhaps even catastrophic at some point.

This post is great. It belongs on an SNL Debbie Downer skit.

[cyclone77]

Mid 70s look likely tomorrow.  This is like high plains stuff, going from snow to temps like that in just two days.  

[weatherbo]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Despite the horrific December, I would say this was an epic snow depth Winter in parts of the upper peninsula. In 12 years of traveling North during the dead of Winter, I have never seen snow anything close to that deep from Mackinac to Newberry, and even the locals in Newberry said they cannot recall a Winter like that. I mean everything is relative to climo, but all those years that we were having fantastic winters downstate, much of northern Michigan was having very subpar winters by their standards. Not this year. I can name you 3 winters since 2008 that I went up North in February and left deeper snow in Detroit than what was on the ground in mackinaw (of course I was not staying in mackinaw, just the principle lol). This year Mackinac looked like they were near Lake Superior lol.

The northern lakes area has been fairly system deficient for a while (prior to this winter).  Nice ones from time to time, like this time last April where 2.5' fell here, but as a whole if you weren't in a lake effect sweet spot, winter's haven't been that great... extended thaws the past couple winter's too.  This winter, like you said, most of the UP had lake belt depths, and lake belt depths started looking like mountain depths.

Hard to forgive the 8" in March, tho.  I mean, I could change my grade to an A- maybe, but it's the equivalent of acing the whole school year, then skipping the exam.

 

 

[Hoosier]

74 with plenty of sun.  Amazing turn from 2 days ago.