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April 2019 Discussion


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

74 with plenty of sun.  Amazing turn from 2 days ago.

Yeah, it's crazy. 

I don't ever remember seeing fresh/white snow with temps in the 70s, until today.  There are still a few very small fresh piles of snow from 2 days ago (we got about 5" here). Sometimes you'll see piles of dirty/black snow left over from the winter when you get a really warm day in mid-late March...but it's extremely rare for us to see this drastic of a warm up after a significant snowfall. :snowman:

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8 hours ago, weatherbo said:

The northern lakes area has been fairly system deficient for a while (prior to this winter).  Nice ones from time to time, like this time last April where 2.5' fell here, but as a whole if you weren't in a lake effect sweet spot, winter's haven't been that great... extended thaws the past couple winter's too.  This winter, like you said, most of the UP had lake belt depths, and lake belt depths started looking like mountain depths.

Hard to forgive the 8" in March, tho.  I mean, I could change my grade to an A- maybe, but it's the equivalent of acing the whole school year, then skipping the exam.

 

 

I honestly had begun to think that outside of the famed lake belts northern Michigan winters were overdramatized because of how relatively insignificant the snowpack was. This year, I see what's possible lol.  As a side note, I do think it's funny when people in the North mock downstate winters. It's common sense that winters are harsher the further North you go, but sometimes the difference is greatly exaggerated other than of course the snowbelt. I especially loved when I was up North during a snowstorm in Feb how none of the locals went out (other than snowmobilers) for a couple inches of snow lol

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5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, it's crazy. 

I don't ever remember seeing fresh/white snow with temps in the 70s before.  There are still a few very small fresh piles of snow from 2 days ago (we got about 5" here). Sometimes you'll see piles of dirty/black snow left over from the winter when you get a really warm day in mid-late March...but it's extremely rare for us to see this drastic of a warm up after a significant snowfall. :snowman:

 I remember this after the April 6, 2009 snowstorm. The piles did not have a chance to get dirty lol so they were white among emerald green grass and very warm temperatures.  I also remember the last snowfall of the historic 2013-14 season (Apr 14/15) was the opposite effect. We finally got a warm day, temperature soared into the 70s then plummeted with snow by evening. It was the 1st day I could recall a high over 70゚ with measurable snowfall.

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3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, it's crazy. 

I don't ever remember seeing fresh/white snow with temps in the 70s, until today.  There are still a few very small fresh piles of snow from 2 days ago (we got about 5" here). Sometimes you'll see piles of dirty/black snow left over from the winter when you get a really warm day in mid-late March...but it's extremely rare for us to see this drastic of a warm up after a significant snowfall. :snowman:

Today's high at ORD was 73.  According to my research, this is the first time on record that Chicago has had a 4"+ calendar day snow and a high of 70+ within 2 days before or after.  

The closest example seems to be April 1967, which did it in opposite fashion to this year with the warmth coming first.  4/21/1967 (an infamous day in northeast IL weather history) had a high of 74 and 4/23/1967 had 3.1" snow.  

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First 80 degree day today at MLI, as they hit 81.  Made it to 79 here.  With dews pushing 60 earlier it felt pretty springlike.  The outside air has a different scent to it now too, with trees pollinating, etc.  

May get a brief downpour as Iowa's sloppy seconds move through in the next hour or so.  

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KIND's short term disscussion describes it pretty well around here... miserable lol....

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Miserable might be the best term to describe the bulk of the weather
expected through the short term period. The approaching upper trough
today will amplify Friday with an upper low closing off over the
Tennessee Valley. As this feature wobbles into the Ohio Valley
through late Saturday. The aforementioned surface wave near
Cincinnati Friday morning will spin just east of the forecast area
in response to the strengthening upper low before both features
kick out to the northeast Saturday night. This will place central
Indiana on the northwest side of the system throughout much of the
period and all but ensures two sloppy days for much of the area.

The northwest shift to the track of the upper low in the guidance
would suggest continued unsettled weather Friday into Saturday with
an increasing likelihood of a renewed period of widespread and
steady rainfall likely focused from Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning as a persistent mid level deformation axis parks
over the region and interacts with a strong E/NE low level flow
pulling around the northern side of the system. Still discrepancies
between where specifically the axis of steadiest rainfall will set
up...but higher pops are warranted for much of the area late Friday
through the first half of Saturday. While precip water values will
fall back...the forcing aloft will compensate and likely enable some
locations to pick up potentially an additional inch of rain from
Friday afternoon through Saturday.

Colder air will continue to advect into the region courtesy of the
strong northerly flow that will persist throughout much of the short
term. This will produce a period of chilly..raw and otherwise
miserable weather conditions Friday into at least the first half of
Saturday. The other potential impact is that the boundary layer may
cool enough late Friday night and Saturday to support some wet
snowflakes mixing in with rain... especially where the mid level
forcing is strongest. Surface temperatures will remain well above
freezing and rates are not expected to cause any issues whatsoever.
But...its the potential for snowflakes on April 20 which will just
add to the misery of the weather conditions.
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On 4/16/2019 at 9:37 PM, Hoosier said:

Today's high at ORD was 73.  According to my research, this is the first time on record that Chicago has had a 4"+ calendar day snow and a high of 70+ within 2 days before or after.  

The closest example seems to be April 1967, which did it in opposite fashion to this year with the warmth coming first.  4/21/1967 (an infamous day in northeast IL weather history) had a high of 74 and 4/23/1967 had 3.1" snow.  

Although it did not neatly align on the calendar day, I remember during the historic 2014 Winter the cold continued right into Spring with huge mounds of snow only very slowly melting throughout April. Then on April 13th temperatures soared to 79゚and it was an absolute shock to the system. On the 14th morning temperatures shot back up to 71゚, before crashing and snow developed during the evening. 3.2" had fallen by 7 a.m. the 15th.

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3 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

IND's short term disscussion describes it pretty well around here... miserable lol....


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Miserable might be the best term to describe the bulk of the weather
expected through the short term period. The approaching upper trough
today will amplify Friday with an upper low closing off over the
Tennessee Valley. As this feature wobbles into the Ohio Valley
through late Saturday. The aforementioned surface wave near
Cincinnati Friday morning will spin just east of the forecast area
in response to the strengthening upper low before both features
kick out to the northeast Saturday night. This will place central
Indiana on the northwest side of the system throughout much of the
period and all but ensures two sloppy days for much of the area.

The northwest shift to the track of the upper low in the guidance
would suggest continued unsettled weather Friday into Saturday with
an increasing likelihood of a renewed period of widespread and
steady rainfall likely focused from Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning as a persistent mid level deformation axis parks
over the region and interacts with a strong E/NE low level flow
pulling around the northern side of the system. Still discrepancies
between where specifically the axis of steadiest rainfall will set
up...but higher pops are warranted for much of the area late Friday
through the first half of Saturday. While precip water values will
fall back...the forcing aloft will compensate and likely enable some
locations to pick up potentially an additional inch of rain from
Friday afternoon through Saturday.

Colder air will continue to advect into the region courtesy of the
strong northerly flow that will persist throughout much of the short
term. This will produce a period of chilly..raw and otherwise
miserable weather conditions Friday into at least the first half of
Saturday. The other potential impact is that the boundary layer may
cool enough late Friday night and Saturday to support some wet
snowflakes mixing in with rain... especially where the mid level
forcing is strongest. Surface temperatures will remain well above
freezing and rates are not expected to cause any issues whatsoever.
But...its the potential for snowflakes on April 20 which will just
add to the misery of the weather conditions.

NAM looks to be particularly bullish on snow potential.

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5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Yeah, it's been hanging out with Randle McMurphy.  That would be the coup of the decade if that insanity actually happens..  :mapsnow:

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Will be interested to see 1) if a band of snow materializes and 2) if IND gets in on it.  Indy has only had one 1"+ snow from April 20 on, and it wasn't even in April.  2.4" on May 2, 1897.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Full sun, light winds, temps near 70, and the smell of fresh cut grass meshing with smoldering charcoal.  Makes up for last weekend's snow and cold lol.

Rub it in :tomato: lol.  We've had 3 miserable days of cold rain and wind.  Frost, wind then temps from morning 30's to mid 60's by late tomorrow afternoon, 70 on Monday and then rain Monday night thru Thursday.  Light at the end of the tunnel is for the first time in I don't know how long we might get 3 straight days after that dry and sunny, over a weekend no less!  We are definitely overdue for a reasonable weather stretch.  I'll take boring for a week right now lol.  It's just not fare you get an epic winter and then a spring to boot.  Jealous?  Hell ya!  ;)

  • Haha 3
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