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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread


snowlover2
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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Funny how the caption says possible tornado.  Ya think?  

Just another reminder that occasionally you can get something like this on days which really aren't synoptically evident.

Weathernation on fb has video.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Here's a video from another angle.

 

Pretty sweet vid.  Around the 55 sec mark you can see a large chunk of tree floating in the air, and eventually crashes around the 1:02 mark.  Around the 1:04 mark you can see a tree get uprooted on the right side of the vid, just after that large piece of tree lands.

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IWX released information on a second, albeit weak tornado near South Bend. It contains an interesting narrative.

.SOUTH BEND TORNADO 2...

RATING:                 EF - 0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    65 - 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   10 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             JUN 23 2019 
START TIME:             832 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         2.7 ESE GULIVOIRE PARK 
START LAT/LON:          41.5929 / -86.2050

END DATE:               JUN 23 2019
END TIME:               836 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           2.6 ESE GULIVOIRE PARK 
END_LAT/LON:            41.5999 / -86.2050

SURVEY SUMMARY:  

VIDEO FOOTAGE INDICATED A SEPARATE WALL CLOUD OUTSIDE THE PARENT 
MESOCYCLONE SPAWNED A BRIEF, THIN TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF ROOSEVELT ROAD AND HAWTHORNE TRAIL. WEST FACING BARN 
DOORS WERE SLIGHTLY PUSHED IN AS THE NARROW CIRCULATION MOVED NORTH 
ACROSS THE PROPERTY WITH THE ONLY OTHER DAMAGE NOTED OCCURRING TO 
SMALL BRANCHES ON A NEARBY TREE. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH AND 
IMPACTED A OUTDOOR SCREENED STRUCTURE, DESTROYING IT AS WELL AS 
REMOVING SIDING AND SHINGLES FROM A DETACHED GARAGE. A RESIDENT WAS 
OUTSIDE AT THE TIME THE TORNADO STRUCK AND HAD TO HOLD ONTO A BEAM 
AS THE WIND HIT. A DOG WAS PICKED UP A FEW FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 
CARRIED TO THE SIDE OF THE HOME AND PLACED DOWN, UNHARMED. THE 
TORNADO THEN LIFTED SHORTLY AFTER THIS, ALSO SUPPORTED BY VIDEO 
FOOTAGE. 
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19 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

IWX released information on a second, albeit weak tornado near South Bed. It contains an interesting narrative.


.SOUTH BEND TORNADO 2...

RATING:                 EF - 0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    65 - 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   10 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             JUN 23 2019 
START TIME:             832 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         2.7 ESE GULIVOIRE PARK 
START LAT/LON:          41.5929 / -86.2050

END DATE:               JUN 23 2019
END TIME:               836 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           2.6 ESE GULIVOIRE PARK 
END_LAT/LON:            41.5999 / -86.2050

SURVEY SUMMARY:  

VIDEO FOOTAGE INDICATED A SEPARATE WALL CLOUD OUTSIDE THE PARENT 
MESOCYCLONE SPAWNED A BRIEF, THIN TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF ROOSEVELT ROAD AND HAWTHORNE TRAIL. WEST FACING BARN 
DOORS WERE SLIGHTLY PUSHED IN AS THE NARROW CIRCULATION MOVED NORTH 
ACROSS THE PROPERTY WITH THE ONLY OTHER DAMAGE NOTED OCCURRING TO 
SMALL BRANCHES ON A NEARBY TREE. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH AND 
IMPACTED A OUTDOOR SCREENED STRUCTURE, DESTROYING IT AS WELL AS 
REMOVING SIDING AND SHINGLES FROM A DETACHED GARAGE. A RESIDENT WAS 
OUTSIDE AT THE TIME THE TORNADO STRUCK AND HAD TO HOLD ONTO A BEAM 
AS THE WIND HIT. A DOG WAS PICKED UP A FEW FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 
CARRIED TO THE SIDE OF THE HOME AND PLACED DOWN, UNHARMED. THE 
TORNADO THEN LIFTED SHORTLY AFTER THIS, ALSO SUPPORTED BY VIDEO 
FOOTAGE. 

These are the kind of things I used to read about old time tornadoes.  Love hearing these personal details.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
756 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 830 PM EDT/730 PM CDT/.  
      
* AT 756 PM EDT/656 PM CDT/, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF  
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW CARLISLE, OR 11 MILES EAST  
  OF LA PORTE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
  WEST CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE COUNTIES,  
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... CRUMSTOWN.

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The upcoming pattern isn't great at all for severe lovers, which is bad news considering severe weather never really showed up for western portions of the sub(though IN has been having a great season so far). All models build in a suffocating ridge centered directly over the midwest and keep it there for at least a week. Think it's safe to write off any notable chances for severe weather until at least the 4th, if not later. Tomorrow holds some conditional chances of an MCS for IA/IL, but I would like a respectable setup worth chasing. Too much to ask for? Apparently so. 

As of now, I think I'd have to put the season so far as the worst one since 2013 in my area. 

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34 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The upcoming pattern isn't great at all for severe lovers, which is bad news considering severe weather never really showed up for western portions of the sub(though IN has been having a great season so far). All models build in a suffocating ridge centered directly over the midwest and keep it there for at least a week. Think it's safe to write off any notable chances for severe weather until at least the 4th, if not later. Tomorrow holds some conditional chances of an MCS for IA/IL, but I would like a respectable setup worth chasing. Too much to ask for? Apparently so. 

As of now, I think I'd have to put the season so far as the worst one since 2013 in my area. 

I don't think the pattern is as bleak as you are saying especially for ridge riding MCSs, though I do think Iowa may be too far south in this case with the ridge starting to flex its muscles a bit.

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15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't think the pattern is as bleak as you are saying especially for ridge riding MCSs, though I do think Iowa may be too far south in this case with the ridge starting to flex its muscles a bit.

I think we'll be too far SW, especially initially, but it seems plausible that the ridge settles into a more traditional position centered over the Panhandles with time. Once this happens a more favorable pattern for severe weather/NW flow may return, but I think this is at least 8 or 9 days out. For now, areas in the northeast of the sub have the greatest chances.

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Chicago Storm reporting 2" hail from the storm at Streamwood. I know from experience that will do some damage. I'm getting a new roof due to the May tennis balls.

What a day...

 

Hit 90 for the first time this year here this afternoon. The lake breeze passed around 6PM, and combined with the fact that the developing storms were along I-88 and moving ESE, I didn’t think we’d see anything. One storm managed to push NE though, along outflow that was surging NE as well, from the main activity further south.

 

The storm was high based, and had that good picturesque high based structure. A nice hail shaft was clearly visible too as it moved in. The storm ended up maxing out as it passed overhead. Ended up with a solid nearly 5-10 minute period of hail, with a few of the biggest stones up to 2.25”. Strong winds up to 55-60mph also accompanied the hail, making for a quality downburst. Trees were shredded with leaves flying everywhere, due to the hail/wind combo. The wind ended up bringing down a few small branches in the area as well. There was also widespread road flooding, mostly due to the combination heavy rains with the downburst and tree debris clogging storm drains. Following the storm was a double rainbow, some mammatus, and a quality backlit view of the storms departing at sunset.

 

There is still hail up to nearly penny size on the ground at this time, nearly 3 hours post storm. Believe it or not, this was the first storm to produce severe criteria activity IMBY since 2011.

 

c0d49f4ebaa0b8212d16d84a2fc2692e.jpg&key=4d4d4079efafbca155fd5b701e9d12bb832cf0a7dc95421077656eb4c82d1449

 

 

.

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14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hoping for a right turner into the instability gradient tonight

or maybe later today? or both?  ..models not catching on to the south end of that MCS very well..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0849 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL  
IA...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 271349Z - 271515Z  
  
CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED  
ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED  
DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 SOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...RADAR SIGNATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
LARGER MCS MOVING INTO MN AND NORTHERN IA HAS SHOWN INCREASED  
ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.  
CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 KT. AT  
THIS SPEED, THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE DMX CWA AROUND 15Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN  
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, BRINGING IT TO THAT REGION EARLIER.  
ORGANIZING CHARACTER OF THIS LINE AND DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL  
DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE LINE  
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN MAY REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 BY 15Z.  
  
AS A RESULT, ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND  
SOUTHERN MN SOON.  

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