April Discussion

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Getting one last burst of sleet and freezing rain. 31.1°

We’ve got some icicles hanging from the power lines.

 That’s insane. But hey if you’re going to get such man cold for this time of year, may as well do it right. 

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Mrs Dews?

Luv ya, sweetie pie.

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like another A-grade wx weekend incoming. Great timing and thankfully it is weekdays mucked up with the cold and raw.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

41.5F here in Enfield and 80F in Queens, NY.

15 minute drive from here to Danbury, 53 here, 70+ in Danbury...guess where that front is?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah snow for you guys as well. I’ll tell you what, if that were to happen, this is getting close to April ‘87 hydro redux. Hope the melt is slow.

We're already a week later than the 1987 flood here.  Of course, that needed a 4-7" warm rain to make it really special.

Surgery in WVL successful, as was the round trip.  Leaving there, had S+ and car thermos reading 28, and daughter in SNJ reported 79 with a scramble for summer clothes for those kids having grown out of  last year's.  About 3" at home with little falling and not all that much upstream.  Unless there's a new burst to the west, we won't approach the 5-9" range forecast.  Needs about another 1/2" to crack April's top 10 snows in 21 years here.

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Exactly what it should be in April ... have a nice month   

I'd rather the have the 41F

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We're already a week later than the 1987 flood here.  Of course, that needed a 4-7" warm rain to make it really special.

Surgery in WVL successful, as was the round trip.  Leaving there, had S+ and car thermos reading 28, and daughter in SNJ reported 79 with a scramble for summer clothes for those kids having grown out of  last year's.  About 3" at home with little falling and not all that much upstream.  Unless there's a new burst to the west, we won't approach the 5-9" range forecast.  Needs about another 1/2" to crack April's top 10 snows in 21 years here.

Glad the surgery went well. If not tonight you’ll crack that tomorrow.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If that day 8 Euro solution were just a wee bit further south en masse ... April 1 1997 might not be a totally unreasonable analog -

 

The only trouble is... "day 8"

It is day 8, But models have had this storm now for several runs of various degrees, We shall see if it remains on them over the next few days before taken more seriously.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 That’s insane. But hey if you’re going to get such man cold for this time of year, may as well do it right. 

179 days and counting since I've had a temp >60F.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We're already a week later than the 1987 flood here.  Of course, that needed a 4-7" warm rain to make it really special.

Surgery in WVL successful, as was the round trip.  Leaving there, had S+ and car thermos reading 28, and daughter in SNJ reported 79 with a scramble for summer clothes for those kids having grown out of  last year's.  About 3" at home with little falling and not all that much upstream.  Unless there's a new burst to the west, we won't approach the 5-9" range forecast.  Needs about another 1/2" to crack April's top 10 snows in 21 years here.

Glad you made out well Tom, We finished here with 3.5" in round one, Temps never made it past 30°F here,  Maybe another 1-2" tomorrow night, We shall see.

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad the surgery went well. If not tonight you’ll crack that tomorrow.

Too bad we weren't lumping the totals in the forecast...

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We're already a week later than the 1987 flood here.  Of course, that needed a 4-7" warm rain to make it really special.

Surgery in WVL successful, as was the round trip.  Leaving there, had S+ and car thermos reading 28, and daughter in SNJ reported 79 with a scramble for summer clothes for those kids having grown out of  last year's.  About 3" at home with little falling and not all that much upstream.  Unless there's a new burst to the west, we won't approach the 5-9" range forecast.  Needs about another 1/2" to crack April's top 10 snows in 21 years here.

Glad everything went well.

Probably selective memory but it always seems like you are posting how you didn't hit the GYX forecast, ha.  Seems like a very common occurance to over-predict your location.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Too bad we weren't lumping the totals in the forecast...

Ha ha, oops.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Glad everything went well.

Probably selective memory but it always seems like you are posting how you didn't hit the GYX forecast, ha.  Seems like a very common occurance to over-predict your location.

He is in a tough spot though. Edge of the foothills, models love to be too cold there (especially aloft). It's easy to keep it below freezing at the surface, but easier to mix or get poor ratios than you think. But nobody is in a tougher spot than @alex. We just can't capture the terrain changes with our resolution.

[Damage In Tolland]

39.6 and mist/ heavy fog.NAM!!

[Brian5671]

temps falling here after hitting a high of 68 earlier-down to 61

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

39.6 and mist/ heavy fog.NAM!!

It was a nice afternoon in Fairfield Co, but even that's heading in the wrong direction now. The front is slipping back south as the low pops near the Cape.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

179 days and counting since I've had a temp >60F.

The land where warm fronts come

to die.

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

He is in a tough spot though. Edge of the foothills, models love to be too cold there (especially aloft). It's easy to keep it below freezing at the surface, but easier to mix or get poor ratios than you think. But nobody is in a tougher spot than @alex. We just can't capture the terrain changes with our resolution.

Haha didn't mean to be firing at ya.  It's just something you hear so often from Tamarack...coming up short.  

It is an interesting case study in his area as it does seem like his stats show a high snowfall bias.  Sounds like you'd say it's more ratio driven rather than QPF fails?  I know he also tends to post how models over estimate QPF in his area in the day 3 range and then like to cut back as you approach hour zero...is that a result of the foothills fooling the models too?  Any SE flow enhancement is further into the mountains from him?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was a nice afternoon in Fairfield Co, but even that's heading in the wrong direction now. The front is slipping back south as the low pops near the Cape.

Please please can we just FF to Mem Day 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Too bad we weren't lumping the totals in the forecast...

What a sick event there. Man will the CT lakes ever thaw out?  

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Haha didn't mean to be firing at ya.  It's just something you hear so often from Tamarack...coming up short.  

It is an interesting case study in his area as it does seem like his stats show a high snowfall bias.  Sounds like you'd say it's more ratio driven rather than QPF fails?  I know he also tends to post how models over estimate QPF in his area...is that a result of the foothills too?

I mean those are basically the reasons right there. Models have broad high QPF biases in winter (QPF is typically much narrower than models depict) and modeled ratios are pretty routinely poor. Combine the two and it's easy to bust high on a snow forecast. 

I mean I can't argue that GYX has a high snowfall bias, the numbers bear that out season after season. In Eastern Region there are four offices that over a last season (17-18) had observed snow greater than forecast snow (three are in VA, the other DTX). GYX and BOX were pretty far and away the worst offenders for forecast > obs. 

[wxeyeNH]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha didn't mean to be firing at ya.  It's just something you hear so often from Tamarack...coming up short.  

It is an interesting case study in his area as it does seem like his stats show a high snowfall bias.  Sounds like you'd say it's more ratio driven rather than QPF fails?  I know he also tends to post how models over estimate QPF in his area in the day 3 range and then like to cut back as you approach hour zero...is that a result of the foothills fooling the models too?  Any SE flow enhancement is further into the mountains from him?

I'm sure Alex wouldn't mind if I post this old drone flight over his area and the terrain. His house is right below on the river Living right along the Ammonoosuc River with the front range of the Whites right at his house and a mountain just to the north with the Presidentials to the NE.  Maybe the envision of his location helps you guys figure out his microclimate.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl6gshXzpsA  ( This video was made when drones were really new,  I should never have gone that high!)

[weatherwiz]

Bufkit soundings across SD are just filthy. 3-5' per hour rates for sure if this verifies. Would love to be there. Winds will be nuts too

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit soundings across SD are just filthy. 3-5' per hour rates for sure if this verifies. Would love to be there. Winds will be nuts too

 

TROWAL lightning

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is that feeling based on long range ensembles, overall upper level pattern? Just wondering how you can tell. 

Kind of a feeling...but based upon the look of things. Nice ridging has been singled across the southeast at 700mb and we've been seeing quite the impressive plume of very steep lapse rates stretching across a major chunk of the country...looks even more impressive than what you typically see for this time of year. As long as we don't see drastic changes in some things moving through May I think we have a shot 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

TROWAL lightning

I've been following this and started mentioning Friday, but this is going to be quite the impressive system...perhaps just as impressive as the blizzard that happened in March. Going to have very strong synoptic winds too down into TX and (despite questions with moisture return) there should be some decent severe weather...that aspect may be underplayed b/c it may not be a widespread convective deal, but this could result in localized siggy severe. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Temperature holding at 40F. Looks like a sub-freezing night here on Tuesday. NWS has a forecast low of 29F. I wonder when the last sub-freezing night of the Spring season will be?

[dryslot]

-ZR on 4/8

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

-ZR on 4/8

That’s how you do this airmass. Might as well get some fun out of it.