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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Well ... in the interests of moving on ...

The modeling sense overall is a stench of dogshit if one seeks sustained warmth.  It's hard to separate how much of that is typical dogshit NE spring climo - which no one would either objectively or subjectively attempt to separate dog, shit, and climate, when describing this god-forsaken geographical region of the planet between circa Mar 24 and May 2... 

Having said that, there's still nothing about that look that breaks much in favor of spring/warm weather enthusiast's hopes and dreams ..

Yeah... seems the surer bet is down on this being ( not like we didn't see this coming either ) the 4th consecutive spring where New England suffers the entire planet's only offset cool region relative to the total GW signal ... or even normalcy for that matter. Ha.  It's like we're the atmospheric garbage dump - that's our spring climate.  Comes down to what is being thrown away that given year... oy

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s going to be very angry at his class when he sees snow falling as he points to the chalkboard in mid April. Poor kids.

Mid Napril snow is pretty common here... the odd of getting anything accumulating get lower as we go. Nothing in the pipeline that I am aware of.  If I'm wrong I'm wrong.

I forecast no warning criteria snow in my hood after that early March event and so far that has held.  I'm looking at nothing over 1" for me the rest of the way.

Hoping for no snow days... we had one March 4 .  That brings my last day to June 14.  We take

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12 hours ago, dryslot said:

9.6", 8.1" and two just over 6", That's it,  I can't recall very many years that we did not even have at least one 12" or more storm.

Seems spoiled ;).  Even in Stowe (town) over the past decade it seems like there are more years with less than 1 storm of 12" than there are with more than 12".

I mean 3-4 warning events was a really good winter between 2013-2017.  

I think BTV went almost two full years without a 6"+ warning event in there...it's funny to hear folks talk about season's with only 3-4 warning events as meh like warnings should be handed out like candy.  

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Seems spoiled ;).  Even in Stowe (town) over the past decade it seems like there are more years with less than 1 storm of 12" than there are with more than 12".  

I mean 3-4 warning events was a really good winter between 2013-2017.  

I think BTV went almost two full years without a 6"+ warning event in there...it's funny to hear folks talk about season's with only 3-4 warning events as meh like warnings should be handed out like candy.  

We live in a different world here then over there lol, We have to rely on over runners or coastal lows for snow, There is no upslope magic in these parts, But we have had some good ole Nor easters except they have been pretty much nonexistent this winter of the snow variety.

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Just now, dryslot said:

We live in a different world here then over there lol, We have to rely on over runners or coastal lows for snow, There is no upslope magic in these parts, But we have had some good ole Nor easters except they have been pretty much nonexistent this winter of the snow variety.

Yeah the climate differences are noticeable in these discussions, ha.  We can get 100"+ and have 2-3 legit warning storms lol.  The rest of it is SWFE and days and days of snow type patterns.  

This season though seemed to have the most QPF rich snwstorms I can remember in quite a while.

But heck, even in the bad winters SNE gets 12+ events (see this winter and 2015-16)...both of those years had at least one storm with a 12+ band running through CT/RI/MA despite lots of frustrations throughout the winter.  

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12 inchers are not supposed to be common from dryslot to here. It’s been different times of late. 

Nothing in dbbl digits this year, Usually a SWFE will yield a 10" storm, Not this season, Lot of nickels and dimes.

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33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12 inchers are not supposed to be common from dryslot to here. It’s been different times of late. 

I figure Dryslot might be more prone to them than you but yeah the past decade might start showing some bias.  Applies up here too as we have to remember that yes we do get big storms and do get snowy winters relative to elsewhere from time to time... and a year like this season shouldn't be as surprising as it seemed.  

Still the 12+ frequency winner in New England has to be like the I-84 corridor over into BOS area.  Even the winters everyone thinks of as shit seem to bring at least one healthy snowstorm of 12+ max axis.

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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seems spoiled ;).  Even in Stowe (town) over the past decade it seems like there are more years with less than 1 storm of 12" than there are with more than 12".

I mean 3-4 warning events was a really good winter between 2013-2017.  

I think BTV went almost two full years without a 6"+ warning event in there...it's funny to hear folks talk about season's with only 3-4 warning events as meh like warnings should be handed out like candy.  

Since I began tracking WSWs for my area (winter 06-07) we've had warnings posted 74 times, or an average of 5.7/winter.  2018-19 has had 6, the most common number.  Most was 9 in 14-15, least was 2 the next year.  Of the 74, 38 (51%) have verified in the forecast range - I use the latest GYX range prior to the storm commencing, always within 12 hours, sometimes with a few flakes already in the air.  Nine have overperformed the range, 27 underperformed.  18-19 has 2 in the range and 4 under it.  Only 3 events have reached the 7" threshold for warning criteria.  This in a winter with total snowfall nearly a foot above average.  It's the year of P-type issues and tiny flakes.  (And long-duration snow cover.)

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I figure Dryslot might be more prone to them than you but yeah the past decade might start showing some bias.  Applies up here too as we have to remember that yes we do get big storms and do get snowy winters relative to elsewhere from time to time... and a year like this season shouldn't be as surprising as it seemed.  

Still the 12+ frequency winner in New England has to be like the I-84 corridor over into BOS area.  Even the winters everyone thinks of as shit seem to bring at least one healthy snowstorm of 12+ max axis.

I still refer to the old BOX climo for SNE. I put dryslot in there with ORH for climo on 6-12"+ storms. ORH averaged a 12" storm once every 2 years.

Snowstorm Climatology

Average number of snowstorms per season (1952-53 through 1991-92)

     Storm Size/1"-2.9"   3"-5.9"   6" plus   Total
Location
Boston		6.08      2.85      1.40      10.33
Worcester	9.23      4.60      2.35      16.18
Providence	6.03      2.63      1.23       9.88
Hartford	6.90      3.40      1.60      11.90
 

Chance per year of at least 1 snowfall amounting to 12 inches
or more: Based on data from 1953 to 1992.

Boston     33%
Worcester  55%
Providence 20%
Hartford   25%
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The "Bookend" storms were the ones here....Close to 9" on November 15th, and 11.5" on March 4th.  The whole winter was 1-3/2-4 and Ice....Very forgettable Winter for sure.  

Ready for some decent weather...today so far is very nice here, sunny and no wind as of yet and 56 degrees at the moment, that's a nice day, we take!!

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The "Bookend" storms were the ones here....Close to 9" on November 15th, and 11.5" on March 4th.  The whole winter was 1-3/2-4 and Ice....Very forgettable Winter for sure.  

Ready for some decent weather...today so far is very nice here, sunny and no wind as of yet and 56 degrees at the moment, that's a nice day, we take!!

same here-very little snow during Met winter-mostly an inch then washed away by rain....

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54 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seems spoiled ;).  Even in Stowe (town) over the past decade it seems like there are more years with less than 1 storm of 12" than there are with more than 12".

I mean 3-4 warning events was a really good winter between 2013-2017.  

Things are probably a touch leaner right in the town of Stowe vs. my site, but the average number of 12”+ storms for us is right around 3 per season.  So in my data, the leanest stretch for 12”+ storms was 2011-20122015-2016, similar to that stretch you mentioned above.  Probably not coincidentally, those five seasons in there marked the notable stretch of below average snowfall we had around here.  We seem to be making up for it over the past three seasons though, with an average or above average number of 12”+ storms.

03APR19A.jpg

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49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The "Bookend" storms were the ones here....Close to 9" on November 15th, and 11.5" on March 4th.  The whole winter was 1-3/2-4 and Ice....Very forgettable Winter for sure.  

Ready for some decent weather...today so far is very nice here, sunny and no wind as of yet and 56 degrees at the moment, that's a nice day, we take!!

Depends on what one consider's 'decent' per their particular liking...  

otherwise, you ain't gettin' that for a long long time -

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