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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

:gun_bandana:

He is in a tough spot though. Edge of the foothills, models love to be too cold there (especially aloft). It's easy to keep it below freezing at the surface, but easier to mix or get poor ratios than you think. But nobody is in a tougher spot than @alex. We just can't capture the terrain changes with our resolution.

Sometimes we hit the spot, but the Rt 2 snow shield is often quite effective.  :o

Another notable cold afternoon spoiled by the previous evening - never got past 27 yesterday daylight, but was 36 at obs time the previous evening.  Another 0.2" overnight (plus 0.03" in fzdz) for 3.7" total.

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14 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

:gun_bandana:

He is in a tough spot though. Edge of the foothills, models love to be too cold there (especially aloft). It's easy to keep it below freezing at the surface, but easier to mix or get poor ratios than you think. But nobody is in a tougher spot than @alex. We just can't capture the terrain changes with our resolution.

Annoying as it is, I can see how impossible that would be. Take yesterday... You would have to be able to capture the 15 degrees variations I saw driving around a 30 mile loop. It would require a ridiculous amount of data

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Omg, 00z Euro if one is a spring enthusiast! 

Just get us to Friday, baby.  

That day transitions definitively in the morning ... from a cold rad overnight into a whopper diurnal recovery.  By 00z Saturday ( 8 pm ) ... large high pressure has moved well SE of Cape Cod. Return flow is well established ...unabated, with no indication of warm frontal pressure contouring/contaminating skies intervening...  Given that 12 to 18 hour synoptic evolution from dawn to dusk, that was quite likely ample open sky sun.  850 mbs are running +9 to +11 C and with deep layer WSW flow that's well mixed and probably closer to maxing potential. 

If that evolution verifies .. I could see that being 72 F around 2 to 4 pm across the region (...away from the S. coast).  Saturday has a shot at upper 70s ...as that pattern is slow to transition and the Kevin mentioned... the SE ridge is exerting.  Looks like Saturday has a fairly high lunch launch pad with +12 C at 850s ... similar deep layer well mixed, with more sun early... 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Omg, 00z Euro if one is a spring enthusiast! 

Just get us to Friday, baby.  

That day transitions definitively in the morning ... from a cold rad overnight into a whopper diurnal recovery.  By 00z Saturday ( 8 pm ) ... large high pressure has moved well SE of Cape Cod. Return flow is well established ...unabated, with no indication of warm frontal pressure contouring/contaminating skies intervening...  Given that 12 to 18 hour synoptic evolution from dawn to dusk, that was quite likely ample open sky sun.  850 mbs are running +9 to +11 C and with deep layer WSW flow that's well mixed and probably closer to maxing potential. 

If that evolution verifies .. I could see that being 72 F around 2 to 4 pm across the region (...away from the S. coast).  Saturday has a shot at upper 70s ...as that pattern is slow to transition and the Kevin mentioned... the SE ridge is exerting.  Looks like Saturday has a fairly high lunch launch pad with +12 C at 850s ... similar deep layer well mixed, with more sun early... 

we take....

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8 minutes ago, 512high said:

we take....

Bar graphs are trying to sell 52 regionally for a high on Friday - 

Not sure I buy that.. . I've noticed that in the past temperatures off the Euro can be egregiously incongruent with the model's own synoptic layout beyond D4.  

Given the evolution of the geopotential medium and the lower tropospheric features contained, combined... that day should be > 50 % sun with active SW mixing breeze ... under 850 mb temperature raising toward 10 C ... it's not going to just be 52 F with cold damming like it's insulting us with

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Largely persistence. The pattern continues to favor troughs in the western/central US. In winter/early spring that still works out for NNE in terms of snow, but soon enough the sun overcomes all but the strongest confluence and we all end up on the warm side of these systems.

As for the day 6 system, I don’t know what’s worse for flooding risk, bc with origins near the gulf in mid April, if she winds up early and cuts there will be a slug of moisture and a good soaking for all. Right now for northern NNE the outcome looks 65/35 for this to slide south of areas with significant snowcover. That said the pattern looks active and AN beyond this week, so areas still socked in deep winter will be trying to “thread the needle” to avoid moderate to significant flooding risks for the next few weeks...

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Largely persistence. The pattern continues to favor troughs in the western/central US. In winter/early spring that still works out for NNE in terms of snow, but soon enough the sun overcomes all but the strongest confluence and we all end up on the warm side of these systems.

As for the day 6 system, I don’t know what’s worse for flooding risk, bc with origins near the gulf in mid April, if she winds up early and cuts there will be a slug of moisture and a good soaking for all. Right now for northern NNE the outcome looks 65/35 for this to slide south of areas with significant snowcover. That said the pattern looks active and AN beyond this week, so areas still socked in deep winter will be trying to “thread the needle” to avoid moderate to significant flooding risks for the next few weeks...

Euro seems to 'respect' the season more. The diabatic annihilation of crucial lower tropospheric gradients seems to fit why it's low pressure seems to attentuate/fill as it is crossing NE ...  Contrasting, the GFS and it's parallel run are deepening it further.

Not sure how those difference effect the QPF layouts... without seeing those specific numbers in the Euro.. But the GFS is about a 9 to 12 hour gulp of cold rain with elevation glop  ... 1.5" ?   

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I've noticed that about the GFS in spring.  That model tends to fight the inevitability of the change pretty routinely ... I almost imagine ( if out of frustration alone) whether NCEP still runs cool season versus warm season parameterized versions - ... April 15 and they switch over or something.  

I know back in the 1990s there were seasonal variations of these various models ...I don't know if that's ancient history and they are all now seamless ... Or even if so, whether there's some sort of heritage in there that still effects.  But warm ups that are getting more prevalent in the late mid range ... the GFS fights them tooth and nail...Then, upon inevitably having to acquiesce ... it can't wait to oblate extended thickness layout.. 

It's not hugely obvious ...but once you see it doing that it gets hard to ignore.  

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The big Hell should be placed 50 miles north.  So much ice outside.  28F freezing drizzle.  We had the snow yesterday AM then hours of sleet then light freezing drizzle last night and this AM.  So lots of scraping on windshields.  Trees have a glaze too.

Wonder if I will score any frozen later today?  Probably too warm upstairs even if I stay below 32F at the surface.

No yard work this week.  Finally lost most snow cover late last week so had a few days of seeing brown grass.  This new, sleet-filled snow cover will take a couple days to melt off. At least the sledding is good if anyone wants to take the 1:45 minute trip up here from downtown Boston.

Then next week?  Oh boy.

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I mean ... I know it's Maine and all .. but good christmas!  Isn't pan-state 25-30 F a bit of an anomaly approaching mid April? wtf ... 

And not for while...like 30 hours and counting...  That's gotta be unusual. 

I wonder what NASA monthly press release re the state of the climate and GW monitoring will look like ...  They put that out once every 30 days, where they color-code graphically, regions across the face of the planet where relative warm and cool anomalies have situated. I've opined over this in the past ...how eastern N/A has been proximal to a cool region more months than not, going back some 10 years worth; despite those that despise warmth and think it's been hellacious, you haven't had it "quite" as warm as either it could have been, or you probably think it has - that's all.  

This time, one wonders if that will be a more obviously exemplified...   

One thing I've noticed over the decades of excruciatingly tedious personal observations with the weather ...  about 50% of the time(s) there is often some sort of corrective, directly equal ..or near equal, opposite anomaly ... Just a matter of how long either lasts, but it's like a answer back however immediate or belated.  Cold as Hades' heart for three days...  maybe Friday and Saturday'll go some 20 above climo for high temperatures. The Euro was close to doing so... Then, 6 mean? normal...  Climate comes from somewhere.  I guess if you're a warm enthusiast ... you want it now ...rather than a sucky June. 

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Sat demarcates a pretty coherent frontal boundary slicing east through NY/PA ... it's about 250 miles or so west of the Berk's elevation dam ... It'll be neat if that makes the scene prior to sun down/vis outage ..to test if this rectal glue air mass is actually more powerful than that feature -

I honestly don't care much for 44 F high temperatures in April...  but the high sun offset will make tomorrow like coming out of coma -

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