CoalCityWxMan Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Slight risk extended further south with new update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 slight risk nudged south into N IL ..UPPER MS VALLEY A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN TODAY, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN IA AND FAR WESTERN WI. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES OVER MUCH OF IA/IL, AND SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE CAPE WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS, BUT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR TENDENCY OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Severe thunderstorm warning for SE Wisconsin. Most areas in the squall line have had winds of 40-50mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 The HRRR can be a good model, but it appears to be terrible with these low-shear, cold-pool-driven MCSs. The model struggles to see them and refuses to keep them going beyond the first couple hours of each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR can be a good model, but it appears to be terrible with these low-shear, cold-pool-driven MCSs. The model struggles to see them and refuses to keep them going beyond the first couple hours of each run. It's not just the HRRR. All guidance has struggled badly, both yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Slight risk added to parts of the north/west sub for tomorrow. Quote ..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MN TO WESTERN NE BY 12Z SUNDAY. BY 00Z THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN NE WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE LOCATION/TIMING, AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING JUST NORTH /EAST OF THE WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WI. THIS FEATURE MAY POSE AN ONGOING THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER (7-7.5 C/KM) MID-LEVEL LAPSE SPREADING EAST ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS AND REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS ADVANCE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WI AND INTO IL ALONG AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHEAST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS, BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Yeah was just coming to post it. Looks like whatever complex there is may take a hard right turn as it gets to WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 The hrrr doesn’t have a clue. Completely dissipates the mcs in Wisconsin in the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The hrrr doesn’t have a clue. Completely dissipates the mcs in Wisconsin in the next hour And I'm wondering if SPC is leaning heavily upon it because they don't currently anticipate a new watch to the se. I would be watching the instability gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Just now, Indystorm said: And I'm wondering if SPC is leaning heavily upon it because they don't currently anticipate a new watch to the se. I would be watching the instability gradient. Yeah was puzzled that they weren't anticipating a new watch. The MCS is maintaining, and is only moving into a more favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: And I'm wondering if SPC is leaning heavily upon it because they don't currently anticipate a new watch to the se. I would be watching the instability gradient. Quite a significant one at that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 There we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Trees down in Pell Lake Wisconsin on the border with Illinois se of Lake Geneva. Widespread wind damage reported across southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0100 PM TSTM WND GST ROCKFORD AIRPORT 42.20N 89.10W 06/30/2019 M63 MPH WINNEBAGO IL ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Indystorm said: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0100 PM TSTM WND GST ROCKFORD AIRPORT 42.20N 89.10W 06/30/2019 M63 MPH WINNEBAGO IL ASOS Gusted to 58mph IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Seeing reports of a strong gust front out ahead of precip with these oncoming storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Seeing reports of a strong gust front out ahead of precip with these oncoming storms. Yeah, that’s what gusted me to 58. Haven’t had a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190630T1915Z/ LAKE IL-KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-COOK IL- 149 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR LAKE...EASTERN KANE...EASTERN MCHENRY...DUPAGE AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES... AT 148 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH CHICAGO TO HIGHLAND PARK TO ITASCA TO CAROL STREAM TO NEAR MAPLE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 67 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN ROSELLE IN DU PAGE COUNTY, IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHICAGO, AURORA, NAPERVILLE, ELGIN, WAUKEGAN, CICERO, ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, EVANSTON, SCHAUMBURG, BOLINGBROOK, PALATINE, SKOKIE, DES PLAINES, BERWYN, MOUNT PROSPECT, WHEATON, HOFFMAN ESTATES, OAK PARK, DOWNERS GROVE AND GLENVIEW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 I expected the storms to weaken approaching Milwaukee but also looks to be weakening as it heads into Chicago. Onshore winds doing their thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Have some siding and tree damage all from the gust front. The storms themselves managed to split around us and just got a T of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 213 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 330 PM CDT. * AT 211 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HIGHLAND PARK TO NEAR SHOREWOOD, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHICAGO, AURORA, JOLIET, NAPERVILLE, ELGIN, CICERO, HAMMOND, ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, EVANSTON, SCHAUMBURG, BOLINGBROOK, PALATINE, SKOKIE, DES PLAINES, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN, BERWYN, MOUNT PROSPECT AND WHEATON. INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 236 AND 294. I-57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 303 AND 358. I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND 155. I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 140. I-90 NEAR MILE MARKER 22. I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 74. I-290 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 29. I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 74. I-355 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30. INDIANA I-90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLNOIS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2019 Author Share Posted June 30, 2019 Second line back in SE MN/W WI with a couple warnings including a tornado warning west of Albert Lea MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 300 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOMENCE TO ST. ANNE TO NEAR CLIFTON TO 7 MILES WEST OF ASHKUM, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Yes, 80 mph warnings with the storms moving into nw IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Second line back in SE MN/W WI with a couple warnings including a tornado warning west of Albert Lea MN Wind shear and helicity are much stronger back with that second line, although I wonder how it will perform if it moves over areas already worked over by the first MCS. It certainly bears watching, especially if recovery occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Sub severe here at my place, but the winds are roaring...constantly been that way for about 10 minutes. Not like the usual “short” burst you get. But, my girlfriend is in Manteno and they apparently got rocked pretty good. Trees down and a bunch of stuff went flying with the winds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 New day 1... Slash right down 65 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Wildest weather I’ve ever seen. Trees and power lines down everywhere near Grant Park IL. The clouds were on the freaking ground! You could see them roaring across the field. Never seen anything like the skies I just saw Power is out. Wild stuff. Clouds were literally on the ground. No rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Possible watch coming for central and sw IN per SPC meso discussion. Just look at the radar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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