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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Can see a little rope cloud on the leading edge of the backdoor front. So that's fun.

Enjoy the warm day down in SNE. :cliff:

You were kidding right ... ?

nah, heh ... BD 'ill be in Trenton NJ by lunchtime - we ain't gettin' no 'warm day' ... 

This was bustin' from the get-go, less we collectively were dumb-down to mouth breathers, negating all aspects of both experience and education in such matters...

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Granted some annoyance motivated that word choice to Chris buuut... sufficed it is to say (and I've opined/commiserated this amply in the past...), if there is a BD anywhere on the map around New England from ...circa April 1 to almost July ... the planet Mercury fails to warm sector on the side that is tidally locked toward the sun too - that's right ... so bad, it f*'s that other planet's warm day up... ha.   It's called hyperbole Kevin -

Although... there does seem to be needed a standing perfunctory correction ... There is no model or technology capable of [ apparently ] correctly positioning that particularly type of low level feature, BD frontal movement, in space and time, out in space and time.... None.  And that includes the Euro. Some do better than others.. sure, but none really master that.

I tell you what ... as an [ apparently ] successful Science Fiction author, I almost would suggest that there is something beyond mere Ekman uncertainty and planetary/atmospheric surface drag obscuring, that is really doing that.  I've seen a lot of Euro runs in the past ... 10 years really, where the model has closed tiny pockets of 0 C 850 mb air lingering over the surface E of the cordillera (roughly WV-W. Maine) - anything east of that axis... and that is despite 12 solid hours of having veered the winds around to the SW with no apparent countering shear - ie., unidirectional in the vertical.  So ...how...why? It almost seems there is an electrostatic "cling" effect - perhaps related to thermal absorption that adds an additional weighting to retarding warm ... when added, draws BDs SW from an additional kind of previously unknown vector.  Hey... lightning can kill a golfer on the 8th hole of Lake Valley Club out side of Boulder Colorado from a vaguely visible horizon CB ..50 miles yonder in one of these bolt from the blue deals... There can be some sort of cling/static effect between the atmospheres and the Earth below ...

But we're spit-ballin' for fun here.  Whatever the cause in reality, fronts CAN'T be assessed properly when they start moving SW under their own momentum ... in a positive static stability sounding (that's where warm is over cold below)...  The only time that busts warm is if the front doesn't really exist - I've seen the models create faux BD in the mid range ...whole 'nother headache.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can see it retreating around the Pike on vis...not that it will do me any good.

that's a good idear Brian... heh, I was so interested in castigating the entire day for this shit that I just leaped at the opportunity to do so ... auto assessing the boundary as wrapping three times around the planet if for no other reason, to bust anyone [personally] that looked forward to a warm day ...ha

But hi res vis imagery/sat in general can help elucidate...    I will add, the boundary will be south and west of BD cloud edges by some... but if it is truly retreating... we'll see..

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

d8a.gif

Mm...

Read the graph ... don't respond to pretty colors... Those are modest warm anomalies?  Those contours suggest that region is ~ 100 meters warmer than normal... That's 10 DM ... or the arbitrary difference between 540 to 550 ... 570 to 580...etc.  In other words, very modest on an actual daily chart if even noticeable.

Now, ....the word "torch" is obviously subjective... Maybe he thinks of that as a torch - okay... But, I don't think honestly that's what he had in mind - if he had anything in mind at all...  No, as usual.. .he saw that orange ball and impulsively voted for Trump.

 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...

Read the graph ... don't respond to pretty colors... Those are modest warm anomalies?  Those contours suggest that region is ~ 100 meters warmer than normal... That's 10 DM ... or the arbitrary difference between 540 to 550 ... 570 to 580...etc.  In other words, very modest on an actual daily chart if even noticeable.

Now, ....the word "torch" is obviously subjective... Maybe he thinks of that as a torch - okay... But, I don't think honestly that's what he had in mind - if he had anything in mind at all...  No, as usual.. .he saw that orange ball and impulsively voted for Trump.

 

Great Post!!!!!

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...

Read the graph ... don't respond to pretty colors... Those are modest warm anomalies?  Those contours suggest that region is ~ 100 meters warmer than normal... That's 10 DM ... or the arbitrary difference between 540 to 550 ... 570 to 580...etc.  In other words, very modest on an actual daily chart if even noticeable.

Now, ....the word "torch" is obviously subjective... Maybe he thinks of that as a torch - okay... But, I don't think honestly that's what he had in mind - if he had anything in mind at all...  No, as usual.. .he saw that orange ball and impulsively voted for Trump.

 

Eh..looks fine.

tenor (1).gif

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21 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Shhh..dr dews acts like he knows more than he leads on....hasn’t been right yet since he started posting. He sets his alarm in 3 hour increments and lives aNd breathes off each model run, stick a forky fork in him, he’s done...

Heh... there's humiliating Kevin... okay - but this looks a little like a personal sniper fire...

 

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image.png.ea0976b5966eaddedb29c1281f73ff16.png  

...this is the front regardless of the sun coming out and the clouds peeling away... Maybe this erodes during the day - and in fact... models are suggesting it does.. we'll see, but, if anything it hearkens to the shallow nature of this BD air mass... It's hard to imagine that can really happen with that 1028 fatty sitting up there over NE Maine but that feature's bodily moving away in these guidance that I don't trust - ha

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