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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Nah, it flips back at some point. The question is do we have deep enough moisture for any appreciable accumulation.

Someone at the WFO thinks it will be more moisture according to that updated map, I think that's a little bold.

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6 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Snowing at 1100' but it's not accumulating (sinking air off Sandwich range not helping). Looks like accumulations above about 1200-1500'. Temp's been holding at 33.3.

Mark,  I'm up to 34.4F  Sky is very bright almost can see disk of the sun.  Big parachutes coming down but vis several miles right now.  I don't know when the boundary temps start cooling enough for things to stick again.  Sunsets are so late now surely not expecting anything this PM unless the heavy batch east of Lake Winni can rotate back into the Plymouth area.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Mark,  I'm up to 34.4F  Sky is very bright almost can see disk of the sun.  Big parachutes coming down but vis several miles right now.  I don't know when the boundary temps start cooling enough for things to stick again.  Sunsets are so late now surely not expecting anything this PM unless the heavy batch east of Lake Winni can rotate back into the Plymouth area.

Ccb just missed you to the NE

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

TROWAL_zpsjns5ifdk.png

Here's a good visualization of the TROWAL Mitch was talking about.

Now the TROWAL exists at many levels (it's a trough of warm air aloft after all), sloped on either side, but a good proxy is usually theta-e on the 700 mb surface. You can see the warmer theta-e temps curling cyclonically around the low (warm conveyor should peel off to the east remember). Heavy precip occurs on the west side of this axis, so I overlaid the regional radar to highlight that is in fact occurring.

I forgot TT had the x-section option so I've been playing around with it this morning. Here's your TROWAL slope.

nam3km_2019032212_fh5_xsection_43.54N,72.73W_43.36N,70.05W_FGEN,-Theta-e,-Omega.png

 

A little lift here but way below the DGZ and probably even borderline for nucleation. Get that stronger lift higher up and approaching the DGZ and it's off to the races. That monster omega over Tolland is crosshaired and way up at H5-H6.

nam3km_2019032212_fh5_xsection_41.77N,73.40W_42.23N,70.15W_FGEN,-Theta-e,-Omega.png

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38 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

long time lurker. back to rain in Bridgton, ME. Shawnee peak closed for the day, wonder if it's worth a skin up this afternoon for some turns. Expect it's snowing up top. 

Adding another welcome - good to have someone else from the Maine foothills country.  Now we need some peeps from the Rangeley-Greenville-Jackman orbit.  We used to have some folks from the County, but not in recent years.  :(

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Adding another welcome - good to have someone else from the Maine foothills country.  Now we need some peeps from the Rangeley-Greenville-Jackman orbit.  We used to have some folks from the County, but not in recent years.  :(

Really wish we had some posters for that area, The snow can be prolific up there most years and no one knows unless you snowmobile the region.

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