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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hum,  850mb is colder and looks below freezing for the whole storm.  925mb is pretty warm.  It increases qpf in my hood from .3" to .8"

Right now I'm at 42.4/28F.  Wish dewpoint was lower. 

You may need to go up to the neighbors who are at like 1800’ . I believe that is where gradient may be 

 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not out of realm we put down 3-6” of Sapling Snapping paste 

There is a narrow window and zone for more than 3”.  If somehow a real narrow spot gets lucky with 3-4......but that will be tough. That little phenomenon I talked about looked interesting. Sort of where the two s/w’s interact. Might cause a really narrow band of convective precip.

 

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12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hum,  850mb is colder and looks below freezing for the whole storm.  925mb is pretty warm.  It increases qpf in my hood from .3" to .8"

Right now I'm at 42.4/28F.  Wish dewpoint was lower. 

Actually 925’s cool real nicely on 18z gfs 

they are good for your hood after 6z tonite and into n mass over to LWM by 12z

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You may need to go up to the neighbors who are at like 1800’ . I believe that is where gradient may be 

 

I agree.  I'm thinking rain and when it comes down hard parachutes mixed in.  I think I will sit at 34 or 35F with a mix, trying its hardest to flip but not doing so.  With binoculars, I can easily see the tops of the ridges around 2000 feet.  With my 3 cams and new VP3 working on my site below you will be able to see exactly what is happening

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I agree.  I'm thinking rain and when it comes down hard parachutes mixed in.  I think I will sit at 34 or 35F with a mix, trying its hardest to flip but not doing so.  With binoculars, I can easily see the tops of the ridges around 2000 feet.  With my 3 cams and new VP3 working on my site below you will be able to see exactly what is happening

I believe  if this low is able to crank a CCB over your area for a few hours you should cash in given look of 925’s on new gfs. I believe If you see the rates you will see some mashed potato maybe a lil apple sauce

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Alex will upslope but Gene is a wild card tonight. 

Yeah the GFS tickles 6" contour into ORH hills.  

Some huge spread on 18z models though still.  From like the GFS which has best mid-level banding SE of here in NH to other option of wound up expansive mid-level dry slot while upstate NY gets hammered.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the GFS tickles 6" contour into ORH hills.  

Some huge spread on 18z models though still.  

This is a cool now cast .

N Catskills seem to be like 4-18

same for Savoy mass to lesser degree

mid level banding could be make or break for C/W NY state

and over to NH elevations with the dry slot location 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just shows the potential like you guys been talking about . Its real . Where it sets up is the wildcard and the duration I suppose 

Well that’s the higher elevations where we knew an inch or two at least could happen. If it’s more than it certainly would over-achieve. The mesoscale wild card and what Will referred to is the interaction of the s/w dumbelling into SNE tomorrow night and the s/w going under us. The idea of a s/w under us helping, has to do with cyclonic flow along with instability. We don’t really have cyclone flow from east, but the interaction produces a shear zone and potentially fronto genesis. This narrow area may produce a weenie band in the lower spots. Otherwise for everyone else it’s nothig special. The idea of this closing off sooner and blowing up like he Canadian a couple of days ago is gone. For lower spots it’s just seeing how mesoscale aspects play out. 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like the slower N movement w more deepening down south as well as the NE appendage of the LP off of Boston on some of the models at 18z

The slower movement will help with the Friday night stuff too even if SNE is out of the game for the front side stuff (sans maybe parts of Berkshires)....because if the sfc low is only up at like Essex county or PSM latitude versus PWM that will enhance the low level conditions for the ULL to produce tomorrow night. More sfc convergence and less westerly flow in the BL. 

So we def want to root for this to crawl. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The slower movement will help with the Friday night stuff too even if SNE is out of the game for the front side stuff (sans maybe parts of Berkshires)....because if the sfc low is only up at like Essex county or PSM latitude versus PWM that will enhance the low level conditions for the ULL to produce tomorrow night. More sfc convergence and less westerly flow in the BL. 

So we def want to root for this to crawl. 

I was looking at that Great Lakes energy droping into the trough and it slows or almost pulls back the original cut off low back west ...or at least doesn't let it escape east on Friday night.  Leads to just a nice ULL and PVA moving under SNE and joining with the first low.

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