HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM... very narrow band of mid-level goodies then a lot of orographic snows. Mountains still destroyed but definitely scattered some pasty snows SE of the mountains. If that verifies there will be a lot of shocked people out there, including some on air mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 That’s 10:1 using the ptype snow algorithm. So there’s going to be QPF wasted on some initial rain, catpaws, wet ground, slush etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Kind of pissed I can't see the FRH grid… Kind of a fan of that product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Interesting storm at least. Glad I tuned in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s 10:1 using the ptype snow algorithm. So there’s going to be QPF wasted on some initial rain, catpaws, wet ground, slush etc. Yeah this crap is gonna be like 5 or 6 to 1 I'd think outside of the really high terrain. Only if it comes down legit heavy will it be close to 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s 10:1 using the ptype snow algorithm. So there’s going to be QPF wasted on some initial rain, catpaws, wet ground, slush etc. Yeah true. And looking at SFC temps even on that snowier outlook would suggest a sharp gradient in the 1,000-1,200ft range. Gene could be shoveling 8:1 cake while 700ft is 5:1 slop on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah true. And looking at SFC temps even on that snowier outlook would suggest a sharp gradient in the 1,000-1,200ft range. Gene could be shoveling 8:1 cake while 700ft is 5:1 slop on the grass. Most of this winters systems has had those ratios here.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 Man if there was a good air mass in place. Even at 11am tomorrow it's just cranking on the HRRR in the eastern half of VT and western half of NH and the model doesn't even have one listed station at even 32-33. It's all above 1,000ft and even 1,500ft for anything approaching 32F. By 1-2pm it's more like 2,000ft for freezing levels and the ASOS spots are mid/upper 30s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Gene's not shoveling s..t. This can sit. Sunday's 50f will take care of a lot on pavement. If we get 8" of paste I have no idea how the town will plow my MUD road. Down to 34.7f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Man if there was a good air mass in place. Even at 11am tomorrow it's just cranking on the HRRR in the eastern half of VT and western half of NH and the model doesn't even have one listed station at even 32-33. It's all above 1,000ft and even 1,500ft for anything approaching 32F. I'm 36/32 right now. Not the preferred way to start a snowstorm. You have to get up around 1700ft to find 32-33F and snow north of Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, dendrite said: This. I mean the run isn’t even finished yet. lol Nothing to do with NAM, everything to do with a busted forecast. But who knows maybe we stay rain and minimal slushy half inch on the back side, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 02z HRRR is a good deal further SE with everything from last hour. That's a huge 1 hour shift and everything seems more disjointed. Models can't figure this out. Time for bed. Should be fun overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Down another .5f in last 20 minutes 34.3f in bed with the smartphone waiting for gfs. Darn time change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Lol, GFS is crushing N ORH county up to dendrite (and Berks/S VT of course). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Hill towns west of ASH and MHT look decent on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Would be crushing me too but GFS always seems to have a qpf hole downslope of whites. 33.9/28 Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 GFS total maps don't seem to have much change from 18z. Got a bit better up here for upslope but the mid-level banding is the same as 18z from western Mass into CNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hill towns west of ASH and MHT look decent on gfs GFS has a cross hair sig on the soundings out there...not sure if its right (NAM is a bit lower with the lift...prob because its further west)....but if that type of sounding happened, then you'd see an easy flash to heavy snow. The cross hair sig will help with latent cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Href through tomorrow midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS has a cross hair sig on the soundings out there...not sure if its right (NAM is a bit lower with the lift...prob because its further west)....but if that type of sounding happened, then you'd see an easy flash to heavy snow. The cross hair sig will help with latent cooling. Way out there def. i was thinking literally just west of MHT at like 750’ in bedford /new boston hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Nevermind models anyone check out the radar from Brookhaven NY (Long Island ) wowww is that a meso low wouldn’t mind being in Savoy state forest around 2300’ tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 congrats Adirondacks. Big snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Href through tomorrow midnight. And here’s the 24 hr href snow map ending 12 utc Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Finally into moderate snow and accumulating on all surfaces. Svt 1400’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 That’s an incredible dry slut for Hartford.....lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Euro even colder. We need an observation thread. 31.8F at cabin and snow. 38.0/36 in Lowell with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Fors hits and giggles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Moderate snow continues and closing in on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Rain and about to get dryer slotted. 39.6F 0.24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Guidance is really handling this blob of convective precip, poorly. Will have to watch how the orh hills and monads do for a surprise few inches of paste this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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