cyclone77 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Surprised SPC didn't issue a 2% tor threat from IL to parts of OH. These remnant circulations have a tendency to overachieve with lots of remnant vorticity. As Hoosier mentioned wind profiles aren't all that impressive, but they look good enough for the potential to see several tors this afternoon/early eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Surprised SPC didn't issue a 2% tor threat from IL to parts of OH. These remnant circulations have a tendency to overachieve with lots of remnant vorticity. As Hoosier mentioned wind profiles aren't all that impressive, but they look good enough for the potential to see several tors this afternoon/early eve. We'll see what happens in the next update. As IWX mentioned Mike Ryan at IND is aware of the situation. Good chunk of se IN from Evansville to Ft. Wayne in marginal risk with cells starting to pop in the PAH area moving ne. 78/71 here just before noon with south wind at 16 gusting to 23. Intermittent sun and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Looks like SPC is just expecting some downbursts and heavy rain with little shear for anticipated spin ups for Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT. * AT 1247 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PROVIDENCE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... DIXON AROUND 100 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SLAUGHTERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Good grief! NWS radars are either down or having problems now at 2 p.m. EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Good grief! NWS radars are either down or having problems now at 2 p.m. EDT. Yeah I’ve tried several times. Can’t even get main page to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 113 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... NORTH CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT. * AT 113 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STANLEY, OR NEAR OWENSBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ROCKPORT AROUND 130 PM CDT. THIS INCLUDES AUDUBON PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 ....and there it is, you beat me to it Joe. I just told my Director to expect some tornado warnings even though SPC doesn't have ANY threat in Marginal risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Per IWX, it was a national blackout affecting all NWS services. Everything's been moved to backup and should be available now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Per IWX, it was a national blackout affecting all NWS services. Everything's been moved to backup and should be available now. Thanks. With the recent Manhattan outage it really does make me worry about the status of our infrastructure in many areas of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Had a good heavy shower here thanks to remnants of Barry. It is interesting to see the banding of the rain showers on the IND radar which is typical of tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Still raining here. Gonna be a sauna when that big shiny thing comes up in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 HRRR and other CAMs are still pretty gung ho on supercells this evening across central and E IA, however CAMs are doing a terrible job handling the MCS in NW IA right now, so I’m highly doubting these solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Yeah, the CAMs insisted the morning MCS would crap out as it entered nw Iowa. So far it is holding together very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 The SPC is expecting the MCS to possibly strengthen this afternoon as central and eastern Iowa heat up and destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Nice bowing segment plowing through west central Illinois. Wouldn’t mind getting a healthy drink before the heatwave, but it appears the heaviest precipitation will fall to my SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 ACCAS clouds now building in se S.D. and sw MN with a tor warning in the area. Could be the start of another complex for overnight this Thursday into Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Tornado watch now issued for southern MN and extreme northern IA for this Thursday evening. This might develop into the MCS that will move east/se overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Must be warm frontal action in that tornado watch area in southern MN. Don't know if it will eventually turn se. Looks like wind trajectory is basically east so the storms should stay over southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 There is a tornado warned storm east of Lacrosse, WI. It spun up out of a blob-like multicell cluster. Tomorrow: models have some impressive supercell and tornado indices out ahead of a potential squall line in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 00z Nam is maxing out the precipitable water values in Western Ontario, with 2.5+ stretching back to Detroit. Could this be close to a record for the region? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 Moderate risk now for parts of MN/WI with a 15% tornado area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 Also mentioned possibly a derecho. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon to evening. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal flow regime across the northern states. A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by guidance. The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60 kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant severe wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 Looking like there’s pretty solid chances for a strong/severe MCS somewhere across E IA and W IL come Monday. Might be a shot for an isolated tornado early given rather impressive parameters in place, but seems more liable to go upscale sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 11, 2019 Author Share Posted August 11, 2019 An enhanced area has been added to central IL for tomorrow on new day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 I just saw a funnel cloud from my house... my first ever. I was outside at the end of my street, in an open area, when I saw what appeared to be a funnel dipping out of a small cell that had just popped. It drifted south and became better defined for 5+ minutes, then dissipated just as the sirens went off. It apparently came 3/4 of the way to the ground. The NWS is asking if anyone saw it touch down. Here in the city my view of the horizon was obstructed . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I just saw a funnel cloud from my house... my first ever. I was outside at the end of my street, in an open area, when I saw what appeared to be a funnel dipping out of a small cell that had just popped. It drifted south and became better defined for 5+ minutes, then dissipated just as the sirens went off. It apparently came 3/4 of the way to the ground. The NWS is asking if anyone saw it touch down. Here in the city my view of the horizon was obstructed . I didn’t see it, but I know a few people that did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Tomorrow, the EHI and tornado parameters could be nearly the maximum that you might ever expect in the month August. Thunderstorms are likely across central Illinois. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 1630z SPC OTLK ramped up TOR probs significantly in W IL and extreme SE IA... 5% at 1300 to 10% hatched on 1630z... hatched wind added to 30% on 1630z OTLK as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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