Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Second nice day in a row here. Sunny and 60F. Waiting on the tree toppling wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS shows no sign of backing down on the climate mocking ice storm from Monday into Wednesday next week... This is going to be just like last year. Tracking winter threats through about mid-month then we flip a switch around the first week of May and then track an EML ejection into our area and a severe wx outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Have to admit ... just as is the illustrated synoptic surface charts couldn't be more perfect for some sort of memorable icing scenario... Big high arming down over eastern Canada ..anchored throughout with a slow moving trough curling up underneath spanning some 72 hours ...sending steady perpetual light to moderate overrunning at times only accentuated by actual waves of lp rippling along a static polar boundary aligned from roughtly BUF to ISP... In January that's the sound of motor fire in wooded neighborhoods, with the smell of wood smoke getting stronger as the lights in households start flicking off.. Don't know about April 10 though... I guess. There's been memorable ice this late... CT and upstate NY comes to mind. The -NAO is diving and that's been pretty persistent in the GEFs camp and this run shows that exertion - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS shows no sign of backing down on the climate mocking ice storm from Monday into Wednesday next week... Starts it at hr 114. Eurp says no though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is going to be just like last year. Tracking winter threats through about mid-month then we flip a switch around the first week of May and then track an EML ejection into our area and a severe wx outbreak. K, ...'cept, I wasn't aware that happened last year Sounds like you're simultaneously hoping while using ... if not creating last year to prove it's possible. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Starts it at hr 114. Eurp says no though oh I know... Euro has no interest - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: K, ...'cept, I wasn't aware that happened last year Sounds like you're simultaneously hoping while using ... if not creating last year to prove it's possible. haha Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 59 minutes ago, tamarack said: Since I began tracking WSWs for my area (winter 06-07) we've had warnings posted 74 times, or an average of 5.7/winter. 2018-19 has had 6, the most common number. Most was 9 in 14-15, least was 2 the next year. Of the 74, 38 (51%) have verified in the forecast range - I use the latest GYX range prior to the storm commencing, always within 12 hours, sometimes with a few flakes already in the air. Nine have overperformed the range, 27 underperformed. 18-19 has 2 in the range and 4 under it. Only 3 events have reached the 7" threshold for warning criteria. This in a winter with total snowfall nearly a foot above average. It's the year of P-type issues and tiny flakes. (And long-duration snow cover.) If you're comparing to frcst range, do you you end up comparing to the low end or high end of range? Anotherwords, if frcst was for 6-10", and you got 7", is that considered "overperfomred" (compared to frcst low side of 6") or underperformed (compared to 10" high side range)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Depends on what one consider's 'decent' per their particular liking... otherwise, you ain't gettin' that for a long long time - Today is just fine there Tippy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Today is just fine there Tippy... yeah it is... it's actually "spring like" - ... I mean, if it were like this every day, it would be the most springiest spring that ever sprung... problem is, there's no persistence. Wasn't kidding earlier .. .we seem to be in a local climate signal for butt-banged springs that began pretty much after that 2012 warm one. Prior to that, we enjoyed about four or so winter relays that were kinder and more willing to turn the page ... Probably, let's face it, not climate-like for NE. But when those springs were not exceptionally warm ... they got "worse" to pleasant as baseline. ...Since 2012 the tendencies have been about opposite in magnitude/cool side. I was just texting within a different social media re this very same subject matter that we've been that way since 2012 ... We'll be average at times, or even sneak a +7 afternoon, but the recidivism to cold over top high patterns overwhelms and seems to be stitched into the fabric of the base-line canvas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Just took a quick look at GFS. The clown maps have ridiculous amounts of frozen up here next week. Ice storms are really rare in April. I don't know how much solar insolation gets through clouds the second week of April but perhaps even sun on dark bark branches might do some melting in well below freezing temps? Just don't know about this stuff. Of course heavy precip from around 5pm to 8am would have no problem accruing on surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 Gorgeous day today, following last nights light sprinkles. 53.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was thinking a sloppy inch...maybe 2" if I got lucky, in my neck o the wilderness... 1000+' ASL in N ORH county usually helps. But alas...that was not to be. Now, lets dry this out and turn to lawns and back doors. Roy has sung his song. Not over for you, something wintry is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 that GFS solution is so absurd .. like a 2-3+ day mixed precip event in mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 southern NH Tuesday morning...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just took a quick look at GFS. The clown maps have ridiculous amounts of frozen up here next week. Ice storms are really rare in April. I don't know how much solar insolation gets through clouds the second week of April but perhaps even sun on dark bark branches might do some melting in well below freezing temps? Just don't know about this stuff. Of course heavy precip from around 5pm to 8am would have no problem accruing on surfaces. Yean again... there are case studies of significant accretion events in April down in CT and also up-NY S. It's question of overcast density and wattage of irradiation - perhaps calculable, too. If diabatic heating potential is dimmed down below some threshold ..it really doesn't matter. Kinda sorta like that age old snow accumulation debate - yes, it can accumulate at anytime of year. It's a matter of blocked insolation factoring - although with snow ...fall rate is an additional variable. With icing, a superior set up combined with a murky dark pal to the air probably ices on exposed surface in July - but ur never gonna see that set up in the first place so can't be tested. As far as April's go ..I've seen snow blowing off a flat roof at 1pm as late as April 13 before - if powdered sugar can happen.. icing can too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not over for you, something wintry is up. That would get me to seasonal average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: that GFS solution is so absurd .. like a 2-3+ day mixed precip event in mid April I know ... and it's been hittin' that sauce for like 10 cycles... It's parallel run doesn't agree, and that one scored a A on the final recently ... pretty much nailing system that all others took their time with... Meanwhile... of the 12 GEF members easily accessible ...about 4 look suspiciously in favor...not a terrible number. I'd hate it... at the same time I'd be fascinated to see that happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That would get me to seasonal average Let's say for a moment the GFS were correct above all others.... still toss that and never post it again - ...useless. If not in general, definitely in a situation such Mon-Wed next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 Hopefully the upcoming ice storm is crippling with long duration outages lasting until our first heat wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Hopefully the upcoming ice storm is crippling with long duration outages lasting until our first heat wave. Realize ur kidding ... least I think ... but, there is no "upcoming ice storm" ... just a GFS model solution just the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: My biggest event was one of those November events....got like a foot, it was sick. But blew our load to early. I only had 8.5" in the 11/15 event. Did you actually get 12"? I had 13.25" for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Realize ur kidding ... least I think ... but, there is no "upcoming ice storm" ... just a GFS model solution just the same The evolution is a little odd. It's a closed off (and rather intense system) over the Great Lakes...and then within the span of 12 hours it completely opens the system up before closing back off just east of ME. Goes from closed off to more of an open wave to closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Something seems really odd looking with that GFS stuff for early next week. Double barrel lows with a crapton of cold out ahead of it in April? Color me skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The evolution is a little odd. It's a closed off (and rather intense system) over the Great Lakes...and then within the span of 12 hours it completely opens the system up before closing back off just east of ME. Goes from closed off to more of an open wave to closed off. Ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The evolution is a little odd. It's a closed off (and rather intense system) over the Great Lakes...and then within the span of 12 hours it completely opens the system up before closing back off just east of ME. Goes from closed off to more of an open wave to closed off. At closer look the Canadian isn't too far off a similar evolution actually... It's just doing it all along an axis some 7 or 8 degrees of latitude farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The evolution is a little odd. It's a closed off (and rather intense system) over the Great Lakes...and then within the span of 12 hours it completely opens the system up before closing back off just east of ME. Goes from closed off to more of an open wave to closed off. Well a piece of the SPV kinda backs in and drops in to phase with it. It's not really the same entity being closed off, opening, and closing back off. It's just a progression of a closed low with another eventually phasing in. Of course it'll change on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: At closer look the Canadian isn't too far off a similar evolution actually... It's just doing it all along an axis some 7 or 8 degrees of latitude farther N. I can see the system opening up...makes sense given the evolution of the upper-level jet, but I'm not so sure about closing it back off with new circulations so quick. Looks like that aspect may be tied into a secondary LLJ max developing off the coast. using cod and the GFS only out to 186 hours, but looks like this could be something where this becomes cut off and we get a horrifically crappy and cold week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Something seems really odd looking with that GFS stuff for early next week. Double barrel lows with a crapton of cold out ahead of it in April? Color me skeptical I think that sentiment is ... or should be, shared by all - yes... But, we have to keep in mind that anomalous ...at times even 'historic' shit happens. I'm sure if they are ever modeled ... they may look easily dispensable. I've often thought about that before ... how, most of the ginormous events that are in the annuls of the "Holy Shit" tomb of all things crazy that have happened in the past haven't not taken place during this post modern era of ever more accurately ... at least "improving" technology. There have been a few ... 1993, 2015 ...etc... but it's still sort of new and the general 'feel' for big event handling isn't really built into the zeitgeist/familiarity on how well the bigger SD events are really seen as a behavior to do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 And the FV3-GFS is completely different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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