40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 I'm not sure what you are so confused about Kevin. I agree with Will. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure what you are so confused about Kevin. I agree with Will. He's dying for man snow I guess. Will try to take down anyone who speaks sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Not that mo counts for much buut... seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies. It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes Pretty much, Euro-esque... I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction. Marginal.. fast mover... Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not that mo counts for much buut... seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies. It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes Pretty much, Euro-esque... I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction. Marginal.. fast mover... Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon... Definitely progressive. 12z GFS looks like a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not that mo counts for much buut... seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies. It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes Pretty much, Euro-esque... I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction. Marginal.. fast mover... Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon... Is your Nape peeling yet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 GFS showing some impressive warmth on the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is your Nape peeling yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 28 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: GFS showing some impressive warmth on the way meh. Don't think anything screams warmth coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: meh. Don't think anything screams warmth coming up Depends on what one considers warm. 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Depends on what one considers warm. 80s? True. I guess if we're talking relative to climo I don't think we are going to see anything warm (nothing long sustaining anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 On 3/26/2019 at 3:14 PM, Dr. Dews said: Cutoff season, though. We all hope if something does develop, it stays well southeast and offshore...at worst some raw east winds for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely progressive. 12z GFS looks like a whiff. Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 at any time...there is going to be a slow mover that's not progressive ... I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 of any season...there is going to be a slow mover of that's not progressive ... I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is - Mainly because we can by blocking with the exception of March 2018. And your gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Let’s whiff and sniff some sun and blooms instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 At least we have .......the lawn thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mainly because we can by blocking with the exception of March 2018. And your gradient. .. it's not my gradient - it's gradient that results when you take a post Younger/Dryas ... and subject it to roughly the last 200 year's worth of industrial revolution's conversion to economic ambition, while not connecting any moral culpability along the way... But I knew what you meant though. I think this is stage one of GW's relentless assaults on winters in general. Hypothetically: Stage I: the atmosphere above the 60th parallel plummets every November when the sun fades below the horizon/critical irradiance levels. But...GW is holding 2 to 10 decameters of ambient heights below that latitude ... too subtle to show up on the typical anomaly scales, but when those cold heights press into that girdle at mid latitudes, the flow goes vroooom! It makes sense that 2018 waited so late - if such a hypothesis has any validity, because by then... it's like 'finally' the surrounding medium isn't pressing back as much. Stage II is when the rapidly warming polar regions close enough of the difference that late autumn gradient doesn't slope as steeply between 75 and 35N... Who knows when that is... decades from now - or less... I've always thought of 2015/Feb as being so far suppressed that it actually benefited some regions by virtue of being deeply inside the SPV - but even that year...things tended to move right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Chose some random years with EML events in the Northeast and the associated 700mb pattern for April. Might not be all that dissimilar to what the pattern may be for this April!!! Hopefully it is a very active year with plenty of damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Ha! speak of the devil... not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up! that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles! Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact - Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover. All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! speak of the devil... not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up! that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles! Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact - Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover. All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 " It’s a safe bet to sell that idea at D6 in January too. Even more so in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 If it misses it’s another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 EPS is pretty bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it misses it’s another cold shot. Looks like a mild down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 It’s a shame the airmass is putrid, it would have even better potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 Torch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it misses it’s another cold shot. Perfect, anything to increase my spring heating bills is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 F*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Unless it's a 10"-20" storm I want nothing to do with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Must be some weenie members because the mean temps were borderline even in high el. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Must be some weenie members because the mean temps were borderline even in high el. It's probably one of those setups where a "mean" is relatively worthless. If the storm doesn't track perfectly it's 50F and NBD. Perfect track and we dynamically flip to 32F at parachutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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