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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know... 

you know, it seems sort of antithetic to climate for that bulb of cold air to hang precipitously south in the pressure contouring like that, and not have it come rollin' south to Atlantic City, NY ...but the models have been really persistent with that - still doesn't mean they can't be in error, of course.   It's like 'duck', ha

Not that I want below freezing air this time of year, but heck if we are getting the cosmic adult toy regime, might as well get something interesting. But, looks like the classic April cold ass rain enroute. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Technically ... being off 2 or 3 F on a high is a bust.. Oh, we don't call it that... because the significance could not be more trivial - unless the trivial number means the difference between a foot of snow and 1.2" of cold rain; then the fires of busted Hell has no fury!  Heh, it just exposes the subjectivity of it all... 

I love how Weather can be that way... a difference of 2-3F means absolutely nothing 99% of the time, except near the freezing mark.  

Like the summer arguments over 78F or 81F (80s!) is as trivial as it gets.  Not a single human can actually tell the difference in that.  But 31F vs 34F is a huge difference sensibly with precipitation.

3 degrees isn't much but it is when hovering around freezing.  An overnight low of 14F vs 17F?  No one cares.  But man if the models miss by 3 degrees near the feeezing point...look out. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Time sensitive ...but this is amazing looking...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

check out those striations propagating rapidly eastward as they arc from NW to SE thru eastern upstate NY...

They may yet get you some sun even up near mid/central regions as ...whatever that is, it is clearing smartly as it ripples through the flow... Speaking of rippling - tell me that doesn't look like the ring-wake after a stone hits a placid pond.  Some sort of g-wave maybe... not sure...

What causes those hundreds of miles long striations?  Crazy lookin.

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49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What causes those hundreds of miles long striations?  Crazy lookin.

Not entirely sure...   Imaginatively, I wonder if gravity wave phenomenon were involved, pushed along/enhanced by synoptic jet acceleration over top ... It might show up in the soundings over ALB but ...said sounding would have to have been collocated in time with the event - hard to do that...

The phenomenon was truly hauling ass! Surface relative distance between Syracuse NY and Rutland VT ...maybe 150 naut miles?  That's a total guess - don't shoot me :)  ( 220 or so by roads but that's not how wind moves circuitously over land...)  Anywho ... the leading striation covered that distance in 1:45 hours when looping hi res vis imagery.  Quick calculation d=rt yields, 100 mph!  So, if there were some over-top jet max that helped propagate g-wave underneath it's nose, it would need to be moving ~ that quick or faster.   Maybe somewhere between the 500 and 300 sigma levels...

These are spit ball numbers off general spatial observation... I don't know what the air-linear distance between those two locations is, and am willfully too lazy to find out. 

It kind of reminded me of when you're looking at a still water surface over a lake, and a fish doesn't completely breach the surface ...but may swim within a few inches of doing so before submerging deeper again... It pushes similar bands outward along it's trajectory - ...if a slug of wind max were running over 600 mb level ( est where the cloud deck is/was...), it may impose similar gravity waves along that sigma level ...exposed by the cloud pattern being disrupted.

..For the better.  We cleared out nicely for a stint when those striations whipped by and our temp jumped into the low 60s...

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maps like that which often turns to reality is why I hate spring here....we wedge.

I mean Scoots could be right about 30’s wedged down to NYC, but the NAM trending Warmer this close in generally means it’s bowing towards warmer guidance. I don’t expect sun and 70 like today, but I also highly doubt severe cold wedge. Agreed on spring . Worst time of year . Just FF to Mem Day and daily warmth 

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Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes.   Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that -

Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes.   Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that -

Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... 

What # SPF did you rub on your Nape today? If you’re long tossing disc frisbees by river today with lads, you need to take precautions 

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes.   Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that -

Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... 

But what do you know???.....Your met degree pales in comparison to someone who searches the net 24/7 for tweets to support his "views".... 

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26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

But what do you know???.....Your met degree pales in comparison to someone who searches the net 24/7 for tweets to support his "views".... 

If the boundary stops through some prestidigitation of the unknown ... there's a whopper gradient on either side - as there concomitantly would be in early April... Some 30 F easily.

On the FRH grid (NAM) ... BOS (Logan..) is 41 F at 980 MB sigma, at 00z tomorrow evening ...  LGA is 21 C at that same time and level.   980 is like... mid way up the Prudential Tower in altitude...  and later in the evening, it's crashed to 34 ...strong synoptic marker for the direction of the momentum! 

Now, common SNE experience with BD fronts and the interior aspects of Kevin's skull are apparently immune to one another ...but for rest of us outside of his particular brand of trolling with a smile, that usually doesn't end well for warm weather enthusiasts. 

Na...personally I'm drawin' the shades on the 'morrow.   I'll be in a nice environmentally controlled office much of the day, and will scoot from there to the gym...then to night telly...having completely ignored the day entirely... May need to do with Tuesday as well... we'll see

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If anything ... if there's any modicum of Meteorological virtue to science and empirical study therein the intents of the usership ...it'll be a fantastic opportunity for now cast observation of the boundary as it fists it's way southwest. Does it come as a single cold corrective blast?  Or, is there a subtle boundary passage ...then the cold mass lags?  These things come in different form and it's worth it to one's general bastion of knowledge and experience if they actually act interesting in weather once in a while - just sayn'

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