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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

WTF are you talking about??  Holy Sh*t how this has morphed into total BS.  I don't know what anyones forecast is, or was or what the heck you are talking about?  Go back and look at my post.  It's true, and it's nothing about holding anybody to any forecast.  Holy crap how things get twisted and misinterpreted.  

And LC is Larry Cosgrove.

You know, and I know, and we all know what I am talking about.  

I only pick the forecasts that I know will be correct and run with those.  It makes life simpler.  

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9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You know, and I know, and we all know what I am talking about.  

I only pick the forecasts that I know will be correct and run with those.  It makes life simpler.  

I honestly don’t know what you mean in regards to my comment???  But whatever...it doesn’t matter anyway.  Lol.  

 

Moving on...it’s beautiful  out there today, 68 degrees here.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's true for your location JSpin...but is there a time constraint on those numbers? 

I guess I'd try to seperate it out a bit to say 12" in 24 hours or something.  We probably have more 12" storms than I think if expanded to 48 hours or something.  Like if a SWFE drops 6-8" then there's a dry slot for 12-18 hours before the westerly flow kicks in and brings another 4-6" of some sort of mesoscale snow in 24 hours or something...ending up with 12" in 36-48 hours or something.  

I was more trying to compare to what would happen in SNE where a 12" storm would come mostly in one continuous shot.  

Yeah, there aren’t any time constraints on those storms, they’re just totals for each complete synoptic-scale storm cycle (or in some cases mesoscale events), however long that might be.  Honestly, much of the SNE climate is so vastly different from what goes on up here in the mountains that it’s hard to make a comparison in many ways.  The best bet might be to just look at 24-hour daily accumulations for comparisons vs. trying to compare individual storms.

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Last April, I believe it was 4/15 we had that absurdly cold low lvl airmass where it was spitting snow grains mid day with temps in the mid 30s .. IIRC had some zr and pl overnight before it flipped to rain. So yeah GFS is prob on an island on this one, but in a perfect scenario I'm sure its possible for something like the 12z run to verify one day .. 

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21 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Are you referring to Wednesday or Friday? 

hahaa ...  I don't know ironically .. this time... I was just looking at the over all structure of those synoptic charts and the evolution... I okay it's Monday thru the end of the week.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hahaa ...  I don't know ironically .. this time... I was just looking at the over all structure of those synoptic charts and the evolution... I okay it's Monday thru the end of the week.

Tip, although this solution is so extreme it's very hard to believe but what has more merit, something towards the GFS or the Euro solution?

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tip, although this solution is so extreme it's very hard to believe but what has more merit, something towards the GFS or the Euro solution?

Their respective absurdities are about even in my mind.

The Euro looks improper in turning the Lake's system that far N when there is a coincident -NAO block pressing/retrograde through NE Canada ... Plus, there's resisting lower tropospheric anticyclone/+PP strong out over central and eastern/SE Canada too, which only offers more resistance to that early polarward motion.  A S correction is warranted there - but... it's not physically impossible to get that solution to take place, otherwise...the model wouldn't have it.  It's just a matter of balancing these model runs against experience and education ...blah blah...

But the GFS is too extreme to buy a solution that's between 120 and 240 hours ... That overall evolution would worry NORAD/Pentagon of a Nat security risk... jesus.  Half that NAO forcing would be a reasonable correct at this range...

Which, both correct sort of wind up in the same place and low and behold... model blend.

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I think we're looking at an Archembaultian sort of system potential ...but coming from the NAO's weaker correlation model, as opposed to the more dominant PNA loading pattern -

We'll see ... I don't have any truck with being wrong ... and there is the seasonal change thing mucking with wave spacing/ correlations to consider. It's just the way things look to me now.  The Euro sliding that atmospheric island backward into NE Canada was a red flag for me -

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think we're looking at an Archembaultian sort of system potential ...but coming from the NAO's weaker correlation model, as opposed to the more dominant PNA loading pattern -

We'll see ... I don't have any truck with being wrong ... and there is the seasonal change thing mucking with wave spacing/ correlations to consider. It's just the way things look to me now.  The Euro sliding that atmospheric island backward into NE Canada was a red flag for me -

I'm going to delve into this tomorrow night...no real time tonight, but I do buy the NAO. I think it works to our advantage that the seasonal forcing deck has been reshuffled, as the wavelengths shorten with the seasonal transition. This happened in 1997....sucky seasons can let their guard down and forget that they suck when transitioning.

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to delve into this tomorrow night...no real time tonight, but I do buy the NAO. I think it works to our advantage that the seasonal forcing deck has been reshuffled, as the wavelengths shorten with the seasonal transition. This happened in 1997....sucky seasons can let their guard down and forget that they suck when transitioning.

The 00z guidance ... infuriating ( only from an operational/determinism interest ...) tries to play it both ways ... if not consistent with your wavelength talking point. 

The 00z GFS in particular has a strong -NAO look ( albeit slightly less ridging as priors ...still coherent ) and evolution, while oddly .... not suppressing the storm track S of the more typical ORD-BOS latitudes. 

I'm not sure I buy that ...?  Until I saw the Euro doing the same gist - though details notwithstanding... 

It could be wave spacing mucking with the standard correlation packages; yeah... cannot discount that. Tele breakdown is a real deal... But, it could also go the other way.  In January, ...I'd be honking a protracted cryo event ...either by juggernaut or a series of nickle dimes...but definitely a winter expression. It's real tough and low confident in April. 

Just be vigil and let it ride for now ...but be leery of the fact that the -NAO is a fairly robust multi-model sourced signal and therefore ... confidently lurks - i.e., sandwiching the SPV that's pinned across SE Canada and the lower Maritimes with storms still going N of us is something to keep in mind as a correctable synoptic evolution to say the least.  We'll see.. Sufficed it is to say, ...we've seen measurable snow in early May from less obvious retrograde/-NAOs ... 

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5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

GFS backed down significantly from the backdoor front/3 day ice storm of epic proportions. Actually looks rather mild now tues/wed for those outside NNE

It still tries to hit me up here with ZR to RA and the backdoor is stubborn down to the pike. Pike-south is warmer, but congrats on 50s and rain. It also tries to form a little mesolow over E MA. idk...if this was winter we'd be talking about locking in the cold for most of SNE with that. 

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Hedging in favor of backdoors as long as snowcover looks more like late winter than early spring. This week looks meh, but next week sets up with SNE as the battle ground for winter and spring—hopefully that manifests in a big storm out of this BN pattern...

Best chance is Tuesday/Wed imo—quite the Greenland block showing up on GEFS/Ukie around the timing of a strong disturbance...

ED491995-8ED8-4268-936F-BB63DA1CEC7F.png

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It still tries to hit me up here with ZR to RA and the backdoor is stubborn down to the pike. Pike-south is warmer, but congrats on 50s and rain. It also tries to form a little mesolow over E MA. idk...if this was winter we'd be talking about locking in the cold for most of SNE with that. 

 Better than 30s and rain! Not saying there won’t be a door, just saying it appears as though it won’t be as aggressive as the GFS was trying to make it. 

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34 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

 Better than 30s and rain! Not saying there won’t be a door, just saying it appears as though it won’t be as aggressive as the GFS was trying to make it. 

Backdoors with precip generally verify colder than gfs progs. I wish we could just keep it BN and dry. 

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