dendrite Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Suns out! Buns out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Well hell... The Euro and GGEM demonstrate why the NAO is a stochastic beyotch sometimes, huh. This is why that NAO really cannot be trusted. Even in the best of times ... when it just "feels" like the -NAO means verification-business, one is wise to liken it to the Wizard Of Oz. About equal in magnitude to what the -NAO from just three days ago was suggested, is the epic welshing on the part of those two operational guidance ... particularly the Euro. Completely just reconstructed the mass field layout ...from implied forcing to synoptic dailies, the entire genetics of the pattern bears no resemblance to the prior dynamic - amazing... Over the years and decades ...for whatever reason ...the handling of that particular index really does seem to score a distant last when comparing the handling of all teleconnector domain spaces. Earth land and sea, regardless of EPS this, ...GEFs ... nothing really seems to consistently handle that at even 50 % coefficients The Euro D8..10 ... zero -NAO... That, after a week of [ apparently ] faux advertisingthat specific potential ... At apex in the middle it had a handful of block-buster proportioned run cycles, too... In fairness, hints of foundation cracking began day and half worth of runs ago ... Easily sort of dismissed, because the antecedent trend was solid ...so it seemed. And as the vagaries of the wind... these things can certainly fluctuate. But now ... blithely, completely destroyed? Wow. Abolished like the passion of a capricious-minded 20-year old hot chick... In any case ... we still have continuity questions and fairly, can this be trusted either - fair question. I don't know though...I wonder if the seasonal change and those diabatic hemispheric change arguments are torpedoing the previous plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Big troughing out west. Finally it saves us after screwing most of this winter. Still may have wedge issues at times early this week, but late week much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Nam is ugly Monday. Yikes at Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Man much better next week and beyond. We nape. I'm floored by the degree of extremeness in that single run change. Obviously continuity questions are in play ... But it's not just the Euro; the GGEM actually screwed the pooch and left the negotiations too ... although it's welshing on the deal isn't as elaborate. Haven't even seen the last two cycles of the GFS/GEFs yet ... oh, one can only imagine it doubles down and has a foot of snow next Sunday while the Euro has low 80s with severe thunderstorms in the afternoon - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm floored by the degree of extremeness in that single run change. Obviously continuity questions are in play ... But it's not just the Euro; the GGEM actually screwed the pooch and left the negotiations too ... although it's welshing on the deal isn't as elaborate. Haven't even seen the last two cycles of the GFS/GEFs yet ... oh, one can only imagine it doubles down and has a foot of snow next Sunday while the Euro has low 80s with severe thunderstorms in the afternoon - Seemed like all guidance boosted the negativity of the PNA and then the blocking goes away a bit after late week. I’m all for an anomalous blue bomb if the potential is there, but otherwise I’ll take a mild approach if it’s given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is ugly Monday. Yikes at Maine. Mid 30s and crap all day here. Even the GFS backs in the 30s during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Yeah...while not as obvious ...the GFS did significantly change the handling of the -NAO mass field, as well as the west to east orientation of r-wave construction across middle latitudes during it's late mid range and extended too. This was also continued with a bit more obvious abandonment in the 06z too - It remains to be seen if the this new abrupt, hemispheric scaled mode really proves the previous -NAO was all a red-herring or not ... but, we are leery because as opined above, the -NAO has done this ...many times in the past. Not every times tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Mid 30s and crap all day here. Even the GFS backs in the 30s during the day. We worry here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We worry here too. Looked like a little tucky attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seemed like all guidance boosted the negativity of the PNA and then the blocking goes away a bit after late week. I’m all for an anomalous blue bomb if the potential is there, but otherwise I’ll take a mild approach if it’s given. Same page ... if we're talking personal druthers... 20" or 80 F ... pick... hahaha. But year, ...just anything but 20 days of 39 F gray mist ...or even variations there in - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 ...Oh, BD in PSM ? New York City is doomed - end of discussion. "Yeah but ..." WRONNNNNNNG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Kidding of course ... but yeah... it's not really "warm" down here either ...just sayn' I wouldn't trust that sagged look of the surface pressure pattern the GFS and company depicted for Monday, either... but suppose somehow that worked out ... it's misty mid 50s. How about the severe set up from the western Lakes to Missouri on Thursday ? Not just the pattern change but the threat layout switching gears here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Oh pleezy weezie with sugar on top .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Yeah... I figure Brian and gang are about 10 years of apocalyptic climate change away from the mean sore-butt axis lifting N of their latitude, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 At least we get to enjoy a fairly nice early April weekend. Get out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We worry here too. We don’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 6, 2019 Author Share Posted April 6, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoth said: Dews muthafukkas! Reunited, heavy dews, we're excited Struck a match to the guidance, torch ignited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: At least we get to enjoy a fairly nice early April weekend. Get out there Oh yes sir - ...about 7 F away from a 25 mi bike ride... easily doable circa 3pm. I just don't own the apparel for sub 62 F rides and don't wanna spend the money - these specialty sports are unnecessarily hoity toity with their gear pricing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We don’t You should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 What a day! Totally beautiful. Can’t wait to see get 80’s and 90’s with high dews daily. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 6, 2019 Author Share Posted April 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a day! Totally beautiful. Can’t wait to see get 80’s and 90’s with high dews daily. Hopefully those 80s are low temperatures like last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 New posters don't start multiple threads either.Yeah, I figure that he's someone's second account from the beginning Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You should 65+ everyday pike south. You were pumped in texts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a day! Totally beautiful. Can’t wait to see get 80’s and 90’s with high dews daily. Move down here if you want that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Awesome day. Might be time to get that first vicious sunburn out of the way. Don't want to blind anyone on the beach come June. My albedo could single handedly lop a few tenths off global temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Some times living up here sucks. So many days of mountain cloudiness. While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler. Dividing line many times is around Concord NH. Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day. Monday looks awful. If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Some times living up here sucks. So many days of mountain cloudiness. While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler. Dividing line many times is around Concord NH. Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day. Monday looks awful. If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow Skiing is great though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Some times living up here sucks. So many days of mountain cloudiness. While it clears out on the coastal plain with downslope off the highlands to the north we stay cloudy and so much cooler. Dividing line many times is around Concord NH. Finally, a few blue patches appearing while 95% of the NE board are enjoying a nice spring day. Monday looks awful. If its going to be in the 30's with cold rain it might as well snow Big bombs and blue sky is what they do best. Very gloomy up here... cloud level is around 2,500ft. 41/37 OVC026 in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, alex said: Skiing is great though Yea you really need to love the winter to live out there. Not a big distance as the crow flies, but big difference in terms of climo. An approximation I use is 200-250 miles north per every thousand feet in elevation. Bridgewater NH might as well be southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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