Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 You start to wonder if we need to go WSW higher els SNE tomorrow night ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You start to wonder if we need to go WSW higher els SNE tomorrow night ? I wondered this Winter storm weenie warnings flying in Tolland over 900’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Stowe 3k gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I wondered this Winter storm weenie warnings flying in Tolland over 900’ No. That’s not happening. Let’s not go wild here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs looks interesting for Alex and Gene Alex will upslope but Gene is a wild card tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs looks interesting for Alex and Gene Hum, 850mb is colder and looks below freezing for the whole storm. 925mb is pretty warm. It increases qpf in my hood from .3" to .8" Right now I'm at 42.4/28F. Wish dewpoint was lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Albany still has hunter mountain at 3” on their winter weather map. ill go ahead and take the ova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I wondered this Winter storm weenie warnings flying in Tolland over 900’ It’s not out of realm we put down 3-6” of Sapling Snapping paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Hum, 850mb is colder and looks below freezing for the whole storm. 925mb is pretty warm. It increases qpf in my hood from .3" to .8" Right now I'm at 42.4/28F. Wish dewpoint was lower. You may need to go up to the neighbors who are at like 1800’ . I believe that is where gradient may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not out of realm we put down 3-6” of Sapling Snapping paste There is a narrow window and zone for more than 3”. If somehow a real narrow spot gets lucky with 3-4......but that will be tough. That little phenomenon I talked about looked interesting. Sort of where the two s/w’s interact. Might cause a really narrow band of convective precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Hum, 850mb is colder and looks below freezing for the whole storm. 925mb is pretty warm. It increases qpf in my hood from .3" to .8" Right now I'm at 42.4/28F. Wish dewpoint was lower. Actually 925’s cool real nicely on 18z gfs they are good for your hood after 6z tonite and into n mass over to LWM by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You may need to go up to the neighbors who are at like 1800’ . I believe that is where gradient may be I agree. I'm thinking rain and when it comes down hard parachutes mixed in. I think I will sit at 34 or 35F with a mix, trying its hardest to flip but not doing so. With binoculars, I can easily see the tops of the ridges around 2000 feet. With my 3 cams and new VP3 working on my site below you will be able to see exactly what is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Wrf Arw2 gives Kevin like 5” lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Rpm is like 2-3” too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I agree. I'm thinking rain and when it comes down hard parachutes mixed in. I think I will sit at 34 or 35F with a mix, trying its hardest to flip but not doing so. With binoculars, I can easily see the tops of the ridges around 2000 feet. With my 3 cams and new VP3 working on my site below you will be able to see exactly what is happening I believe if this low is able to crank a CCB over your area for a few hours you should cash in given look of 925’s on new gfs. I believe If you see the rates you will see some mashed potato maybe a lil apple sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Rpm is like 2-3” too. Just shows the potential like you guys been talking about . Its real . Where it sets up is the wildcard and the duration I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Alex will upslope but Gene is a wild card tonight. Yeah the GFS tickles 6" contour into ORH hills. Some huge spread on 18z models though still. From like the GFS which has best mid-level banding SE of here in NH to other option of wound up expansive mid-level dry slot while upstate NY gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This will be interesting, I may end up being a half hour hike to where it's accumulating. Literally into the back yard and then walk up the hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rpm is like 2-3” too. In an hour it will give him zero..then in an hour 6”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the GFS tickles 6" contour into ORH hills. Some huge spread on 18z models though still. I am going to sell on higher amounts anywhere in SNE until we see how much this thing cranks up and where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the GFS tickles 6" contour into ORH hills. Some huge spread on 18z models though still. This is a cool now cast . N Catskills seem to be like 4-18 same for Savoy mass to lesser degree mid level banding could be make or break for C/W NY state and over to NH elevations with the dry slot location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 18z RGEM increased snow in SNE to at least 1-3". I wont lie though, this model you can't trust but it's past 6 runs have been pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just shows the potential like you guys been talking about . Its real . Where it sets up is the wildcard and the duration I suppose Well that’s the higher elevations where we knew an inch or two at least could happen. If it’s more than it certainly would over-achieve. The mesoscale wild card and what Will referred to is the interaction of the s/w dumbelling into SNE tomorrow night and the s/w going under us. The idea of a s/w under us helping, has to do with cyclonic flow along with instability. We don’t really have cyclone flow from east, but the interaction produces a shear zone and potentially fronto genesis. This narrow area may produce a weenie band in the lower spots. Otherwise for everyone else it’s nothig special. The idea of this closing off sooner and blowing up like he Canadian a couple of days ago is gone. For lower spots it’s just seeing how mesoscale aspects play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I am going to sell on higher amounts anywhere in SNE until we see how much this thing cranks up and where it tracks. I like the slower N movement w more deepening down south as well as the NE appendage of the LP off of Boston on some of the models at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This airmass is so putrid though. That will take some work to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In an hour it will give him zero..then in an hour 6”... I think it’s legit. I’d say 2-3” greater than 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This airmass is so putrid though. That will take some work to overcome You folks in wrn part of orh hills will benefit from that upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I like the slower N movement w more deepening down south as well as the NE appendage of the LP off of Boston on some of the models at 18z The slower movement will help with the Friday night stuff too even if SNE is out of the game for the front side stuff (sans maybe parts of Berkshires)....because if the sfc low is only up at like Essex county or PSM latitude versus PWM that will enhance the low level conditions for the ULL to produce tomorrow night. More sfc convergence and less westerly flow in the BL. So we def want to root for this to crawl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I don’t know why I have as many posts as I do in here, but the weather is boring AF otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The slower movement will help with the Friday night stuff too even if SNE is out of the game for the front side stuff (sans maybe parts of Berkshires)....because if the sfc low is only up at like Essex county or PSM latitude versus PWM that will enhance the low level conditions for the ULL to produce tomorrow night. More sfc convergence and less westerly flow in the BL. So we def want to root for this to crawl. I was looking at that Great Lakes energy droping into the trough and it slows or almost pulls back the original cut off low back west ...or at least doesn't let it escape east on Friday night. Leads to just a nice ULL and PVA moving under SNE and joining with the first low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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