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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

There was definitely some elevation component to this with some upslope assist along the ridge in eastern Hartford County and western Tolland County. There was some kind of synoptic scale assist too with deformation and what not. 

The echoes didn't move much, I'm wondering if we got a bit of a standing wave there. The inversion did lower down to around 3000 ft by this morning.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

The echoes didn't move much, I'm wondering if we got a bit of a standing wave there. The inversion did lower down to around 3000 ft by this morning.

It probably was. Also had some nice seeder feeder with some omega in the snow growth zone above H7

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7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sounds like a scene from the deep south...no plows and cars off the roads. I would expect better from VT folks. 

VTrans pretty much stops from 12am to 4am from what I've seen in early morning drives to the mountain for work and last night.  

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The echoes didn't move much, I'm wondering if we got a bit of a standing wave there. The inversion did lower down to around 3000 ft by this morning.

The images reminded me of summit cap clouds .... for a reason ;)

I agree there was synoptic assist... but trust me - and I don't mean it if this sounds heavy handed but if this were flat terrain uniform eastern Kansas style, this was a virga exploided strata sky with much less along those ridge spines.

Part of the event-orgasm after-glow mentality has always been a tendency to over-substantiate it ... moreover, to become offended and at times even vitriolic if any other reducing voice of attempted rationalism gets involve.  Haha

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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah I think there were a few things going on there and they just so happened to overlap over Tolland county for an extended period.

I mean if it was straight upslope then the Berkshires/NW CT would have done much better.

That H5 low diving underneath us last night was great. Couple that with plenty of moisture and upslope flow perpendicular to the ridge line it was a perfect storm of sorts.

HREF nailed it. 

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idk...I lean more synoptic than orographic. There was just too much lift and drift below the beam required to get it to Tolland for it to be mostly orographic. If the NE CT hills had the power to create that much lift in the H6-H7 layer Kevin would be pulling upslope frequently. But the bit of upslope certainly helps in many ways...cooler temps, higher RH, a little extra lift, etc.

 

Whatever it was...cool little event down there. I'm enjoying not having to shovel anything this morning. :sun:

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

idk...I lean more synoptic than orographic. There was just too much lift and drift below the beam required to get it to Tolland for it to be mostly orographic. If the NE CT hills had the power to create that much lift in the H6-H7 layer Kevin would be pulling upslope frequently. But the bit of upslope certainly helps in many ways...cooler temps, higher RH, a little extra lift, etc.

 

Whatever it was...cool little event down there. I'm enjoying not having to shovel anything this morning. :sun:

Yeah, I think you're right that synoptics were dominant but definitely some orographic impact in the Tolland Hills. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

idk...I lean more synoptic than orographic. There was just too much lift and drift below the beam required to get it to Tolland for it to be mostly orographic. If the NE CT hills had the power to create that much lift in the H6-H7 layer Kevin would be pulling upslope frequently. But the bit of upslope certainly helps in many ways...cooler temps, higher RH, a little extra lift, etc.

 

Whatever it was...cool little event down there. I'm enjoying not having to shovel anything this morning. :sun:

Pretty big model fail overall for this one.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I lean more synoptic than orographic. There was just too much lift and drift below the beam required to get it to Tolland for it to be mostly orographic. If the NE CT hills had the power to create that much lift in the H6-H7 layer Kevin would be pulling upslope frequently. But the bit of upslope certainly helps in many ways...cooler temps, higher RH, a little extra lift, etc.

 

Whatever it was...cool little event down there. I'm enjoying not having to shovel anything this morning. :sun:

Yeah that looked more synoptic to me.  Not to downplay those elevations but it takes a good terrain ride to straight get warning snows without a good synoptic lift.  Tolland would get A LOT more snow annually if it was mostly orographic.

I mean the meso-models showed that for almost two days on the high Res NAM then the HRRR-X, HRRR, RAP, etc.

I'd more synoptic too.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Synoptic not elevation in CT RI, as we know and thought no surprises when 5 H goes underneath us . 

I think it was both. This is sort of a dumb explanation from me but if it was pure synoptic you probably would have seen that "jackpot" area jump around a bit on the models in the 2 days prior. Instead the mesoscale models literally kept it over the exact same towns... to within the mile. There definitely was something over the Tolland Hills to focus it. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're not this short-sighted... 

You implied it was elevation and typical backside March, you were wrong. Nothing typical about last night, in fact a rare treat for many. If someone can point me to another isolated  Ct March band where 9 inches fell next to 2 inches by mere miles that would be something 

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Just now, CT Rain said:

I think it was both. This is sort of a dumb explanation from me but if it was pure synoptic you probably would have seen that "jackpot" area jump around a bit on the models in the 2 days prior. Instead the mesoscale models literally kept it over the exact same towns... to within the mile. There definitely was something over the Tolland Hills to focus it. 

IDK but it was definitely nailed by modeling.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

IDK but it was definitely nailed by modeling.

Well, yeah. That was my point. If it was only synoptics you would have seen those bands bounce around some. I think there was a reason why everything kept jacking Coventry/Tolland/Hebron etc. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The images reminded me of summit cap clouds .... for a reason ;)

I agree there was synoptic assist... but trust me - and I don't mean it if this sounds heavy handed but if this were flat terrain uniform eastern Kansas style, this was a virga exploided strata sky with much less along those ridge spines.

Part of the event-orgasm after-glow mentality has always been a tendency to over-substantiate it ... moreover, to become offended and at times even vitriolic if any other reducing voice of attempted rationalism gets involve.  Haha

Aside from the psych analysis stuff... you can get standing waves other ways too.  Like the March 2013 snowstorm with that hole over RI was a standing wave from air coming onshore into SE Mass, lifting from speed convergence and coastal front, then down to RI before the wave went back up over CT.

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Coventry Ct  is like 350 feet and got 9 , other areas similar elevation like JC in Columbia Ct  5 to 7 ,so no

All the towns in Tolland county go from 300' to 750'+ depending on the exact location. I'm almost positive there are areas in Coventry above 800', I'm at about 515'. My girlfriend said that Willi had "about the same amount" this morning on her drive to the gym, and Willi is pretty consistently between 250' and 350'. So I dunno lol

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Aside from the psych analysis stuff... you can get standing waves other ways too.  Like the March 2013 snowstorm with that hole over RI was a standing wave from air coming onshore into SE Mass, lifting from speed convergence and coastal front, then down to RI before the wave went back up over CT.

Mr Freud 

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Meh ... I could be wrong guys - cool..

Just sayn' ...when I went on line last night for an update on the status of matters... it looked like the rad returns were mocking the elevations ...either over top or down stream of them by some...  You know, maybe ask why this wasn't more uniformly distributed?  There are clues -.... but, sometimes these images can be misleading. True.

This may be obfuscated some by synoptic assist.   Try to register that I am not saying no to that... ?   But, I don't want to over-substantiate a scenario that I've seen play out a hundred times in the last three decades, when you have this kind of broad vestigial cyclonic flow of cold saturable air running up and over irregular topography.

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11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Well, yeah. That was my point. If it was only synoptics you would have seen those bands bounce around some. I think there was a reason why everything kept jacking Coventry/Tolland/Hebron etc. 

Climo-favored area for jackpotting every storm :lol:

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