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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Lol @ having to run a trickle charger for your car at single digits above zero. Get an NNE battery in your car!  If it won’t start at anything above -20 you need a new one!

Lol ya.....single positive digits is nothing.....cars start fine....

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

HRRR p-type radar has a good 3-4 hour burst of snow centered around midnight in the RT 2 and particularly Essex County Mass area as the warm front lifts north and sort of stalls.

 

Let's knock 'em down.

Doesn't take much this time of year with a saturated ground, but also the trees are getting heavier as they're sucking up all the water getting ready to bud. top heavy. 

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23 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Let's knock 'em down.

Doesn't take much this time of year with a saturated ground, but also the trees are getting heavier as they're sucking up all the water getting ready to bud. top heavy. 

The buds or leaves on a tree add virtually nothing to the weight of the tree.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I had a dream we were getting 8-12'' of snow tomorrow. I don't usually get snow dreams :o 

But I did last April too and we had big severe in May so hopefully that's a good sign 

April 6th 1982 pure blizzard conditions.  My current hometown of Plainfield CT (capitol T) was ground zero with 2 feet.

 

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This seems like it's overkill to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for up to 1" if wet snow in the hills of western Mass in April?  

I mean it's not like it's the first snow of the season and this Advisory doesn't even seem close to Advisory snow amounts?  

Up to 1" in 12 hours above 1,000ft is Advisory worthy?!  :lol:.  If so then BOX should've issued another two dozen of these this season.
 
MAZ002-008-009-051615-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.190405T2200Z-190406T1000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
409 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This seems like it's overkill to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for up to 1" if wet snow in the hills of western Mass in April?  

I mean it's not like it's the first snow of the season and this Advisory doesn't even seem close to Advisory snow amounts?  

Up to 1" in 12 hours above 1,000ft is Advisory worthy?!  :lol:.  If so then BOX should've issued another two dozen of these this season.
 

MAZ002-008-009-051615-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.190405T2200Z-190406T1000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
409 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  one inch expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

def could be brief zr out there too .. maybe thats why they issued? but no mention in text hmm 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy , icy late afternoon and night ahead for SNE. Then we Shorts and Nape 70 all weekend 

These are interesting scenarios in mid to late spring, when we go from cool/QPF minoring events to open sky d-slope under marginal 850s... (by marginal in this context, we mean between -3 and +3 C). But doing so in the same diurnal cycle. 

This is the warmer of the range, too... and though the actual d-slope is happening in light winds, it's still katabatic in nature and will add... 

Obviously ... in your example above, ...those end ranges are willful to the point of being immorally exaggerated, unfounded, and just plain clown "trollically" silly ... Still, sufficed it is to say, at half that, there is potential to make example 'same day correction' scenario as is suggested by guidance.

As far as tomorrow ... it really depends however on ceiling timing... I mentioned the gradient is weak ...part of the clearing ability in the d-slope model is that the wind flow is active enough to better maximize compressional heating/ ..whereby evaporating the cloud deck is more activated.  If the wind is too light ..we may have to wait until early afternoon to see real unabated sun splashing... that would dim highs some.  If however, there are other compensating factors and/or said gradient does assist and we clear mid morning... I could see MOS busting 2 to 5F too cool in that look... 

 

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8 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

def could be brief zr out there too .. maybe thats why they issued? but no mention in text hmm 

Yeah there's no mention of it in the text, not even a mention of the Advisory in the AFD.  

Its like an Advisory from South Carolina got mis-placed in the East Slopes of the Berks.    Wet snow up to 1" lol.  Pete/SkiMRG probably finds it insulting that they would issue such a thing for his snowy climate.

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS MOS is suspiciously warm for many northern cities mid-week. IND in particular 

image.png.700d01602b45f5e042e07555809553e9.png

Brian may have some particular insights into what I'm about to conjecture as he's provided useful knowledge on MOS in the past ... buut, the MOS is a database-Climo A.I. 

...It probably considers rudimentary BL physics then ... modulates it more heavily toward climate averages, out in time; such that by the time you get to D4 thru 7 on those outputs, you are increasingly looking at a smoothed/normalized number.

Immediately that questions the intelligence of even using them in my mind... However, I can see some deeper usefulness. If the MOS output is some 10 F over the top or underneath climatology for that date, that may be an indication that whatever is driving that anomaly must be extreme in order to overcome said weighting - and concomitantly ...one might expect that if said synoptics hold, that number would increase as the day in question gets nearer in time in the MOS product. 

Having said all that... I wonder if the "GFSX" being based upon the Parallel run - which I "think" that's what that means? ...- if it's database is still borrowed from the same as the operational version? I could imagine a scenario where it only goes back two or three beta versions worth of verification balancing ... which for that product might only be about 10 year's worth.  Contrasting, the operational GFS has the full 30-year mean...  

I agree ...with the amount of -NAO suppressed westerlies going on ...together with the present tenor in synoptic evolution by the bevy of guidance types through ... mid month, "warmer" MOS numbers don't really fit in general.  Suppose the GFSX indeed only benefits from 10 years, it may not be doing the 'weighting' part of that enough... Just a thought

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian may have some particular insights into what I'm about to conjecture as he's provided useful knowledge on MOS in the past ... buut, the MOS is a database-Climo A.I. 

...It probably considers rudimentary BL physics then ... modulates it more heavily toward climate averages, out in time; such that by the time you get to D4 thru 7 on those outputs, you are increasingly looking at a smoothed/normalized number.

Immediately that questions the intelligence of even using them in my mind... However, I can see some deeper usefulness. If the MOS output is some 10 F over the top or underneath climatology for that date, that may be an indication that whatever is driving that anomaly must be extreme in order to overcome said weighting - and concomitantly ...one might expect that if said synoptics hold, that number would increase as the day in question gets nearer in time in the MOS product. 

Having said all that... I wonder if the "GFSX" being based upon the Parallel run - which I "think" that's what that means? ...- if it's database is still borrowed from the same as the operational version? I could imagine a scenario where it only goes back two or three beta versions worth of verification balancing ... which for that product might only be about 10 year's worth.  Contrasting, the operational GFS has the full 30-year mean...  

I agree ...with the amount of -NAO suppressed westerlies going on ...together with the present tenor in synoptic evolution by the bevy of guidance types through ... mid month, "warmer" MOS numbers don't really fit in general.  Suppose the GFSX indeed only benefits from 10 years, it may not be doing the 'weighting' part of that enough... Just a thought

 

GFSX is just the "extended" GFS MOS...i.e. the former MEX. I don't think it's anything related to the parallel and if I recall correctly, I think MOS is getting canned when the GFS/NAM are terminated in favor of that new NCEP model coming out in the next couple years.

I don't see what's wrong with those temps anyway. For some reason we're talking Indianapolis here. They'll be around +10C to start the week with no backdoor shenanigans down there.

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In any case... at least as far as the two-day data set would be concerned, if Saturday (tomorrow) and Sunday indeed cap at 60 to 65 F thru the area (... sun adding to the panache of it, too .. ), with lows still above freezing as presently MOS'ed to do so, one cannot complain about missing out on spring ;) 

Those are early April gem days if that occurs...and actually, would be several degrees of sweeter, too.  

It'll probably go down the following way thru the extended: we find ways to bootleg decent days in between a general mise-en-scene of shit - okay...but 'nape' sun faux warmth is kinda built into our expectation ...or should be, as a savior. And it's sensibly relative, too. If you're say ...on some five-day useless (cuz it's too late to do any winter good) -NAO, butt bang bender by mist and upper 30s ... yadda yadda, and that sixth day where it clears and "soars" to 54 with bright high-ish April sun ... that day gets descriptively oversold.  

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian may have some particular insights into what I'm about to conjecture as he's provided useful knowledge on MOS in the past ... buut, the MOS is a database-Climo A.I. 

...It probably considers rudimentary BL physics then ... modulates it more heavily toward climate averages, out in time; such that by the time you get to D4 thru 7 on those outputs, you are increasingly looking at a smoothed/normalized number.

Immediately that questions the intelligence of even using them in my mind... However, I can see some deeper usefulness. If the MOS output is some 10 F over the top or underneath climatology for that date, that may be an indication that whatever is driving that anomaly must be extreme in order to overcome said weighting - and concomitantly ...one might expect that if said synoptics hold, that number would increase as the day in question gets nearer in time in the MOS product. 

Having said all that... I wonder if the "GFSX" being based upon the Parallel run - which I "think" that's what that means? ...- if it's database is still borrowed from the same as the operational version? I could imagine a scenario where it only goes back two or three beta versions worth of verification balancing ... which for that product might only be about 10 year's worth.  Contrasting, the operational GFS has the full 30-year mean...  

I agree ...with the amount of -NAO suppressed westerlies going on ...together with the present tenor in synoptic evolution by the bevy of guidance types through ... mid month, "warmer" MOS numbers don't really fit in general.  Suppose the GFSX indeed only benefits from 10 years, it may not be doing the 'weighting' part of that enough... Just a thought

 

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

GFSX is just the "extended" GFS MOS...i.e. the former MEX. I don't think it's anything related to the parallel and if I recall correctly, I think MOS is getting canned when the GFS/NAM are terminated in favor of that new NCEP model coming out in the next couple years.

I don't see what's wrong with those temps anyway. For some reason we're talking Indianapolis here. They'll be around +10C to start the week with no backdoor shenanigans down there.

I should have been more clear...talking around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame for them. 

MOS definitely does skew towards climo. What's the new NCEP model? Don't know if I've heard about this or not. 

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