janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 EVANSVILLE in 10 min BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1039 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... EAST CENTRAL POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT. * AT 1038 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF CORYDON, OR 9 MILES WEST OF HENDERSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EVANSVILLE AND KASSON AROUND 1050 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Timmer saying it's confirmed as well on Twitter, doing a good job of play by play from blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 SPC not having the best day..back in central IL not even a marginal risk..completely obvious BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1053 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1053 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PONTIAC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGERO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 I had been wondering about the storms over central IL as well. There's plenty of sunshine to get things destabilized there, and its fairly close to the low pressure system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Maybe this will work lol... Tornado Warning ILC105-141615- /O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0001.190314T1553Z-190314T1615Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 1053 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Livingston County in central Illinois... * Until 1115 AM CDT * At 1053 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pontiac, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Odell around 1105 AM CDT. Dwight around 1115 AM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cornell. Including the following interstate... I-55 between mile markers 194 and 218. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Well, Janet, you were correct regarding your earlier concern for IL and nw IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: also I'm surprised there isn't a mention over central IL to NW IND for a secondary area MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL...NORTHWEST IN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141554Z - 141730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. A TORNADO RISK WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE TORNADO RISK PERHAPS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST IN AS OF 1030AM CDT. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL IL. THE 12Z LINCOLN, IL RAOB SHOWED A VERY COLD 500MB TEMPERATURE (-21.7 DEG C) WITH AN 8 DEGREE C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATE, IT APPEARS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG TO EXTREME SHEAR PROFILE COUPLED WITH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE, IT APPEARS TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND AN UPGRADE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE UPCOMING 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IF ROBUST SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS IN FACT DEVELOP, A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE US51/I-39 CORRIDOR IN EAST-CENTRAL AND INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTERNOON. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 03/14/2019 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40189017 40859029 41988818 41828747 41108709 39318962 40189017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Wow, supercells all over heading into very healthy shear...even down to N. MS they are getting that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 KPAH been busy they were averaging a sev/tor warning every 7 or 8 min between 8 and 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: KPAH been busy they were averaging a sev/tor warning every 7 or 8 min between 8 and 10:30 Yeah, those tornadic cells have been really training over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Wow... And the hail threat was “low.” Also concerned about sunshine along the Ohio river with a developing CU field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Eagerly anticipating the 1630Z SPC convective outlook. Some changes are bound to be made, especially for central and NE IL, plus NW IN, given the storms in that area. Not to mention that clearing along the Ohio River is bound to introduce some issues down the line for Louisville and Cincinnati as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Eagerly anticipating the 1630Z SPC convective outlook. Some changes are bound to be made, especially for central and NE IL, plus NW IN, given the storms in that area. Not to mention that clearing along the Ohio River is bound to introduce some issues down the line for Louisville and Cincinnati as well. Latest HRRR is handling the clearing well. Oddly, it doesnt destabilize much though. ~500 cape. Obviously enough for today, but I would have thought clearing would push to 750+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Eagerly anticipating the 1630Z SPC convective outlook. Some changes are bound to be made, especially for central and NE IL, plus NW IN, given the storms in that area. Not to mention that clearing along the Ohio River is bound to introduce some issues down the line for Louisville and Cincinnati as well. Yep, I'd say an upgrade to MDT is warranted along the OH River Valley; probably a slight deeper west into Chicago as well. Hi-res guidance is killing off those cells in western KY, which doesn't make a lot of sense given the clearing, moisture advection, wind fields, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 These storms will not be sheared apart, that was the worry, it's game on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN IL AND VICINITY...AND THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..TN VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTERN NE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER IA/WI/UPPER MI BY THIS EVENING, AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET STREAK EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM MO TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME DESTABILIZATION AS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN TOWARD OH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 70-80 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-600 M2/S2. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH RIVER AS OF LATE MORNING, AND SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SLOWED BY THE MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS, SO MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AS WILL THE MODE OF INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT (NOT STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT). THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE HIGH END FOR THE MODEST BUOYANCY, BUT IT APPEARS THE COMBINATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCED ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AS THE STORMS ARE ROUGHLY PACED BY THE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN AL. THOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES GIVEN SOME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN IL TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL SURGE/DRY SLOT NEAR AND NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS AS OF MID MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING NORTHWARD ACROSS IL WITH SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING GUSTS, AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CONVECTION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS MORE QUESTIONABLE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST, BUT WIND PROFILES WILL STRONGLY FAVOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. ..THOMPSON/BENTLEY.. 03/14/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: at least they upped the sig tor risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 No upgrade from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 got to watch Chicago metro closely with the current "warm front" storms and the "dry line" cells later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Ominous look on visible satellite imagery in IL. Low level moisture still lacking a bit toward Chicago but there is still some time and we probably won't even need to get dewpoints into the 60s to have problems given the steep mid level lapse rates with partial clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Ominous look on visible satellite imagery in IL. Low level moisture still lacking a bit toward Chicago but there is still some time and we probably won't even need to get dewpoints into the 60s to have problems given the steep mid level lapse rates with partial clearing. I’m in eastern Kankakee county. Going to head home early to keep an eye on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Surprised by no upgrade to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 One things for sure these are "chasers", meaning they're going to chase you. That storm up by Sheridan IN has to cooking along at 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 instead of having 3 seperate threads might as well make this the main sever thread for the day...... so.. ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141647Z - 141815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA HAS WARMED 4 TO 5 F IN THE LAST HOUR DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE RECENT HEATING IN THIS AREA HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A REINVIGORATION OF LIGHTNING FROM SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SURFACE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL AND LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 55 TO 60 KNOTS AND 0-1 SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 PER GWX VWP. THEREFORE, THESE STORMS WILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS MATURE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 In fairness to the NWS, this is not your usual synoptic setup with the bomb cyclone moving through. Definitely a lot of factors went into the ingredients today to giving those cells the ability to rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 If storm evolution in real time is favorable before the mid afternoon update, wouldn’t be surprised to see a moderate for some part of the enhanced tornado risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Per visible a nice clearing is headed to CMH. We’ve had very little in the way of rain today except this morning early. Thinking Ohio is going to be a surprise later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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