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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Well hell...

The Euro and GGEM demonstrate why the NAO is a stochastic beyotch sometimes, huh. This is why that NAO really cannot be trusted. Even in the best of times ... when it just "feels" like the -NAO means verification-business, one is wise to liken it to the Wizard Of Oz.   About equal in magnitude to what the -NAO from just three days ago was suggested, is the epic welshing on the part of those two operational guidance ... particularly the Euro.  Completely just reconstructed the mass field layout ...from implied forcing to synoptic dailies, the entire genetics of the pattern bears no resemblance to the prior dynamic - amazing...

Over the years and decades ...for whatever reason ...the handling of that particular index really does seem to score a distant last when comparing the handling of all teleconnector domain spaces. Earth land and sea, regardless of EPS this, ...GEFs ... nothing really seems to consistently handle that at even 50 % coefficients  

The Euro D8..10 ... zero -NAO...  That, after a week of [ apparently ] faux advertisingthat specific potential ... At apex in the middle it had a handful of block-buster proportioned run cycles, too... In fairness, hints of foundation cracking began day and half worth of runs ago ... Easily sort of dismissed, because the antecedent trend was solid ...so it seemed.  And as the vagaries of the wind... these things can certainly fluctuate.  But now ... blithely, completely destroyed?  Wow.  Abolished like the passion of a capricious-minded 20-year old hot chick... 

In any case ... we still have continuity questions and fairly, can this be trusted either - fair question.  I don't know though...I wonder if the seasonal change and those diabatic hemispheric change arguments are torpedoing the previous plans.

 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man much better next week and beyond. We nape.

I'm floored by the degree of extremeness in that single run change.

Obviously continuity questions are in play ... But it's not just the Euro; the GGEM actually screwed the pooch and left the negotiations too ... although it's welshing on the deal isn't as elaborate.  Haven't even seen the last two cycles of the GFS/GEFs yet ... oh, one can only imagine it doubles down and has a foot of snow next Sunday while the Euro has low 80s with severe thunderstorms in the afternoon -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm floored by the degree of extremeness in that single run change.

Obviously continuity questions are in play ... But it's not just the Euro; the GGEM actually screwed the pooch and left the negotiations too ... although it's welshing on the deal isn't as elaborate.  Haven't even seen the last two cycles of the GFS/GEFs yet ... oh, one can only imagine it doubles down and has a foot of snow next Sunday while the Euro has low 80s with severe thunderstorms in the afternoon -

Seemed like all guidance boosted the negativity of the PNA and then the blocking goes away a bit after late week. I’m all for an anomalous blue bomb if the potential is there, but otherwise I’ll take a mild approach if it’s given. 

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Yeah...while not as obvious ...the GFS did significantly change the handling of the -NAO mass field, as well as the west to east orientation of r-wave construction across middle latitudes during it's late mid range and extended too.  This was also continued with a bit more obvious abandonment in the 06z too -

It remains to be seen if the this new abrupt, hemispheric scaled mode really proves the previous -NAO was all a red-herring or not ... but, we are leery because as opined above, the -NAO has done this ...many times in the past.  Not every times tho -

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seemed like all guidance boosted the negativity of the PNA and then the blocking goes away a bit after late week. I’m all for an anomalous blue bomb if the potential is there, but otherwise I’ll take a mild approach if it’s given. 

Same page ... if we're talking personal druthers...  20" or 80 F ... pick...

hahaha.

But year, ...just anything but 20 days of 39 F gray mist ...or even variations there in -

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Kidding of course ... but yeah... it's not really "warm" down here either ...just sayn'

I wouldn't trust that sagged look of the surface pressure pattern the GFS and company depicted for Monday, either... but suppose somehow that worked out ... it's misty mid 50s.

How about the severe set up from the western Lakes to Missouri on Thursday ?  Not just the pattern change but the threat layout switching gears here...  

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45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At least we get to enjoy a fairly nice early April weekend.  Get out there

Oh yes sir - ...about 7 F away from a 25 mi bike ride... easily doable circa 3pm.  I just don't own the apparel for sub 62 F rides and don't wanna spend the money - these specialty sports are unnecessarily hoity toity with their gear pricing.

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Some times living up here sucks.  So many days of mountain cloudiness.  While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler.  Dividing line many times is around Concord NH.

Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day.  Monday looks awful.  If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Some times living up here sucks.  So many days of mountain cloudiness.  While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler.  Dividing line many times is around Concord NH.

Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day.  Monday looks awful.  If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow

Skiing is great though :)

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27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Some times living up here sucks.  So many days of mountain cloudiness.  While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler.  Dividing line many times is around Concord NH.

Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day.  Monday looks awful.  If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow

Big bombs and blue sky is what they do best.  

Very gloomy up here... cloud level is around 2,500ft.

41/37 OVC026 in the valley.

IMG_2802.PNG

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7 minutes ago, alex said:

Skiing is great though :)

Yea you really need to love the winter to live out there. Not a big distance as the crow flies, but big difference in terms of climo. An approximation I use is 200-250 miles north per every thousand feet in elevation. Bridgewater NH might as well be southern Quebec.

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