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April Discussion


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This is how the first patch of grass I've seen in 5+ months looks. :yikes:

It's only melted there because of the warmth coming up from the septic tank below. Still covered pretty much everywhere except where there's some ground water melting the snow from below. Depth is 10-18" in the woods, average ~15". 23" max depth.

 

56718583_1975356229242390_7614651066444939264_n.jpg

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18 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

This is how the first patch of grass I've seen in 5+ months looks. :yikes:

It's only melted there because of the warmth coming up from the septic tank below. Still covered pretty much everywhere except where there's some ground water melting the snow from below. Depth is 10-18" in the woods, average ~15". 23" max depth.

 

56718583_1975356229242390_7614651066444939264_n.jpg

Someone told me you were a hot shit.

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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

What I want to do is map each snowfall event for several years, forecast vs. obs and from that generate a bias map. ALY has done this already, and can see the spots they forecast too much or too little snow. 

Ideally you could then stratify it between flow regime (e.g. SWFEs only), and create bias maps based on event type. Those could then be used back in the forecast process.

Would love to see such a product, and learn whether I'm in a "special" spot, or perhaps don't measure correctly.

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't see how NNE avoids fairly serious flooding the next few weeks.  There is a lot of water forecast to be dumped into that snow pack. 

Depends mainly on RA, as I've yet to see a major NNE flood caused only by snowmelt.  In 2001 we entered April with 48" at my snow stake, 10-12" LE.  Then April 1-20 averaged 46/24, every morning was sub-freezing and the highest temp was 53.  Only 0.78" fell during that period and from 4/1 thru 5/11 only 0.86".  The folks managing the dams in the Rangeley Lakes country were braced for a flood and 3 weeks later were wondering when we'd get enough rain to bring the lakes to full pool. 
Same thing happened up north in 1984 - 46" with 15" LE on 4/1 with 5'+ in the mid-upper St. John-Allagash watersheds, then a dry April.  Temps were slightly AN (month averaged 37.1) and that plus little RA got all that monstrous pack down the rivers w/o anything beyond minor flooding, if that.  With such a tall dense pack, we thought, "This will be the year that tests the dike."  That came in 2008, when peak melt coincided with a 3" RA.

Still 22" pack this AM, with probably 8-9" water.  May be under 10" by Tuesday, gone next weekend.

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7 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

This is how the first patch of grass I've seen in 5+ months looks. :yikes:

It's only melted there because of the warmth coming up from the septic tank below. Still covered pretty much everywhere except where there's some ground water melting the snow from below. Depth is 10-18" in the woods, average ~15". 23" max depth.

 

56718583_1975356229242390_7614651066444939264_n.jpg

Similar to West Hartford when the rest of the state is covered

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It's melting.  My yard is now about 30 to 50% grass.  The garden should be snow-free after this weekend.  

Daily dog walks are getting slick as the Rec Path is gray-scale ice, indicating the end of the snowpack is near.

Solid cover since November 12th...

5 full months now of 1"+ cover.IMG_2850.JPG.03bcb82af63026fef1be3cf47c7ec163.JPG

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like starting Monday we will have substantial cutters every Several days for a while. Dem rivers will be rising . Stowe is gonna have quite the melt up top

There is a lot of water locked up in that snowpack... 1-2.5 feet of water from base to summit.

Flood Watches are likely warranted for some time if it starts raining regularly.

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's melting.  My yard is now about 30 to 50% grass.  The garden should be snow-free after this weekend.  

Daily dog walks are getting slick as the Rec Path is gray-scale ice, indicating the end of the snowpack is near.

Solid cover since November 12th...

5 full months now of 1"+ cover.IMG_2850.JPG.03bcb82af63026fef1be3cf47c7ec163.JPG

Shut em down 

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I'm sure you guys mentioned this but ... huh, the Euro actually acquiesced to the GFS ? 

Speaking in deference to the warm frontal boundary on Marathon Monday ... The Euro drills it to Mt Washington now... which if anything is actually N of the GFS position Monday morning...

That ought to get the flood wick wet and waiting as that kind of warmth impinging upon the glacial laden slopes is liable to set off a lahar my god... Luckily the synoptic rains associated with that low are haulin' serious ass and will be out of the way before that can add appreciably, otherwise...  heh-

Beyond that... man +3 C at 850 mb at sun up on Wed ... with nothing by unadulterated open sky sun all day is likely to bring the toppiest top ten day that ever topped ... at least so far this year.

That next day ... if that BD can somehow stay off shore ( highly unlikely of course) 83 ....   But, all this is predicated on the assumption that D5 and 6 is going to be well handled... who knows. That next system does keep cutting farther west in each run though.

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