Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sounds like it's run out of James' basement. There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the "James-Kevin" equation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's Navier-Stokes based fluid and themodynamics... Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the "James-Kevin" equation - Not ironic that they abbreviate it with "j/k" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Not ironic that they abbreviate it with "j/k" Right ...right... It's all clear now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like 12z Has all the convection with the Thursday deal offshore.. let the fun begin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Can't wait to see who has more fantasy canes, FV3 or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Looks like the new GFS crapped itself right out of the gate. Sweet. Most of the area less than 0.1"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like the new GFS crapped itself right out of the gate. Sweet. In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue. I have to back Louis up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue. I have to back Louis up on this one. I mean it;s solution for tomorrow. That looks a little too light on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 It keeps the EML south Sunday/Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 I found a place with a 700-500 lapse rate almost 10 and sfc- 3km almost 11 EDIT: just joking here...just funny to see those numbers. the sfc starts above 850 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Well we shall see. Maybe all of SNE aside from the Cape get the 7/10 split, but having trouble seeing QPF that low over such a wide area. SPC HREF makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Nice battle right out of the gate. Isn't the old op still available for awhile? Did that get moved to the para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Question. So is today's " 12Z GFS" the FV3 data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well we shall see. Maybe all of SNE aside from the Cape get the 7/10 split, but having trouble seeing QPF that low over such a wide area. SPC HREF makes sense to me. I would be shocked if it ended up that low. Just doesn't seem right given the setup. Pretty strong isentropic lift and PWATS > 1.50'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice battle right out of the gate. Isn't the old op still available for awhile? Did that get moved to the para? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Question. So is today's " 12Z GFS" the FV3 data? Best way to check is via the simulated satellite. FV3 is better resolution (different parameterization) than the old GFS. So Tidbits was FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 It brings snow to the mountains of NW WY...THE FIRST DAY AFTER SUMMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Wait how is this going to be reflected in bufkit? PSU site only has "GFS"...never even had GFS FV3. 12z usually out by now but its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Wait how is this going to be reflected in bufkit? PSU site only has "GFS"...never even had GFS FV3. 12z usually out by now but its not Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core. I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core. I've been thinking about this too...is it possible that increasing resolution size and layers could actually reduce the accuracy of models (unless that model is specifically designed for mesoscale?) I feel like if the resolution becomes too granular it may start picking up on certain "things" which could totally screw up the projection? Unless of course I guess this was adjusted for in the incredibly complex codes...but overall there have been these significant changes to the GFS with regards to resolution with not much improvement (or what would be thought) over the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Although this is probably the first time I've never not seen the GFS show massive convective blobs past like 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've been thinking about this too...is it possible that increasing resolution size and layers could actually reduce the accuracy of models (unless that model is specifically designed for mesoscale?) I feel like if the resolution becomes too granular it may start picking up on certain "things" which could totally screw up the projection? Unless of course I guess this was adjusted for in the incredibly complex codes...but overall there have been these significant changes to the GFS with regards to resolution with not much improvement (or what would be thought) over the last several years. Well the resolution didn't change this time around. But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Well the resolution didn't change this time around. But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. ahhh I thought the resolution and amount of layers broken into was increased. All in all though this has been in testing for quite some time and I'm sure it would not become operational if there were significant issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Well the resolution didn't change this time around. But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: ahhh I thought the resolution and amount of layers broken into was increased. All in all though this has been in testing for quite some time and I'm sure it would not become operational if there were significant issues. I read that in several cases it outperformed the Euro for tropical systems in regards to model forecast error so I'm expecting good things with it. Here is one article I read that highlights a lot of new features: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical? Certain parameters may improve (like the satellite microphysics I mentioned) but like you say the grid resolution won't. This upgrade will make it easier to change resolution down the road though, which is one of the major reasons for the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Any particular reason the,fv3 maintains high resolution beyond D10? Worth the delay and server load? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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