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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, #NoPoles said:

No big storms yet in Nasville. Though I think I read the peak for the area is June-ish??? I am absolutely terrified of the though of my car getting annihilated by hail. Also, I have no idea how strong the storms can get down here...

Most of us are jealous of the damage you will be witnessing, along with the incoming consistent HHH. congrats.

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8 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

No big storms yet in Nasville. Though I think I read the peak for the area is June-ish??? I am absolutely terrified of the thought of my car getting annihilated by hail. Also, I have no idea how strong the storms can get down here...

It's a little bit of a split climatology, your tornado/hail events are mostly in the early part of severe season (late winter/early spring) and wind events become more common around June through the rest of the summer. 

You definitely have a better shot that SNE for large hail, but the monster stuff is still way more likely well to your west. I'll just say that storms that typically bring a warning in SNE will more often be unwarned where you are now.

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Mm... just too much longitudinal component to the flow ... probably [ in part at least.. ] owing to the fact that we have this interesting problem that has emerged in cold season climate, where any time a storm can develop, the fertile baroclinicity is saturated with wind velocity outside of S/W (ambient field) ... i.e, too much gradient. 

But that may or may not be all of the neggie interference with this thing in keeping it's W-E so stretched - I mean ...that can happen in the 1880's too. 

Long of the short... if there was just a subtle amount less of that W-E component, we'd be talking more certainly about a 06z NAM like solution - but one because the low actually makes more of a coastal pass as opposed to a clip job/overzealous ballooning of the CCB head such as the NAM.   If somehow through the [ apparent ] prestidigitation of wind vagaries this thing can indeed curl N more ... that's obviously cold enough to flip things down to 1,000 feet if not the whole column ... marginal but enough.

But ... here in reality ... all the mechanical wave space associated with this mid-weeks lower M/A cyclone have been squarely on board over land, ...inside the denser/physical sounding domain.. . across a few cycles at this point. I personally, unless there are gaps and or unexplained initialization problems inside said grids, not sure where we are going to get a NW correction from...  Hm, I suppose, if there is a convective burst leading the cyclogenesis phasing ... maybe in some Sci-Fi sense we can lop some diabatic flux into the west Atlantic heights, and kick some resistance to eastward escape from that, which admittedly has been seen to do so in the past.  Unsure though..

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54 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

I only care bc I plan on going to Vermont next Thursday, I’m in Utah until Tuesday night anyway and enjoying copious amounts of snow. All I asked for is clarification d-bag.

There wasn't anything to clarify...

You're evasive when you are wrong - you don't read very well...

Enjoy your mediocrity and have a nice day

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