CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know... you know, it seems sort of antithetic to climate for that bulb of cold air to hang precipitously south in the pressure contouring like that, and not have it come rollin' south to Atlantic City, NY ...but the models have been really persistent with that - still doesn't mean they can't be in error, of course. It's like 'duck', ha Not that I want below freezing air this time of year, but heck if we are getting the cosmic adult toy regime, might as well get something interesting. But, looks like the classic April cold ass rain enroute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Technically ... being off 2 or 3 F on a high is a bust.. Oh, we don't call it that... because the significance could not be more trivial - unless the trivial number means the difference between a foot of snow and 1.2" of cold rain; then the fires of busted Hell has no fury! Heh, it just exposes the subjectivity of it all... I love how Weather can be that way... a difference of 2-3F means absolutely nothing 99% of the time, except near the freezing mark. Like the summer arguments over 78F or 81F (80s!) is as trivial as it gets. Not a single human can actually tell the difference in that. But 31F vs 34F is a huge difference sensibly with precipitation. 3 degrees isn't much but it is when hovering around freezing. An overnight low of 14F vs 17F? No one cares. But man if the models miss by 3 degrees near the feeezing point...look out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM is frigid tomorrow for dendrite on north. Cold air drains in and almost always overperforms for me. Will this be cold enough for frozen or a mid 30's cold rain is the question? Will be interesting to see 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Time sensitive ...but this is amazing looking... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined check out those striations propagating rapidly eastward as they arc from NW to SE thru eastern upstate NY... They may yet get you some sun even up near mid/central regions as ...whatever that is, it is clearing smartly as it ripples through the flow... Speaking of rippling - tell me that doesn't look like the ring-wake after a stone hits a placid pond. Some sort of g-wave maybe... not sure... What causes those hundreds of miles long striations? Crazy lookin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What causes those hundreds of miles long striations? Crazy lookin. Not entirely sure... Imaginatively, I wonder if gravity wave phenomenon were involved, pushed along/enhanced by synoptic jet acceleration over top ... It might show up in the soundings over ALB but ...said sounding would have to have been collocated in time with the event - hard to do that... The phenomenon was truly hauling ass! Surface relative distance between Syracuse NY and Rutland VT ...maybe 150 naut miles? That's a total guess - don't shoot me ( 220 or so by roads but that's not how wind moves circuitously over land...) Anywho ... the leading striation covered that distance in 1:45 hours when looping hi res vis imagery. Quick calculation d=rt yields, 100 mph! So, if there were some over-top jet max that helped propagate g-wave underneath it's nose, it would need to be moving ~ that quick or faster. Maybe somewhere between the 500 and 300 sigma levels... These are spit ball numbers off general spatial observation... I don't know what the air-linear distance between those two locations is, and am willfully too lazy to find out. It kind of reminded me of when you're looking at a still water surface over a lake, and a fish doesn't completely breach the surface ...but may swim within a few inches of doing so before submerging deeper again... It pushes similar bands outward along it's trajectory - ...if a slug of wind max were running over 600 mb level ( est where the cloud deck is/was...), it may impose similar gravity waves along that sigma level ...exposed by the cloud pattern being disrupted. ..For the better. We cleared out nicely for a stint when those striations whipped by and our temp jumped into the low 60s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Nam starting to bow towards the torch Euro tomorrow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Enjoy the wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Enjoy the wedge SE ridge is the reason this week won’t be cold . Models underestimated it. As usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SE ridge is the reason this week won’t be cold . Models underestimated it. As usual Pretty much the same pattern and deal all winter..go warmer and you'll be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SE ridge is the reason this week won’t be cold . Models underestimated it. As usual Enjoy your wedge. You aren’t getting warm Monday or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nam starting to bow towards the torch Euro tomorrow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Enjoy your wedge. You aren’t getting warm Monday or Tuesday. Lol. If 50’s tomorrow afternoon is wedged I’ll take it. Euro will win . All those cold week forecasts ftl in all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Maps like that which often turns to reality is why I hate spring here....we wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Looping The 12z nam dewpoints for late tonite and Monday, what a cold dump in E Maine and Nova Scotia that retrograde in a modified fashionto about PSM - Then MHT by 12z Monday w <32 Dews that had NE Maine to Nova Scotia with 10F dews sinking down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maps like that which often turns to reality is why I hate spring here....we wedge. I mean Scoots could be right about 30’s wedged down to NYC, but the NAM trending Warmer this close in generally means it’s bowing towards warmer guidance. I don’t expect sun and 70 like today, but I also highly doubt severe cold wedge. Agreed on spring . Worst time of year . Just FF to Mem Day and daily warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes. Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that - Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes. Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that - Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... What # SPF did you rub on your Nape today? If you’re long tossing disc frisbees by river today with lads, you need to take precautions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Some wedgie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. If 50’s tomorrow afternoon is wedged I’ll take it. Euro will win . All those cold week forecasts ftl in all of SNE Shift that gradient 50 miles southwest. Will have to go to NYC to find 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Looks great here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes. Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that - Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion... But what do you know???.....Your met degree pales in comparison to someone who searches the net 24/7 for tweets to support his "views".... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks great here. Yea, we're porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: But what do you know???.....Your met degree pales in comparison to someone who searches the net 24/7 for tweets to support his "views".... If the boundary stops through some prestidigitation of the unknown ... there's a whopper gradient on either side - as there concomitantly would be in early April... Some 30 F easily. On the FRH grid (NAM) ... BOS (Logan..) is 41 F at 980 MB sigma, at 00z tomorrow evening ... LGA is 21 C at that same time and level. 980 is like... mid way up the Prudential Tower in altitude... and later in the evening, it's crashed to 34 ...strong synoptic marker for the direction of the momentum! Now, common SNE experience with BD fronts and the interior aspects of Kevin's skull are apparently immune to one another ...but for rest of us outside of his particular brand of trolling with a smile, that usually doesn't end well for warm weather enthusiasts. Na...personally I'm drawin' the shades on the 'morrow. I'll be in a nice environmentally controlled office much of the day, and will scoot from there to the gym...then to night telly...having completely ignored the day entirely... May need to do with Tuesday as well... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 If anything ... if there's any modicum of Meteorological virtue to science and empirical study therein the intents of the usership ...it'll be a fantastic opportunity for now cast observation of the boundary as it fists it's way southwest. Does it come as a single cold corrective blast? Or, is there a subtle boundary passage ...then the cold mass lags? These things come in different form and it's worth it to one's general bastion of knowledge and experience if they actually act interesting in weather once in a while - just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 7, 2019 Author Share Posted April 7, 2019 Wow, what a roasting on that long range 12z gfs. Just intense cutter after cutter with warmth and storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Wow, what a roasting on that long range 12z gfs. Just intense cutter after cutter with warmth and storm chances. Yeah Kevin... like this one? Talkin' hammocks and brew time, huh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Euro gone wild. Blue bomb around day 8-10. Snowmobiling on July 4th? No cutter on today's run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Lol at the EURO and FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Euro gone wild. Blue bomb around day 8-10. Snowmobiling on July 4th? No cutter on today's run That was incredible. What a storm on that run lol. Like 36 hours of steady heavy snow. Just massive QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 That was incredible. What a storm on that run lol. Like 36 hours of steady heavy snow. Just massive QPF.Good thing I didn't take snowblower off todaySent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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