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April Discussion


Torch Tiger
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The plunge in the AO over the next few days makes the day 5 disturbance more interesting imo. It increases the chances of phasing with the northern stream...If I can recall, the March 16, 2017 snowstorm and last year’s BN early spring weather coincided with -AO. An ots track looks least likely given the longwave pattern and a -AO, -PNA. Wouldn’t bet against this coming further north/west and more wound up over time. Rain/snow is an entirely different matter this time of year...

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47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah you can see it quite well hovering over the 3-hr intervals. Amplification was also occurring much more rapidly and H5 closed off in a prime location

Yeah, caution flags. It all comes down to dynamics and maturation of the low. A great track could still result in a relative dud so to speak.

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13 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

What a great LR pattern on the 18z gfs. Warmer with dews, maybe some epic flooding to spice things up, too.

Not sure we have the set-up for epic flooding. The snow is gone as far north as Manchester NH and probably to Concord NH.  The rivers in Southern NH are running avg or low for this time of year and have the capacity to take on additional rainfall.  I'm not sure how high the Connecticut river is running.  I would guess any serious flooding would be located in Maine, maybe the Kennebec. 

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I feel like April is going to suck. Seems like there is a high likelihood for numerous cut-offs in the east. Strong ridging developing out west with strong western Atlantic ridging extending into Greenland. Maybe not many severe opportunities in the south except maybe dryline induced convection...which could be on the active side. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Looks like all snow above 1100' and all rain below 900'. Just nuisance snow in between.

Getting to the time of year where we go back to elevation driven for snow just like early season, Not that we can't get any more to sea level, But with a marginal air mass, It becomes much tougher which is fine by me.

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS does have snow in the interior fwiw.

The airmass is still pretty cold initially at the onset but it erodes quickly....I would have some doubt on how quickly it erodes with a deepening system to our southeast.

I'm not going to parse it that closely though at 5.5-6 days out. We'll see what it looks like by tomorrow night. If it's still there and not fish food, then it will be worth dissecting a bit more.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The airmass is still pretty cold initially at the onset but it erodes quickly....I would have some doubt on how quickly it erodes with a deepening system to our southeast.

I'm not going to parse it that closely though at 5.5-6 days out. We'll see what it looks like by tomorrow night. If it's still there and not fish food, then it will be worth dissecting a bit more.

Yep.

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