Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 8 hours ago, Sn0waddict said: Could make it into the 60s with sunshine. Perfect weather to dry out the cold rain from the morning Typical of spring ... I'm not saying this/that is going to take place .. but it leaps to mind; a cold-ish overnight/early morning sun in a marginal atmosphere ( meaning ... a tick or two above or below 0 at 850 mb...). Yet April sun being high and hot can certainly processes the thicknesses warm by comparison later that same afternoon. I've actually seen an interesting phenomenon ... maybe countable on one hand, where a band of light rain with occasional PL are bouncing off of car tops. Overhead there is an overrunning band of dense cirrus ... sometimes accompanied by virga tendril as though a goodly mass of the fall is actually evaporating ... and the glow in the western horizon overtakes, ... The band moves off and it's 68 F that afternoon in a warm sector. Usually the transition from cool to warm side across the warm frontal slope is a smeared out tortured journey ... but every once in a while you get that unnoticed flop transition - usually the last week of March to the first week or two of April is when that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 06z euro came west a little more. That's getting some better forcing close to places like ORH with elevation. That would definitely increase the chances of accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z euro came west a little more. That's getting some better forcing close to places like ORH with elevation. That would definitely increase the chances of accumulations. Yeah that's basically the analysis I provided Kevin yesterday afternoon... at the time the EPS were also west enough to graze SE zones. At the time ... I said it was probably cat's paws if by day, ... inconsequential car-top aggies by night ... but, it would not take a whole heck of a lot more heavier fall rates to blue things up more than that .. it was that close! I also said that it would take a pretty significant [ unlikely ] adjustment inside of D4 to get anything west of Worcester ... particularly when considering the source scoring and the Euro cluster.. But stranger things have happened. Is this is typical modeling behavior ... It's hard to separate 'real' meaningful adjustments from 'what we want to see.' When the collective observing people are obsessively focused ...ha, doing everything in their power shy of telekinesis to get the storm west ... these subtle adjustments might only 'seem' bigger. But are they? Or are they just normal noise behavior in the models that we usually don't pay attention to because we are inside the bear's cage with room to spare. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah that's basically the analysis I provided Kevin yesterday afternoon... at the time the EPS were also west enough to graze SE zones. At the time ... I said it was probably cat's paws if by day, ... inconsequential car-top aggies by night ... but, it would not take a whole heck of a lot more heavier fall rates to blue things up more than that .. it was that close! I also said that it would take a pretty significant [ unlikely ] adjustment inside of D4 to get anything west of Worcester ... particularly when considering the source scoring and the Euro cluster.. But stranger things have happened. Is this is typical modeling behavior ... It's hard to separate 'real' meaningful adjustments from 'what we want to see. When the collective observing people are obsessively focused ...ha, doing everything in their power shy of telekinesis to get the storm west ... these subtle adjustments might only 'seem' bigger. But are they? Or are they just normal noise behavior in the models that we usually don't pay attention to because we are inside the bear's cage with room to spare. interesting... It's definitely not a big move for a 48 out forecast but since 50 miles matters a lot, we perceive the move as bigger than it is. A 25-30 mile bump has all saying "wow, we're almost there!" I'm still fairly skeptical of much in this system but there's no doubt that if we got one more tick deeper/NW on top of a 06z euro solution, then there would be some shocked folks Wednesday morning when they wake up to plowable mashed potatoes. Given the euro is already near the northwest envelope of current guidance, its more likely we get the SNE spring special of 37-38F and light to moderate rain with a few cat paws...the dogshit that drives our fantasies of leaving the region for two months and returning on Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Heh... several days ago we mentioned that this thing was transitioning ( in the model runs of the moment ... ) away from a meandering climo low over the west Atlantic... to more an acceleration due to partial reconnect with the westerlies... yadda yadda.. It's fascinating how this has changed... There really never was a climo low at all... This was an open wave southern streamer all the way... forced east out of the SW and is in the process of phasing as it comes through, in a flow that is too fast to phase it sooner ...whole thing ends up rocketing by and seriously delivery in the Maritimes... I just wonder if that transition being so gradual distorts/obscures the truth that the model were flat wrong with the climo low and the open wave is more coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 It's a bit of an over-top pattern after that... No real warmth so long as the balance of the surface mass keeps ending up N of our latitude ... I keep seeing these models engineering these variantly sized high pressure regions ... slipping them from western Ontario toward NS like an assembly ... That'll send perpetually wrong air masses relative to the hopes and dreams of the sane - and no snow...so forget any moral victories ... Just like a fist closed around buds ... It's amazing there's even a plant biota around this part of the world ... and the land isn't just some barren semblance to an open tundra for f sake... Anyway, I hate that look - you might have guessed. But, ...I don't ever carry any delusions about April in the first place. The only "nice" days we really get, 90% of the time have to come from faux warmth associated with an accidental drop off in wind while there happens to be a mercy sky-light timed through the melange of strata and/or overrunning clouds. Otherwise, you really really ought to consider a second home abroad if you possess the wherewithal .. Not necessarily another country... per se, but outside this atmospheric equivalence to a cold landfill where the sky pull's it's pick up truck in and dumps it garbage so the party can rage on some place else ... mockingly nearby too.. Just imagine ...being able to flip the bird and go to Vegas for month... a Safari in Africa ... anything other than partly to mostly cloud with 52 F 25 mph breezes for 30 days - in between backdoor fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Heads up 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 A dusting overnight. yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 11 hours ago, Albert A Clipper said: Exactly haha...and now they’re all sooth sayers and can read emotions in text on a weather board. This place is like a big girls high school clique sometimes, love it.... simple questions girls, don’t get your granny panties in a bunch over it. There are no women here, all of the melt dowsns and such are man behavior. It isnt a fluke thing. You all are how men behave. You might as well own it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: There are no women here, all of the melt dowsns and such are man behavior. It isnt a fluke thing. You all are how men behave. You might as well own it. You better be in that kitchen right now girl making breakfast for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Heads up 6z Euro Not far from locking in 3-6”. One more run and we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 EPS going all in on a -NAO mid month is the epitome of this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 April rain and temps in the mid 30's are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 At least wavelengths are shortening a bit. The correlation is still there in spring, but it lessens slowly through the warm season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Yeah we will have warm ups, but that ridge in Greenland is looking rather strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah we will have warm ups, but that ridge in Greenland is looking rather strong. Perfect timing, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we will have warm ups, but that ridge in Greenland is looking rather strong. How come this seems to happen all the time/oftern after the winter when we don't need/care about it anymore? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 NWS has a forecast low of 22F here in Enfield overnight. I wonder if it gets into the teens again like on 3/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 Another tickle or two east and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, White Rain said: Quite the charmer you are! I prefer my tickles to the west. I don't swing that way, sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, White Rain said: Still looks like No big deal, but the NAM and GFS bring more QPF inland then previous runs. 1-3" seems possible. The American guidance is definitely coming west. The bigger question is whether this is just model convergence and the 12z euro will tick east to meet them halfway or if this means we still have a westward trend. If it's the latter, then this could still be a pretty big deal for the interior especially. But if it's the former, then it's probably nothing except maybe some wet flakes with cold rain and perhaps some nuisance accumulations in a few spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Friday is starting to trend snowier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Snowy next 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Friday is starting to trend snowier.. Having said that i imagine it won’t stick much given it’s in the afternoon on April 5th. But if it’s gojng to be stupid cold that day it might as well snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 39F here in Enfield at noon, we take. Looks like some solidly frozen groomer snow today at the resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 39F here in Enfield at noon, we take. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: We toss. I'm good with keeping warmth and humidity away as long as possible. Can't breathe very well with that with MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 That area of uber lift is on all models, but some have it onshore and some offshore. Even FV3 tries to flip to snow in Gulf of Maine. Might have to watch 500mb and 600mb lift. That does sneak inland, but the uber stuff is still modeled offshore. I thought euro was awfully close to a paste job in the typical higher spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'm good with keeping warmth and humidity away as long as possible. Can't breathe very well with that with MS. What's wrong with 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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