Sydney Claridge Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 I'm surprised SPC went with a severe thunderstorm watch in OH/SE IN/KY rather than a tornado watch, given all of the helicity in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Helicity is absolutely off the charts here currently. If we can really get some instability to build it's going to be showtime 4 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Both the RAP and the HRRR are pointing to the development of a new area of storm development for Indiana and Michigan. On satellite right now there is a large area of zero clouds and we still have about 2 hours left of surface heating. Will be interesting if this develops. I'm torn between being an optimist or throwing in the towel. Full sun here again, rain looks done for now finally. Taking a peek at mesoanalysis: shear and helicity are still screaming, theres a tongue of 1000j/kg SBCAPE and 500j/kg MLCAPE moving east, and there's a lollipop of DLCP sitting over my head. My gut doesn't feel great but at the same time, I cannot deny the ingredients are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 SVR watch vs TOR watch is easy for the area covered by the watch. Very limited instability across the watch area... and by the time the “instability axis” (1000J/KG SBCAPE across Indiana per RAP analysis) reaches the main part of the watch area, diurnal heating will start diminishing. From my POV, the main tornado threat of this event is about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion for Lower Michigan. Severe thunderstorm watch possible. Quote Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing broken line of thunderstorms should continue to pose an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent preceding an upper trough/low has encouraged scatted thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI. Some clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of this ongoing convection. Even though low-level moisture remains limited, the modest heating coupled with some steepening of mid-level lapse rates is supporting MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg across parts of southern Lower MI. Strong effective bulk shear of 50-75+ kt will support organized updrafts, and isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds should continue to be possible as these thunderstorms move eastward over the next couple of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Cell definitely has the look to it. Environment has cleared up really well also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Not sure how there is no SVR warning for Angola, IN as that looks like a mean hailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, nwohweather said: Not sure how there is no SVR warning for Angola, IN as that looks like a mean hailer IWX just ninja'd you on that one. Warning up now. Clicking NE at 55mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, geddyweather said: IWX just ninja'd you on that one. Warning up now. Clicking NE at 55mph. That's the one to watch. Per mesoanalysis it seems as all the CIN is gone with SBCAPE around 1000 and decent lapse rates as well. Honestly just a waiting game at this point but I'm shocked to not see a ton springing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: That's the one to watch. Per mesoanalysis it seems as all the CIN is gone with SBCAPE around 1000 and decent lapse rates as well. Honestly just a waiting game at this point but I'm shocked to not see a ton springing up Noticing some lingering CIN issues as well as more meager forcing as you follow the the cold front south. Lower MI looks like the sweet spot right now. That said, SPC just put up another T-Storm Watch that extends south to Fort Wayne and meets up with the one they issued previously. So we'll see. Not holding my breath however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 First watch of non-winter variety here since August 8th. Feels weird since this is not your typical setup. I am cautiously optimistic, but leaning more towards the cautious side. This line looks like it may peter out before reaching Oakland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Debris ball on the storm about to head north of Flint, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 701 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT. * AT 700 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DURAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Moosey2323 said: Debris ball on the storm about to head north of Flint, MI. The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan... Northwestern Genesee County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 700 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Durand, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 705 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 MIC049-155-142330- /O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190314T2330Z/ SHIAWASSEE MI-GENESEE MI- 705 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHIAWASSEE AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... AT 704 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LENNON, OR NEAR DURAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Moosey2323 said: Debris ball on the storm about to head north of Flint, MI. Uh, I think that may have made a direct hit on Vernon, MI (pop. 783), NW of Durand. HUGE CC drop after passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, CheeselandSkies said: It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough. The TDS and reflectivity on radar with a debris ball definitely supports the extremely dangerous part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 My bad, I hadn't looked at the CC for awhile. Goodness. Still, they should then change the "radar indicated rotation" to "radar confirmed tornado." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 lots of housing subdivisions between Flint and Beecher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: lots of housing subdivisions between Flint and Beecher Probably why they pushed the PDS warning. Not only is the area primarily residential, but it also has a lot of trailer parks, and this tornado won't be easily visible. Yeeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 New tornado warning just southwest of Ann Arbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 now just radar indicated IC049-142330- /O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190314T2330Z/ GENESEE MI- 712 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY... AT 710 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FLUSHING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BEECHER AROUND 720 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Warning near Brooklyn looks to pass through town, lets hope it isn't down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 CC dropping on that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Went back and looked, the CC deficit reached 10000', so that was more than likely a decently strong tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 EF-0 confirmed in Lake county IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Around noon yesterday the temperatures started to sore towards the mid 70's... the sun was breaking out and a line of storms with tornadic cells was building through eastern IN and ready to cross into OH. There was almost no doubt in my mind that we were going to see one heck of a severe outbreak. Amazingly it found a way to fail even though it came through right at the most prime time of the day. Other than about a 15 minute incredibly heavy down pour and a few claps of thunder....that was about it. Clearly weather failures in CMH are not limited to winterstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: Around noon yesterday the temperatures started to sore towards the mid 70's... the sun was breaking out and a line of storms with tornadic cells was building through eastern IN and ready to cross into OH. There was almost no doubt in my mind that we were going to see one heck of a severe outbreak. Amazingly it found a way to fail even though it came through right at the most prime time of the day. Other than about a 15 minute incredibly heavy down pour and a few claps of thunder....that was about it. Clearly weather failures in CMH are not limited to winterstorms. I think Michigan posters suffers the same fate when it comes to severe weather, although they can use the lakes as an excuse. There's no excuse for Ohio. You guys just don't try hard enough!! You know that I'm just being facetious, and I suffered the same fate as you yesterday. Severe storms to both my north and northwest as well as to my south and we ended up in no mans land here with 0.40" of rain and one clap of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Just now, IWXwx said: I think Michigan posters suffers the same fate when it comes to severe weather, although they can use the lakes as an excuse. There's no excuse for Ohio. You guys just don't try hard enough!! You know that I'm just being facetious, and I suffered the same fate as you yesterday. Severe storms to both my north and northwest as well as to my south and we ended up in no mans land here with 0.40" of rain and one clap of thunder. true, but at least they get snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 2 distinct corridors of severe in the sub yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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