janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: ..Lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Across northeastern Missouri into the vicinity of a warm frontal zone across parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, it appears that an area of enhanced forcing (associated with a convectively generated or enhanced mid-level cyclonic vorticity center now developing northeast of the Kansas City area) may still support an upscale growing convective system later this evening into the overnight hours. This may be accompanied by another swath of strong to severe wind gusts. its turning more east ...not sure how far north it will make it into N IL...at least the bow part...... of course WAA wing cells may form too though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Made it to the Dells for the weekend. Three tornado warnings to the west, all "radar indicated rotation."Will keep an eye on things but think I'm turned in for the night as far as chasing goes.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Sitting at 77/74 with near 4000 CAPE a county to the south of me and can't seem to get a storm to go. Hopefully something can take form and take advantage of this environment. It's miserable out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 LOT indicates that convection development will be underway soon. SPC says atmosphere is on a downward trend for intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 The cell on the WI/IL border could probably use a TOR warning. Hard to tell with distance to radar. Also, a couple cells south of LaCrosse look interesting.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 New LOT afd is pretty pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: New LOT afd is pretty pessimistic. This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX. new development over MLI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX. new development over MLI area Been a tough day. The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Today was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being. A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft. (Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.) After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nflow6 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Impressive! Looked fairly strong with decent vertical velocities and the best thing looked to mainly remain over likely un planted farmland? Thanks for Sharing that beauty! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Been a tough day. The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking. what total disaster ..... was there some kind of force field over N IL or something..... well its 3am...woke up And checked radar...thinking a MCS would be near by,,,but it's clear SPC enhanced risk didn't pan out ....that feature in Northern MO went poof hardy a drop of rain fell in LOT area....with a flash flood watch all day and night which was just cancelled..this of course caused the hydrograph forecast on the IL river to be to high..(see Morris) I have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.5 here which was the crest forecast yesterday and they just recently moved back...so I am keeping them updated trying to stay ahead of the forecast it is a messed up system....WPC issues the 24 and 48hr precipitation forecast around 2am and 2pm each day....the new river forecast is not issued until around 10am and 10pm going off of precipitation ending at 12z/0z AND the WPC forecast issued 7 hours earlier of course by that time meso features can change or it is obvious that precipitation forecast won't pan out yesterday at 12z 1.5 to 2 inches was expected to fall in the basin upstream when the crest was 25.5..last evening at 10pm they lowered it to 24.7 based on only 1-1.25 inches in the forecast issued ....well that didn't pan out either so there was almost zero precipitation that fell in the drainage basin upstream the new QPF forecast just out has 1/2 to 1 inch from I-80 south but only 1/4 to 1/2 inch over the NE part of the basin (around LOT area) and western burbs...so the new forecast issued at 10am will have almost ZERO precip that fell the past 12 hours and the above forecast precipitation...so it likely won't be even to 24.7 now when it issued in 6 hours (23.8 now) but for example lets say that activity blows up ( not saying it will just an example) over Northern MO and moves across Northern IL at 9am...and it becomes obvious more then 1/2 inch will fall up there. lets say 1- 2 inches.....the river forecast issued at 10am would still be based off the busted low WPC forecast issued at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 ouch ILX LOOKING AT CAMS, THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN WRONG IN ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION THEY GO. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS TIMES WHEN THERE IS NOTHING ON CAMS, BUT YET THERE IS EITHER DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SO AS FOR HOW MUCH I TRUST THESE MODEL INDICATIONS, I CANNOT SAY I RELY ON THEM AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Watch possibly forthcoming for central IN and OH due to incoming MCV from Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 9 hours ago, Nflow6 said: Impressive! Looked fairly strong with decent vertical velocities and the best thing looked to mainly remain over likely un planted farmland? Thanks for Sharing that beauty! Yea, didn’t look like it hit any significant structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Garden variety t storm here just ne of Indpls. Looks like more severe storms will develop to the east of me in the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 12 hours ago, hlcater said: Today was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being. A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft. (Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.) After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season! Very nice! That was a very photogenic tor. And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Very nice! That was a very photogenic tor. And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Surprised no one posted it. Good chance at high end severe storms Monday and Tuesday. Quote The main wave associated with persistent long-wave troughing over the West will finally begin to eject over the central Plains on D4/Tuesday. This wave will result in a 70-knot mid-level jet overspreading western portions of a strongly buoyant airmass that should be mostly undisturbed from any prior convection. An expansive area of convection should evolve along and ahead of a surface dryline located from western Oklahoma northward to southeastern Nebraska and along a warm front extending from a surface low in eastern Nebraska eastward to southern lower Michigan. Although mesoscale details are still unclear at this timeframe, the extent of convective coverage over the warm sector within a parameter space potentially supporting significant severe weather justifies introduction of a 30% area (equivalent to Enhanced Slight) in eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma within a broader area of 15% probabilities from the Oklahoma/Texas Red River northeastward to Iowa/Illinois. The specific locations of heightened risk may change with subsequent outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: Garden variety t storm here just ne of Indpls. Looks like more severe storms will develop to the east of me in the watch. LOL They died as quick as they entered. Welcome to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Early week does appear to have some potential. Just focusing on Monday for now, the warm frontal zone could get interesting. Will probably be dealing with storms early in the day though which could muddle things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Early week does appear to have some potential. Just focusing on Monday for now, the warm frontal zone could get interesting. Will probably be dealing with storms early in the day though which could muddle things. We first got to get through tonight and Sunday. Possible watch coming now for west central IL this Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 And there it is.. ..... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa West-central and northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri * Effective this Saturday night from 715 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Splitting discrete cells will pose a threat for primarily large hail this evening as they develop east from north-central Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Burlington IA to 60 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 These are the storms which will be giving the Indy 500 authorities fits for tomorrow's race as they hope they will be past the area by noon. Lots of campers tonight on the grounds just west of the track who just might get hit by severe weather in the overnight hours. I really hate that radar hole over northeast Missouri. Virtually all the storms in that se IA/ne MO cluster are severe warned at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 These storms will probably morph into a big ole severe MCS and swing southeastward overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, Indystorm said: These storms will probably morph into a big ole severe MCS and swing southeastward overnight. The storms near the MO/IA border are classic let’s turn and/or develop ESE and miss Peoria to the SW .. I will get some thunder and moderate rain .. even if models say it will move ENE and move over me or north it will turn more right 80 percent of the time I always get a chuckle out of the local tv Mets showing future radar and having them hitting Peoria head on expect a couple t-storm warnings and many flash warnings to my SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Very nice! That was a very photogenic tor. And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid. Had a chuckle when the horse skidded, on the wet pavement trotting by the camera. Fun video to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 53 minutes ago, DAFF said: Had a chuckle when the horse skidded, on the wet pavement trotting by the camera. Fun video to watch. I felt bad for the horse. You could see it had no problems with vehicles. But something going on with that guy in front of that other car really had the horse's attention as it drew close. Looks like the guy was fighting with a tripod. Was it a bang or clatter from it? Or was the guy on a Bluetooth phone and Reed Timmering and yelling at someone else. What ever something momentarily startled the horse and it sort of/ kind of lost it's gait for a nanosecond, but recovered well. Things like that can hurt a horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 Numerous 1" hail reports coming out of the IL QCA the past hour or so. We were under a warning for those storms but they are quickly crapping the bed, warning cancelled. Did give us a nice light show in the western/southwestern sky the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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