weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be traversing the region tomorrow and this will help generate a few hundred J of elevated instability. Strong cold front with vorticity approaching along with some pretty strong dynamics. Should have enough forcing, couple with elevated instability for some low topped convection to develop. Highest potential may be SE MA. Given the shear aloft, low-ish freezing levels, and steep mid-level lapse rates can't rule out some strong/damaging wind gusts and small hail with any convection tomorrow. That time of year is getting here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2019 Author Share Posted March 14, 2019 18z looks decent to get just enough updraft oomph for a few lightning strikes. Convective temps should be reached. Several hundred J of elevated CAPE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 This is equivalent to a flurry tracking thread in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is equivalent to a flurry tracking thread in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 The dawn awakening. Rise of the general outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 Steep mid-level lapse rates helping to generate ~250 J/KG of MUCape...even a couple hundred J of CAPE in the -10 to -30C layer. Nice line of heavy showers in central CT. If tops can get a little taller should maybe spit out some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 Getting some peaks of sun here in Branford. May also start seeing some lightning around Moodus area soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 It is raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 Marginal risk creeping farther north each new outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 HRRR has been pretty consistent with developing some heavy rain/thunder across S CT and moving it into RI and SE MA later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Stay safe, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Holy yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Couple of rumbles of thunder with that little cell that popped in SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Fairly frequent CG there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Lots of frequent lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Lots of frequent lightning Ain't that low topped either. 50 dBZ to 20,000 ft is more than enough this time of year for lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 So I get back and now everything is moved north 50 miles from early this morning. Interesting. Hrrr goes wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Lapse rates were modeled steep yesterday. But it seemed like LLJ woukd be South. I guess that changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 SE NE picking up right where it left off last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Will likely be best storm of year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So I get back and now everything is moved north 50 miles from early this morning. Interesting. Hrrr goes wild. The HRRR really develops that stuff off to the southwest as it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 We thunder. We lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ain't that low topped either. 50 dBZ to 20,000 ft is more than enough this time of year for lots of lightning. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Storm is hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lapse rates were modeled steep yesterday. But it seemed like LLJ woukd be South. I guess that changed. Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way Everything moved north. Stuff in Jersey is primed for SNE. I was away all day and this looks north of 12hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Everything moved north. Stuff in Jersey is primed for SNE. I was away all day and this looks north of 12hrs ago. Yeah it certainly is north. Models looked more SE CT, RI, and SE MA. I may even get hit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Radar starting to look fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Radar starting to look fun All the action will be well south of you. We definitely had some of the loudest thunder I have heard in a while this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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