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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Not that mo counts for much buut... 

seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies.  It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes

Pretty much, Euro-esque...  I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction.  Marginal.. fast mover...  Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon...  

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that mo counts for much buut... 

seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies.  It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes

Pretty much, Euro-esque...  I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction.  Marginal.. fast mover...  Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon...  

Definitely progressive. 12z GFS looks like a whiff.

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that mo counts for much buut... 

seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies.  It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes

Pretty much, Euro-esque...  I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction.  Marginal.. fast mover...  Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon...  

Is your Nape peeling yet?

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely progressive. 12z GFS looks like a whiff.

Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 at any time...there is going to be a slow mover that's not progressive ... 

I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is - 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 of any season...there is going to be a slow mover of that's not progressive ... 

I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is - 

Mainly because we can by blocking with the exception of March 2018. And your gradient.

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mainly because we can by blocking with the exception of March 2018. And your gradient.

:)  .. it's not my gradient - it's gradient that results when you take a post Younger/Dryas ... and subject it to roughly the last 200 year's worth of industrial revolution's conversion to economic ambition, while not connecting any moral culpability along the way... 

But I knew what you meant though. 

I think this is stage one of GW's relentless assaults on winters in general.   

Hypothetically: 

Stage I:  the atmosphere above the 60th parallel plummets every November when the sun fades below the horizon/critical irradiance levels. But...GW is holding 2 to 10 decameters of ambient heights below that latitude ... too subtle to show up on the typical anomaly scales, but when those cold heights press into that girdle at mid latitudes, the flow goes vroooom! It makes sense that 2018 waited so late - if such a hypothesis has any validity, because by then... it's like 'finally' the surrounding medium isn't pressing back as much.  

Stage II is when the rapidly warming polar regions close enough of the difference that late autumn gradient doesn't slope as steeply between 75 and 35N... Who knows when that is... decades from now - or less...  

I've always thought of 2015/Feb as being so far suppressed that it actually benefited some regions by virtue of being deeply inside the SPV - but even that year...things tended to move right along. 

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Ha! speak of the devil... 

not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up!  that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles!  

Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact -

Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover.  All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 " 

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha! speak of the devil... 

not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up!  that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles!  

Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact -

Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover.  All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 " 

It’s a safe bet to sell that idea at D6 in January too. Even more so in April. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be some weenie members because the mean temps were borderline even in high el.

It's probably one of those setups where a "mean" is relatively worthless. If the storm doesn't track perfectly it's 50F and NBD. Perfect track and we dynamically flip to 32F at parachutes.

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