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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Radar looks better than modeled in the SE. I think it’s reasonable to lean in favor of a west trend inside 24 hrs, with this being more of a nowcast than usual—similar trend to 3/20/2019. The quasi-subtropical nature of this early on should  help fuel LHR, UL downstream ridging and faster surface pressure falls. This was partly reflected on the euro and 0z Ukie, but will likely be playing catch up all day if the radar continues to over-perform like this.

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mm yeah at this point?  

you go with big UVM off-shore with grazing terminus banding arcing over eastern sections ... and let the chips fall where they may - 

cape sticking out there as it does gets clipped by deeper UVM but i'm admittedly less certain of their climo for this sort of fast moving graze-job when the ssts are near seasonal nadir -

as to ptype elsewhere...it's still early enough in the year that when combining 850's < 0C ...  i feel confident we can get more silver car top accumulation even from lighter fall rates. *if this thing's ballast occurs in that 4 to 11 z window... obviously heavier more, lighter less.  

gardening interests in the east ...look on the bright side...  late snow (even slush) when the grounds thawed deposits nitrogen fixing ... 

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26 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

What's with your fetish for tree destruction.?

Lol...I'm gonna say he just likes exciting weather, and let's be frank, Wind can be exciting if it materializes.  Problem is, most times it almost always falls short of anything impressive for inland areas, and this will most likely be no exception.  I'll expect Meh for now on the winds for tomorrow afternoon and evening like a most always.  

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol...I'm gonna say he just likes exciting weather, and let's be frank, Wind can be exciting if it materializes.  Problem is, most times it almost always falls short of anything impressive for inland areas, and this will most likely be no exception.  I'll expect Meh for now on the winds for tomorrow afternoon and evening like a most always.  

The wind and 2-4" of snow overnight should be exciting.

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