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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Maybe I'm wrong and the current FV3 is the start of this transition. Chris always referred to the NGGPS as the future "sorta" 4DVAR for NCEP, but the SIP from NCEP has plans for the FV3 through 2021. So they may be the same thing. MOS is supposed to get the heave-ho though.

https://www.weather.gov/sti/stimodeling_nggps_implementation

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In any case... at least as far as the two-day data set would be concerned, if Saturday (tomorrow) and Sunday indeed cap at 60 to 65 F thru the area (... sun adding to the panache of it, too .. ), with lows still above freezing as presently MOS'ed to do so, one cannot complain about missing out on spring ;) 

Those are early April gem days if that occurs...and actually, would be several degrees of sweeter, too.  

It'll probably go down the following way thru the extended: we find ways to bootleg decent days in between a general mise-en-scene of shit - okay...but 'nape' sun faux warmth is kinda built into our expectation ...or should be, as a savior. And it's sensibly relative, too. If you're say ...on some five-day useless (cuz it's too late to do any winter good) -NAO, butt bang bender by mist and upper 30s ... yadda yadda, and that sixth day where it clears and "soars" to 54 with bright high-ish April sun ... that day gets descriptively oversold.  

Your Nape is going to be so burned Sunday night. 2 days of disc golf and fellas by rivers 

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe I'm wrong and the current FV3 is the start of this transition. Chris always referred to the NGGPS as the future "sorta" 4DVAR for NCEP, but the SIP from NCEP has plans for the FV3 through 2021. So they may be the same thing. MOS is supposed to get the heave-ho though.

https://www.weather.gov/sti/stimodeling_nggps_implementation

So is there not going to be any sort of MOS product...or will there be something similar? 

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OH ... right - of course I had forgotten that the GFSX actually means " ...extending the GFS" - not experimental.   

That concept had escaped me when I first wrote that. 

That said ...I still have never really liked the dimming to  climo aspect of the overall product.  

Interesting that MOS is 86'ing tho - ...I bet you're still going to get an operational outcry for " highs for dummies" type product availability - I wonder if some new version/servicing may follow ...

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH ... right - of course I had forgotten that the GFSX actually means " ...extending the GFS" - not experimental.   

That concept had escaped me when I first wrote that. 

That said ...I still have never really liked the dimming to  climo aspect of the overall product.  

Interesting that MOS is 86'ing tho - ...I bet you're still going to get an operational outcry for " highs for dummies" type product availability - I wonder if some new version servicing may follow ...

I agree...it's horrific. When there are anomalous patterns the best thing to do is toss it out the window. I used to tell people this at school all the time. I guess I can understand why it is geared towards climo...I mean the algorithm has to be somewhat "basic". I also think...though not positive but it may also try to include mixing height? 

Yeah...the rip and readers are going to be screwed without MOS :lol: 

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3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Let's knock 'em down.

Doesn't take much this time of year with a saturated ground, but also the trees are getting heavier as they're sucking up all the water getting ready to bud. top heavy. 

The real test comes as the deciduous trees near full leaf-out.  Then the first strong winds pick out the trees that have had a hard winter - a damaged mast can't handle full canvas.

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52 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The real test comes as the deciduous trees near full leaf-out.  Then the first strong winds pick out the trees that have had a hard winter - a damaged mast can't handle full canvas.

yeah but aren't trees heavier in spring than winter, not because of buds or leaves, but because the wood is "wetter".  The tree is starting to pull water up from the ground so there's more water in the wood, which makes it heavier.  I mean try picking up a freshly cut piece of wood for some that's been seasoned, you know? 

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33 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

yeah but aren't trees heavier in spring than winter, not because of buds or leaves, but because the wood is "wetter".  The tree is starting to pull water up from the ground so there's more water in the wood, which makes it heavier.  I mean try picking up a freshly cut piece of wood for some that's been seasoned, you know? 

That's true, but would have very little effect unless the tree has a serious lean.  Even then, the change in weight is tiny compared to the change in wind resistance.  However, it's not nothing.  Several years ago in late May, a friend and her daughter had just walked past a large silver maple in Farmington when a huge (18" diameter and 40-50 feet long) branch came crashing down.  It was raining lightly with essentially no wind, so the combo of more water within the wood, increasing weight of leaves, and the water coating them due to rain finally overcame whatever strength remained in that winter and time damaged limb.  (Also due to its being a silver maple, weakest of all native maples.)

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Man... phw ... if the GEFs -based teleconnectors parlay into the dailies ... winter never ends.  Without ever having an antecedent act of corrective VEI Volcanism ...the GEFs will single handedly bring about the next "year without a summer" 

Were the EPS -NAO numbers this emphatic ? 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... phw ... if the GEFs -based teleconnectors parlay into the dailies ... wind never ends.  Without ever having an antecedent act of corrective VEI Volcanism ...the GEFs will single handedly bring about the next "year without a summer" 

Were the EPS -NAO numbers this emphatic ? 

The year without a summer part is funny.. I was reading more on that last night.. 

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There are two cyclonic translations ...west to east across the breadth of the U.S. over the next 280 or so hours that are of interest. 

Firstly, it seems there is a differential 'panache' in the forcing and even presentation of the -NAO, where the GEFs are more emphatic than the EPS? 

I don't see the EPS hemispheric scope, nor the actual NAO numbers as those on here covet any free sites and won't share...  I merely infer that because the rare times that I have, the operational Euro does not seem to deviate as much wrt it's ensemble mean, like the GFS sometimes does with its cluster.  So,...making a rough guesstimate that the EPS' -NAO is not as robust/forcing..

Anyway, there can be snow in April ...duh... but, if either of these two systems is going to produce, the NAO will proobably play an important role in that.  

The first of the two systems in the Euro ...forget it... That's trying to warm sector the late week - if perhaps playing right into it's own late mid/extended range tendency to curl systems [ slightly ] toward the left too early.  But, then again...oy, if the NAO is in fact weaker and non-forcing as the Euro, it's Lakes position might be okay. If the GEFs are more correct with the NAO however, that position is likely going to be corrected S.. 

Which is more like the GFS ... The GFS may in fact be a better fit for its own ensemble mean following along with this logic... But that doesn't make the whole cluster right - it could all still be flat wrong about it's more robust -NAO forcing schema it's laying out over the next 10 days to two weeks.  

For spring enthusiasts ...your hopes and dreams are targeting the Euro ... For those that think it's perfectly okay to keep snowing until the Fourth of July and in fact are always on the look out and giddy ... you side with the GFS.  

Re the ladder.. .if the GFS cluster is more right and the storms do end up more south and colder...that could still just be cold rain much to your chagrin.  ... just sayn'. It's gotten late in the year on us -

Personally ...I'd like that. Because it's poetic justice for wanton cold patterns this late - 'cause you can lie all you want, you ain't enjoyin' no 40 F mist laden 33 mph wind gusts this late in the year. 

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... phw ... if the GEFs -based teleconnectors parlay into the dailies ... winter never ends.  Without ever having an antecedent act of corrective VEI Volcanism ...the GEFs will single handedly bring about the next "year without a summer" 

Were the EPS -NAO numbers this emphatic ? 

What the hell does that even translate as in non-weather-geek language?

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25 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Wow that is one ugly look on the 12z runs today. Good thing most of the weather systems have trended north from 5 days out. Send it to Quebec. They need the snow as tops of roofs are still visible in the pictures from that area.

I really don't understand all the complaining and moaning about having days with temps in the 50's and some rain. It's freakin New England in early April. This is very normal for this time of year. Jackets can easily be worn until June some years. As for you in Nova Scotia, this weather is even more normal for early April. What's the all-time record high temp for April there? 80? I hope you weren't expecting anything like that until at least mid-late May.

I don't know. Maybe it's the -NAO that's got everyone worked up about these "horrible" April conditions

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No one's 'moaning and complaining' ...that's over interpreting soft-hearted commiseration and the hyperbole turn of phrases people use... 

I find that when folks come in and do that high-road sort of criticism... they're really self-medicating. They council themselves out of their own anguish by doing that..  allowing them to also mask their own resentment - ..you're not enjoying the two months of spring in a cool biased wet regime, either way... just deal with people having fun with it and let it go -

Or not... there's no rules... just do urself a favor I guess -

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