janetjanet998 Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 ILX special sounding at 20Z there is a 60 kt mid level speed eastern IA now...but models have it moving east..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 12, 2019 Author Share Posted August 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 1630z SPC OTLK ramped up TOR probs significantly in W IL and extreme SE IA... 5% at 1300 to 10% hatched on 1630z... hatched wind added to 30% on 1630z OTLK as well And the disco mentions an upgrade to moderate risk might be needed later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: And the disco mentions an upgrade to moderate risk might be needed later. Yup. 45% hatched wind is mod on wind chart while 15% hatched is mod on tor chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Is COD nexlab down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, George BM said: 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: Is COD nexlab down? Yes.. see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 COD is down, but there's an odd quirk. While I cannot make any fresh connections to the site, the two radar loops I had running yesterday when COD went down are still working and continue to refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 New thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 There was at least one tornado and possibly more in northwest Indiana this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Interesting meso on the tail end of that line in eastern IA. I'd hazard a guess it's tied to the outflow from the previous line to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 SPC had 5% tor probs on the day2 for today's setup. The new day1 has 0% probs for tor. Wonder which one will be correct? Still LOL-ing at Broyles 10% hatched nader for north-central Iowa a few days ago that was quickly downgraded and ended up being a big nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 Enhanced added to the IA/IL/MO border area for hail although a 5% tornado area added also. Quote ..KS TO LOWER MI ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN IL. ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS, A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN KS TO THE IA/IL/MO BORDER AREA. DESPITE NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCY, GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE IA/IL BORDER AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BULK OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER FROM CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHERN WI, SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN IL TO THE DRYLINE INTERSECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RESIDE NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK INTO EASTERN KS. LOW TO DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SUPERCELLS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD WITH SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED AS WELL. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND AN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, CERTAINLY A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE AND RELATED CAMS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHER-END TORNADO COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WITH CYCLOLYSIS EXPECTED, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. STILL, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES, WILL DOUBLE-UPGRADE FROM LESS THAN 2 PERCENT TO A 5 PERCENT AREA WITH THIS OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looking forward to 'nado vid that Cyclone is gonna snag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Looking forward to 'nado vid that Cyclone is gonna snag Best parameters are just a smidge sw of him although I presume they will move into his territory as the day progresses. 2500 MLCAPE, 8,5 mid level lapse rates, low LCL's, 3km helicity up to 350. Heck, I'm even wondering if there could be some action down my way later tonight or just north of me across IL and IN. 87/64 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: Best parameters are just a smidge sw of him although I presume they will move into his territory as the day progresses. 2500 MLCAPE, 8,5 mid level lapse rates, low LCL's, 3km helicity up to 350. Heck, I'm even wondering if there could be some action down my way later tonight or just north of me across IL and IN. 87/64 here now. 40% EF2+ tornado probs in the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Gonna have a hard time getting tornadoes with such a stable near surface environment. The only potential for surface based storms appears to be S of 74. Probably gonna be some decent hail reports regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Quite the conditional setup for tornadoes. As has been mentioned, the bulk of the activity looks to be on the cool side of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, hlcater said: Gonna have a hard time getting tornadoes with such a stable near surface environment. The only potential for surface based storms appears to be S of 74. Probably gonna be some decent hail reports regardless. you can tell on the Visible there may be some sort of inversion layer in the "warm"sector...so storms may be elevated .and its late september now....so peak heating over also 5+ inches here in north side of the city so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 21 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: you can tell on the Visible there may be some sort of inversion layer in the "warm"sector...so storms may be elevated .and its late september now....so peak heating over also 5+ inches here in north side of the city so far today Some wild flooding photos and videos coming out of the Peoria metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Some wild flooding photos and videos coming out of the Peoria metro. Northwoods Mall is off to the right of that picture across the road..Lowpoint is about 15 miles NE of Peoria 0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW PEORIA 40.79N 89.66W 09/27/2019 M5.25 INCH PEORIA IL PUBLIC NEAR NORTHWOODS MALL 0415 PM HEAVY RAIN LOW POINT 40.88N 89.32W 09/27/2019 M7.82 INCH WOODFORD IL BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED VIA WEEK-TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% introduced across central IA later. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE available, along with half decent turning in the low levels. Just hinges on discrete/semi discrete activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% introduced across central IA later. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE available, along with half decent turning in the low levels. Just hinges on discrete/semi discrete activity. They did add a 5% tornado area but from NE KS to SW/South Central IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Few warnings out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Tornado watch now issued for much of sw and central IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Likely tornado near MKX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Glad someone else saw this. That pass was too close for comfort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Watching the system at the end of next week. Could have some severe potential. Currently looks like the duration of moisture return is going to be somewhat limited but could be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Euro's slower solution results in better moisture return (not that the GFS was all that terrible in that regard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Guidance is in better agreement now on the slower solution. One of the negatives in this setup looks like junky mid level lapse rates. That could be overcome to some degree if forcing is strong enough but still a bit too far out to get into the finer details on system evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Interesting CIPS... there are a few big fall outbreaks in there, a couple smaller ones and quite a few that produced no severe wx in the region. Take your pick lol. I'd probably lean away from the bigger ones toward one of the smaller ones at this point given the concern about instability/mid level lapse rates. Usually it's sort of hard to reverse the mid level lapse rate problem on the models once it's there. Maybe pure advection can drive the temps up above guidance and help out the instability a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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